Let’s Discuss Why Smart People Get Things Wrong

What if the smartest thing you could learn wasn’t how to be right, but how to get less wrong?

Every day, we make guesses about people, risks, and what will happen next. Then we become strangely attached to those guesses, even when the evidence starts throwing darts at us.

Bayesian thinking offers a better approach: begin with what seems likely, pay attention to new evidence, and keep adjusting your aim. Miss badly. Learn something. Get closer. Update again. Maybe hit the bullseye. At the very least, put fewer holes in the wall.

In "Everything Is Predictable," Tom Chivers reveals how a 250-year-old mathematical idea helps explain everything from medical diagnoses and scientific discoveries to artificial intelligence and the workings of the human mind. It isn’t really a book about becoming certain. It’s about becoming more curious, more flexible, and much harder to fool.

No mathematical brilliance required. Just bring your assumptions - and prepare to update them.