Rocket Science meets Bayesian Models: Space risks - small binary data

Abstract:
Space launch vehicles are high risk items with binary outcomes. However, the numbers of launch attempts are limited and so we have a small data set with which to work. Additionally, the heritage of a particular launch vehicle design can span many decades and the risk is far from constant. We will be looking at how I have tackled this problem, solutions to some of the problems encountered and the test and evaluation methodology applied. These issues and solutions are not space risk specific but have generalised application to many binary outcome problems.