Brighton De-Growth Research Group

Calling all Rebels, Outsiders, Risk Takers, Mavericks and Geeks !!!

Join us to start a new Local Discussion, Research and Planning Group
aiming to respond to Global Energy and Resource Depletion together with the Global Community of Local De-Growth Groups.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18Z7kTs0smhOU9S3DyGNJ_MBQeu3XKW2qdxa3unOEn6I/edit?gid=0#gid=0

When and where would you like to start meeting and discussing theses ideas? Please post a messages below ... thanks!

To start with perhaps we need to develop a shared understanding of what the global energy and resources supply chains landscape actually looks like within the bounds set here TODAY by physics and geology before we can begin hatching future plans on how we can best manage our predicament:-

In particular that we're over half way through fossil fuels: the irreplaceable High Energy Density foundational resource upon which all modern economies have been built on our “Pale Blue Dot – the only home we've ever known”.

There are many possible ideas waiting to be discussed and explored on this journey scoping out the local impacts and range of paths we can explore trying to establish just and rational local action plans in response to inevitable De-Growth.

Remember this is a predicament, not a problem with a solution that will yield to the wave of a magic wand by pointing to this or that supposed new technology that will magically scale up and fix everything so we can get back to business as usual: non stop industrial growth on a finite planet.

De-Growth – Details, Perspectives, and some Analysis

• As Carl Sagan noted: “Science is more than a body of knowledge. It’s a way of thinking, a way of skeptically interrogating the universe, with a fine understanding of human fallibility. If we are not able, as a people, to ask skeptical questions, to be skeptical of those in authority, then we’re up for grabs by the next charlatan who comes along, political, religious, or otherwise.” — Carl Sagan, to Charlie Rose, May 27, 1996

• Nate Hagens is joined by Balázs Matics, the author of the popular Substack blog The Honest Sorcerer: to explore the systemic reasons behind civilization's potential collapse, the importance of energy security, and the growing effects of geopolitical instability. Balázs emphasizes the overlooked importance of industrial inputs such as diesel fuel, and the implications of this as more parts of the world face resource scarcities. Together, they also discuss the possibilities of more localized production and communities rooted in compassion and cooperation as ways to navigate a post-growth future.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JRrOaFaQ82U

• Professor Tom Murphy: “The bedrock question of whether economic growth can last, with the question of whether modernity can last: I would seriously question our ability to preserve what we call modernity without fossil fuels. Not only do we lack a demonstration anywhere in the world of a fossil-free modern society, we also have no clear paths to mine, manufacture, transport, and feed at today’s scale without fossil fuels. For instance, we have not built renewable technologies without substantial assistance from fossil fuels.
Modernity rose to its current magnificence on the back of fossil fuels, and could very well ride the pulse back to zero. Live by the sword, die by the sword.” — Professor emeritus of Physics, Astronomy & Astrophysics at the University of California, San Diego. 1
https://dothemath.ucsd.edu/2023/09/can-modernity-last/

• Alice Friedemann: “Limits to Growth? A 2016 United Nations report provides best evidence yet – a summary that ought to scare the pants off of anyone who understands exponential growth. In order to accommodate an additional 2 billion people in 2050, material consumption will need to nearly triple to 180 billion tonnes of materials, almost three times today’s amount. Between 1970 and 2010, the global economy expanded more than 3-fold, population almost doubled from 3.7 to 6.9 billion, and global material extraction went from 22 billion to 70.1 billion tonnes. From 2000 to 2010 all materials except biomass accelerated their extraction growth rate: fossil fuels grew by 2.9% per year on average, metal ores 3.5%, and non-metallic minerals by 5.3%.” — Systems analyst/engineer in health care, banking, and transportation.
https://energyskeptic.com/2017/limits-to-growth-2016-united-nations-report-provides-best-evidence-yet/

• Professor Michael Kelly: “Britain’s plans to decarbonise the economy have not been properly thought through, and there is a dangerous lack of systems and project engineering input. Replacing fossil fuels with electricity from renewables is impractical on the timescale of 2050: “It’s clear that there has been little or no systems engineering input into the plans. How can we possibly proceed further along the renewables path when we lack any technology to store electricity at scale? How can we hope to electrify transport when we would need to consume the whole global annual supply of several important minerals to do so, just for the UK?” — Emeritus professor of technology in the Department of Engineering at the University of Cambridge.
https://thegwpf.org/new-paper-decarbonisation-plans-fail-engineering-reality-check/

• Professor Simon P. Michaux: “Transformation of the Industrial System, a web site of all the work published by Simon P. Michaux who's developing a plan to transform our relationship between energy, minerals, and industrialization, as the existing proposed strategic plans are shown to be logistically impractical. Oil, gas, and coal all have unique applications that the current industrial system is dependent on. The current renewable transition technologies are unable to address and replace these applications. Current renewable energy systems generally have a lower Energy Returned on Energy Invested ratios (ERoEI) than current fossil fuel-based systems. They may not be productive enough to replace fossil fuels. As such, they may not be the energy foundation for the next industrial era, but a steppingstone to some other kind of energy generation system not yet identified. Both current mining production (2019) and current stated global mineral reserves (2022) cannot provide sufficient metal to manufacture only one generation of renewable technology units (EV’s, H-cells, batteries, wind turbines and solar panels).” – Senior Scientist at Geological Survey of Finland/Geologian Tutkimuskeskus, Circular Economy Solutions Unit KTR, Bach. App Sc (physics & geology), PhD. Mining Eng.
https://www.simonmichaux.com/

More information here:-

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1BKrLgym4fzQPgNF4Ps7vHhiVn4FnN_zX/view?usp=drive_link