Poll dancing: forecasting US Presidential elections

We’ll be sending a Zoom link to this virtual event closer to the event date.

TALK SUMMARY

Nate Silver and other forecasters have been using opinion poll data to predict who will win elections. From personal experience, I'm going to tell you how and why opinion polls can give wrong results, including explaining what went wrong in 2016. I'm going to go through the theory of poll aggregation and show you how these prediction models are built. Lastly, I'm going to demonstrate a Presidential election forecasting tool. The talk is a mixture of real experience, theory, and practical coding.

ABOUT THE SPEAKER

Mike Woodward has been analyzing data for over 20 years. He's worked in finance, radio communications, simulation software, chip design, business intelligence, cybersecurity, and fashion. He's published extensively and has spoken at conferences worldwide. Mike has degrees from British and American universities and is currently Senior Head of Analytics at True Fit.