Kanban CoP: Intro to Probabilistic Forecasting & Data-Driven Decision Making

Join us for the next installment in our Agile Denver Kanban Community of Practice series. Following our July session on Kanban and Flow metrics, we're now setting the stage for a comprehensive exploration of probabilistic forecasting and Monte Carlo simulations.

We'll start off with a refresher on cycle time basics, moving swiftly into how you can use scatter plots and percentiles to forecast single work items. We aim to break down complex statistical elements into bite-sized, understandable insights you can readily apply in your professional role.

Transitioning from single-item to multi-item forecasting, we'll explore the utility of Monte Carlo simulations. This approach will equip you with advanced techniques to better predict multiple work items' completion times, thereby elevating your ability to manage timelines and stakeholder expectations.

Among other resources, you'll get an in-depth look at Troy Magennis's forecasting spreadsheets from Focused Objective and a PowerBI template designed for Azure DevOps—both of which are available for free download. We'll also walk you through the features of the Actionable Agile Analytics Tool, to offer a rounded view of the tools at your disposal for forecasting.

Whether you're a newcomer to Agile methodologies or a Kanban expert, this meetup promises valuable insights to elevate your understanding of probabilistic forecasting and data-driven decision-making.

So save the date and come prepared to deepen your forecasting toolkit. An evening of learning, sharing, and discussion awaits, and we can't wait to explore these topics further with Denver's Agile and Kanban community.

In 2023, the Kanban Community of Practice is moving to the 1st Thursday of the month, with Public Meetups being held in January, April, July, and October

What is a Community of Practice?

A Community of Practice develops over time, by committed members engaging in many “informal conversations” about a shared domain of interest, creating a set of cases and stories that become a shared repertoire for their practice, whether they realize it or not. To learn a bit more about the concept of a "Community of Practice" check out this link. https://bit.ly/2YTyyZh

What is the Agile Denver Kanban CoP?

The Agile Denver Kanban CoP is a long-running meetup that started in June of 2011. We are a "Community of Practice, whose core members are practitioners that have regularly engaged with each other now over a number of years. Our meetups generally consist of us sharing our personal experiences and stories, and in the process learning from each other more about how to apply lean thinking, lean management (leadership), and agile principles, along with pull, flow, kanban, and system thinking concepts. Our specific focus is on how to catalyze and manage change, to improve business workflow processes, and to predictably forecast and answer the question “When will it be done?” We are associated with the broader Agile Denver (meetup) group, which has several other "special interest groups" (SIGs) associated with it, of which we are one. And we are also connected with the U.S. and global Lean Kanban community.

Please join the conversation on the #leankanban channel on the Agile Denver Slack!

Take care,

Ed Schaefer, Trevor Peterson and John Bannister