Better Than Average: Monte Carlo Forecasting for Software Delivery

** IN PERSON **
Frolic Brewing Company
12910 Zuni St, #1300
Westminster, CO 80234

A Better Than Average Discussion: Using Monte Carlo Forecasting to Predict Confidence in Software Delivery with Jason B. Hill

Presentation Details:
Some topics we'll cover: The "flaw of averages," how a crowd of non-experts can make awkwardly accurate judgments by working together, and a high-level introduction to embracing randomness and predicting delivery confidence with Monte Carlo simulations.

Who should attend:

• You want to have a fun discussion with some neat, not-very-intuitive facts about randomness.
  - You want to predict team or train delivery with more confidence.
  - You're interested in learning how "Monte Carlo simulations" work. They've been a hot topic in Agile metrics for some time now.

Takeaways:
- We can embrace randomness and be better at planning: among our team, from week to week or quarter to quarter, etc.
- Averages (e.g., average cycle time, average WIP, average throughput) can be very misleading.
- Just like we can say that there is an 85% chance of rain before 6 PM today, we can say there is an 85% chance of a team/train delivering a product successfully before a specific date.

Bio: Jason B. Hill - He's a data scientist and has worked with Agile metrics for over 10 years. He is currently fun-employed.

Schedule:
6:00 - 6:30 PM Wood fire pizza, drinks and networking.
6:30 - 6:40 PM Quick Announcements/sponsor recognition
6:40 - 7:40 PM Presentation and Discussion
7:40 - 7:45 PM Final Questions and Wrap Up