Harnessing the Power of Parallel Universes to Create Realistic Timelines

Are you stuck in lengthy meetings, converting story points to hours, relying on metrics like velocity, and still unable to reliably tell stakeholders when things will be done? If you need to create timelines or have contractual obligations to deliver features by a certain date, you need a reliable way to forecast completion. After trying various approaches, we’ve found a method that provides more accurate results with less effort than estimating in hours, ideal days, or story points.

In this session, we will introduce how we approach estimation using probabilistic forecasting with Monte Carlo simulations. We will share our journey of moving away from traditional planning towards a system based on managing flow and applying continuous forecasting. We’ll also discuss the impact this shift has had on developers, Product Owners, and stakeholders.

Speakers:
We are Lorenzo Santoro (Product Owner) and Benjamin Huser-Berta (Scrum Master), working at Hitachi Energy. In a traditional organization that operates in a conservative market, we strive to apply modern practices while acknowledging the needs of the organization and its customers. With our teams, we focus on continuous improvement based on data, without being tied to any specific framework, method, or practice—whatever helps us improve is what we should be doing.