Networking Drinks For Investors\Entrepreneurs\Traders\Strategists FREE

Monthly informal social & networking over drinks, share informed views on state of markets & economies and how we are positioned in terms of short to medium term investments. Depending on level of knowledge of others - we may also touch on broader topics in British and American govt & politics and policy implications for our jobs, cost of living & inequality.

Main objective will be to share our thoughts (it's always useful to hear contrarian views and most critically the why), your favourite/most reliable signals/indicators/strategies and coming away with some potential investment ideas. But let's not forget this will be a social so we'll have some much needed fun & banter as well!

Some potential market impacting themes & latest hot global political & macroeconomic developments to ponder:

1. Government & central banks policy tightening and implications for global asset prices (stocks, currencies, crypto, commodities, bond yields, property) and outlook for inflation, employment & economic growth
2. Current valuations and bear market duration. The biggest "everything bubble" finally began to unwind Q4 2021 with NDX down -35% & some tech stocks down -90%. Market timing is a fool's game but have we seen capitulation lows yet? Highly unlikely - don't believe the narrative self interested "experts" spin.
3. As a US presidential candidate on the campaign trail once mocked the incumbent: "it's the economy stupid". My leading indicators predicting major contraction if not outright global recession. Apart from the Bank of England, are the ECB/Fed in denial? The 3000+ PhD economists can't all be useless or maybe it's just Jay? Never get a lawyer whose decisions negatively affects billions of people globally to do such an important job (what was congress/president thinking appointing him and for that matter Yellen & Bernanke who just won the Nobel prize for flawed policies that created some of the problems and inequality we face today)
4. Geo political events including but not limited to Russian invasion, India alliance & war III talk, Taiwan invasion by China, US economic war talk with Saudi
5. My proprietary macro indicators/model forecasting major earnings contraction driven by a global recession and high business costs. So seeing fair value for stocks at much lower multiples (PE) whilst ponzinomics scam crypto intrinsic value worth zero though - given high volatility - ok for short term swing trading but watch out below! Japan is now even more fucked with their failed 30 year QE experiment delivering a 50 year low valueless Yen. Is a FX mean reversion trade worth a punt? With the Euro near dollar parity is the failed EU project likely to follow suit soon? Sterling looks vulnerable here too on a fundamental basis
6. Market Sentiment & Earnings. Spurred by recency bias, it seems many who never traded in a pre GFC regime have been buying the dips. Beware of the high correlation between growth contraction & lower company earnings / misses / EPS revisions. Yes sentiment/investor psychology can matter short term but profitability ultimately drive prices, even extreme oversold signals on technicals can lose predictive power depending on market regime & levels of risk aversion.
7. UK interest rate rises / monetary policy tightening and implications. BOE's governer blaming everything from Ukraine to sunspot activity for UK ecionomic weakness! Liz Truss's nonsensical stimulas policy now gone but QE and low rates created our inflation & pension funds crisis - not the mini budget. As Public Enemy once rapped: "Don't believe the hype"
8. Policy tightening depth & credibility reassertion. Mkts pricing in rates to 5% along with QT. If inflation persists - a deep global recession will be the price we have to pay. Many expect CBs to pivot but with inflation forecasts nowhere near target & unemployment well below level consistent with price stability (NAIRU), why would they? This is not 2012 nor 2018 - the only thing that has pivoted is the economic paradigm with the nearest parallels - UK/US/Europe in 70s/80s. The best empirical evidence shows high inflation damages long term growth and makes the poor even poorer. An asset price mandate doesn't exist: Perma bulls should reap their own advice: Don't Fight the Fed
9. Risks from new Covid variants. China lockdown of cities like Shanghai? Taiwan war talk. Something not right - ulterior motives to cripple global economy & further add to supply constraints to aid Putin's war? Who knows - as Philosopher Socrates once graciously said "I know nothin". Join the club brethren

Lucas (Economist, Strategist, Trader/Investor, Ex London News Room Reuters Correspondent covering breaking high level global economics & politics until I got bored)
DISCLAIMER- Nothing written here or any views shared at the event should be construed as investment or trading advice