Polycrisis, What Polycrisis?

Polycrisis, What Polycrisis?
How do you feel about the state of the world at the moment?
We have polarized politics, wars, climate worries, ‘alternative’ facts, crumbling institutions, people stuck in social media echo chambers unable to debate with others. There’s the threat of nuclear proliferation. Oh, and we’re experimenting with autonomous, armed AI drone swarms that communicate via a network called Skynode. And don’t get me started on potholes…
The term polycrisis, popularized by historian Adam Tooze, isn’t just about having "many problems." It is about interconnectedness.

• The Concept: A polycrisis occurs when multiple global systems (finance, climate, geopolitics, health) become so entangled that they "feed" off each other. Solving one often worsens another.
• Key Argument: We are not in a "normal" crisis where we can expect to return to a baseline "stable" state. The shocks are now compounding.

Those are the arguments for saying we are in a polycrisis. But are things different? And what are the lessons from history?

First, let me introduce the concept of a ‘time between worlds’. Briefly this is a time when things don’t make sense. Human society to a degree may break down though this has historically been the prelude to re-making society. This video explains this and other ideas in more detail but is optional – I found it personally useful to get some creative juices flowing though I recommend you stop at 12:30 as he goes on to talk about a climate ‘metacrisis’ and has some dubious utopian ideas.

Historical "Times Between Worlds"
The 14th Century: The Collapse of the Feudal Order
This is perhaps the closest historical parallel to a polycrisis. It wasn't just one thing; it was everything failing at once.

• The Shocks: The "Little Ice Age" caused massive crop failures; the Hundred Years' War drained treasuries; and the Black Death wiped out a third of Europe’s population.
• The "Between Worlds" Aspect: The Church lost its monopoly on "sense-making" because it couldn't stop the plague. Feudalism died because labor became scarce and expensive.
• The Result: Out of this chaos, the Renaissance and the early modern state were born.

The 17th Century: The "General Crisis"
Historians refer to the mid-1600s as a period of global instability.

• The Shocks: The Thirty Years' War in Europe, the collapse of the Ming Dynasty in China, and the English Civil War. All occurred during a period of extreme climatic cooling.
• The "Between Worlds" Aspect: It was the transition from religious-based empires to the Westphalian system of nation-states.
• The Result: The birth of the scientific revolution and the modern concept of sovereignty.

1914–1945: The Great Rupture
The first half of the 20th century was a 30-year period of nonstop systemic shock.

• The Shocks: WWI, the Spanish Flu, the Great Depression, the rise of Totalitarianism, and WWII.
• The "Between Worlds" Aspect: The 19th-century world of European colonial empires and "laissez-faire" capitalism was dying, but the "New World" of globalism and nuclear deterrence hadn't arrived yet.
• The Result: The creation of the UN, the Bretton Woods system, and the "Long Peace."

Q1/ Opening thoughts? Lessons from the above epochs? Are there other historical epochs that are relevant here?

Q2/ Is "Polycrisis" a new phenomenon, or are we simply better at documenting it? (i.e., Did the 14th century feel like a "time between worlds" during the Black Death and the fall of feudalism?)

Q3/ Does the term "Polycrisis" empower us to act, or does it paralyze us by making the world’s problems seem insurmountable?

Are We in a Liminal Epoch?

• The Concept: One world (the post-WWII liberal order, the industrial-capitalist model) is dying, but the new world has not yet been born.
• The Crisis of Meaning: Because the old "operating system" (our education, our logic of growth, our political structures) no longer works, we are experiencing a breakdown in how we make sense of reality.
• The Educational Challenge: It’s argued that we cannot solve current problems with the same level of thinking that created them. We are "between worlds" because our current institutions are "zombie institutions"—they exist, but they have no life or future.

Q4/ If we are "between worlds," can we actually "fix" our current institutions, or must we let them collapse to make room for something else?

Q5/ What are the key institutions? (We pick this point up in more detail in the questions towards the end).

Trust – Have We Stopped Believing in "The System"?
Recent data (2025–2026) shows a "Great Switch-Off" from mainstream institutions.

• The Stats: Over 70% of people now believe that government leaders, CEOs, and journalists are purposely trying to mislead them.
• The Trust Inequality: We are seeing a "double-digit trust gap." High earners still generally trust the legal and financial systems, while low-income groups report record levels of distrust, feeling that "the system" is designed to favor the elite and insulate them from the polycrisis.
• The Legal System: While judges historically enjoyed higher trust than politicians, this is "spilling over." In 2026, the legal system is increasingly seen not as an arbiter of justice, but as a political tool. This creates a "Lawfare" mindset, where every court ruling is viewed through a partisan lens rather than a legal one.

