Austin Sierra Club Climate Crisis Committee

Austin Sierra Club Climate Crisis Committee
(First Tuesday every month - date change)

Tuesday, July 6 at 7 pm on Zoom.
Connect on Zoom at: https://us02web.zoom.us/j/5133069449

Agenda:
15 min. – Announcements with brief description of action teams
45 min. – Program to be announced

Presentation: Bob Hendricks and Bruce Melton will talk about the astonishing new climate change solution developments with the Inflation Reduction Act!

Key carbon capture issues:

1. DAC & sequestration technologies are solid, just not scaled up; Developed in the early 20th century, 1907 and 1930

2. DAC currently costs over $100/ton at $0.03 kWh natural gas but cost/ton CO2 will come down: With $0.01 renewables at 87% energy - $39, and natural gas energy is almost free to the fossil fuel industrial complex w/ 10 percent carbon penalty.

3. Carbon capture at the flue technology is not too expensive and will come down much further - Successful at Petra Nova contrary to popular literature; 80 percent of of full-scale demonstration goals met in Houston for EOR, shut down when Covid oil went negative, and not started up because of typical demonstration project component issues. Next generation facility in design at 30% increased efficiency.

4. EOR generates net zero or slightly carbon negative oil & gas with normal CO2 recycling where, half of CO2 cannot be removed from the EOR well and the other half is stripped of its hydrocarbons and recycled to the next well. Leaving some of this "to be recycled" CO2 in the ground creates negative emissions which pay with 45Q or California Low Carbon Fuels Standard Sequestration Incentive, at rates double to quadruple costs of mining and transporting CO2 to the EOR wellhead.

5. Lots of DAC would help accelerate move to net zero and then is crucial to move to below 350 ppm, less than 1 C Sierra Club policy, which is necessary to restore healthy climate and stop tipping points/positive feedback loops.

Outline of Carbon Capture Presentation

1. Definitions – there is confusion/inconsistency even in articles by expert journalists (Bob)
   a. carbon capture, direct air capture, sequestration, enhanced oil recovery, carbon capture and utilization,
   b. Scenario Bias where of the 1,202 scenarios in IPCC Assessment Report 6 there are zero restoration scenarios, all are 1.5 C or warmer,
   c. The vast majority of science and reporting of science then, do not reflect restoration scenarios where carbon capture is paid for as a service to the commons.

2. Why do we need Technological Carbon Capture? [Bruce]
   a. Tipping is active and does not self-restore unless the warming perturbation is removed
   b. Consensus science is slow and reticent
   c. Dire need to reduce CO2 concentration to below 350 ppm to allow Earths' collapsing tipping systems to self-restore
   d. Amazon, Canadian Forests, Permafrost emitting plausibly 7 gt CO2eq annually.
   e. New - Australian tropical forests flipped to emissions; as yet unquantified, analog to Asian tropical forests,
   f. Natural sequestration cheaper but insufficient and impermanent.
   g. IPCC: We need to remove 1,000 Gt CO2 from the atmosphere by 2100 and achieve net zero by 2050 to achieve 1.5 C and still have tipping collapses become existential,
   h. The same 1,000 Gt by an earlier 2050, plus net zero 2050, allows cooling to below 1 C and tipping self-restoration.

3. What’s done with the captured CO2 [Bruce]
   a. Sequestration deep in the ground and offshore with added safety factor of thousands of feet of ocean above to absorb leaks,
   b. Climeworks in Iceland – Costs? What the market will bear?
   c. Enhanced oil recovery – myth about carbon neutral,
   d. Aviation or other net zero fuels – REME Report, parity at $3 gallon gasoline,
   e. Other uses – CO2 is a huge industrial product, but all utilization is only a teeny fraction of needed removals.

4. State of technology – feasibility and cost [Bruce]
   a. Capture at the flue – Petra Nova Demonstration Facility
   b. Direct air capture – Carbon Hubs

5. Changes to 45Q in Inflation Reduction Act [Bob]
   a. Capture at the flue
   b. Direct air capture

6. Two major directions, summary [Bob]
   a. Carbon negative oil & gas from EOR
   b. Direct Air Capture and near-permanent sequestration – 2 years to zero pressure in Iceland
   c. Bob’s reachable dream for DAC. IRA's $367B will reduce CO2e by 1 billion tons
   d. Bruce fossil fuel industrial complex experience: Race to $trillions

Image: Big Bend National Park ocotillo mortality from drought induced ocotillo borer attack.

Action Teams