The Loss of "Thick Trust"
Sociologists distinguish between "thin trust" (trusting someone you know) and "thick trust" (trusting a system, like a bank or a court, to work even if you don't know the people in it).

• The Crisis: We are currently losing "thick trust." When people don't believe the rules are fair, they stop playing the game—leading to tax evasion, civil disobedience, and the rise of parallel, unregulated economies (like crypto or local barter networks).

Algorithmic "Truth"
Social media platforms are not designed to inform us; they are designed to capture our attention.

• The Feedback Loop: Engagement-based algorithms prioritize content that triggers strong emotions (outrage, fear, or tribal pride). If you engage with a post questioning the legal system, the algorithm will serve you ten more, eventually creating a "Filter Bubble."
• The Result: Two people can live in the same city but inhabit two entirely different "realities." One sees a world of progress and necessary reform; the other sees a world of corruption and inevitable collapse. This is the Epistemic Crisis—the death of a shared truth.

On social media, "moderate" or "nuanced" voices are effectively invisible because they don't generate clicks.

• The Echo Chamber: These digital spaces reinforce our existing biases. We don't just "disagree" with the other side anymore; we view them as fundamentally deluded or evil. In a polycrisis, this makes the compromise required for survival almost impossible.
• We are seeing a rise in Avoidance Behaviour. People are so exhausted by the "doom" that they are retreating into insular, private lives, ignoring global events entirely. This further weakens the "political system" because the most informed or sensitive citizens are opting out of the conversation.

Q6/ How much is social media and the like to blame for how things feel/are at the moment? Is it a convenient scapegoat?

The Psychology of Uncertainty

• The Concept: Humans are biologically wired to seek certainty. In a polycrisis, the "unknown unknowns" create a state of permanent collective trauma and "sense-making" failure.
• The Trap: When people feel the world no longer makes sense, they often retreat into authoritarianism, conspiracy theories, or radical nostalgia (trying to force the "old world" back into existence).

Q7/ Are we falling into the trap?

Q8/ If culture is a glue that holds society together. Does modern society destroy critical elements of culture?

Further Questions
Political & Social
Q9/ In a time of extreme uncertainty, is democracy a liability or a necessity? (Can slow, deliberative processes handle rapid, compounding shocks?)

Q10/ How much of our "uncertainty" is caused by physical scarcity (climate/resources) versus a "crisis of the spirit" or a lack of imagination?

Q11/ Is the rise of global populism a cause of the polycrisis, or is it a predictable symptom of a world that no longer makes sense to its citizens?

The "Future" World
Q12/ If the old world was defined by "Growth," what is the core value of the "New World" waiting to be born? (Sustainability? Resilience? Connection?)

Q13/ As AI begins to automate "sense-making," do we risk losing the very human capacity needed to navigate a "Time Between Worlds"?

And…
Q14/ If previous ‘Times Between Worlds’ were solved by moving to a larger scale of organization (Tribes ➔ Kingdoms ➔ Nation States), what is the next scale of organization for a global polycrisis—and is it even possible?

If you want to prompted a bit more I got AI to give some thoughts on why we may or may not be living in unprecedented times. This is optional and you may want to do your thinking first before reading.

Why it is NOT different (The "Same Old Story" Argument)

• Institutional Lag: History shows that human institutions (laws, governments) always evolve slower than technology and environment. We are simply in the "lag" phase.
• Sense-Making Failures: In every crisis, people lose faith in the "official" story. The 14th-century peasant losing faith in the Church is very similar to the 2026 citizen losing faith in mainstream media or experts.
• Resource Limits: Just as the 14th-century world hit the limits of feudal land production, we are hitting the limits of carbon-based industrialism.

Why it IS different (The "Unprecedented" Argument)

• Planetary Scale: Previous crises were regional. The 14th-century plague didn't affect the Americas; the 17th-century crisis didn't stop life in the Pacific. Today’s polycrisis is globally synchronized via the internet and supply chains.
• The Velocity of Change: In the past, "times between worlds" lasted 50 to 100 years, giving generations time to adapt. Today, technological shifts (like the AI explosion) happen in months, not decades.
• Existential vs. Catastrophic Risk: In the 14th century, the human race wasn't at risk of extinction, even if civilization was. Today, with nuclear weapons, bio-engineering, and climate tipping points, the stakes are "game over" rather than just "new game."
• Non-Human Intelligence: For the first time in history, we are navigating a crisis while creating a non-human intelligence (AI) that can influence our sense-making and decision-making.