Networking Drinks For Traders | Economists | Investors | Market Analysts FREE

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Monthly informal social & networking over drinks to share views on state of markets & economies, drivers and how we are positioned investment and trading wise over the next year. Depending on level of knowledge of participants - we may also touch on broader macroeconomic topics in British and American politics and and aggregate implications from policies for our jobs, cost of living & inequality.

Main objective will be to share our thoughts, hear contrarian views and most critically the underlying why) your favourite/most reliable signals/indicators/strategies and coming away with some potential investment ideas. But let's not forget this will be a social so we'll have some much needed fun & banter as well.

Some potential market impacting themes & latest hot global political & economic developments to ponder:

Government & central banks policy loosening and implications for global asset prices (stocks, currencies, crypto, commodities, bond yields, property) and outlook for inflation, employment & economic growth
Current valuations and bull market duration. The biggest "everything bubble" unwound in 2022 with a bear market but now we are back at all time highs. Market timing is a fool's game but when are we gonna top? What's happened to that elusive US recession - were the soft landers right? What are the leading indicators you follow telling you?
As a Democratric US presidential candidate on the campaign trail once mocked the incumbent: "it's the economy stupid". Aside from normal people who are done with this fake PC snowflake movement that causes more problems than it solves, it's one reason why Trump won the House and Senate. Cost of living aside, US growth is still stong - those useless 3000+ PhD economists not only didn't see the inflation coming first time, but may well miss it a second. Fed has paused just as Trump says he will force more rate cuts whilst bringing inflation down - delusional when it comes to economics.
My proprietary macro indicators/model was forecasting earnings contraction driven by a global recession, tighter monetary policy & higher business costs (interesst rates) and although this has now reversed, stocks are way above fair value on almost all metrics (PE multiples), though I still see ponzinomics scam crypto intrinsic value as zero though given high volatility - good for swing trading! Japan is now even more fucked with their failed 30 year QE experiment delivering a 50 year low valueless Yen. If the Fed cuts more or BOJ increases than the Yen carry trade could see another sell off. Is a FX mean reversion trade worth a punt? With the Euro near dollar parity is the failed EU project likely to follow suit soon?
Market Sentiment & Earnings. Spurred by recency bias, it seems many who never traded in a pre GFC regime have brought all the dips. But with interest rates now normalized - this is no longer the same post GFC economic regime. The high correlation between growth contraction & lower company earnings / misses / EPS revisions is still there, Fundamentals will become priority, and so will firms cutting jobs and using Gen AI to mantain corporate margins. Yes sentiment/psychology can matter short term but profitability ultimately drive prices, even extreme oversold signals on technicals can lose predictive power depending on market regime & levels of risk aversion.
UK Budget and monetary policy lossening. I was expecting a pro growth accelerator instead Rachael from accounts is driving us back into recession. I knew Labour were stupid but didnt know by how much. Black holes, growth, Liz Truss & more lies. As Public Enemy once rapped: "Don't believe the hype". On fundamentals - sterling looks vulnerable here plus our headline inflation is still below US.
Rates Policy and credibility reassertion. Mkts pricing in rates to drop but how can they with strong GDP else higher inflation will be back. Yes they might want to get back to neutural levels consistent with 2% price stability (NAIRU) but memories of the 70s is still linger in Powell's head. For a lawyer, he's not that stupid - the best empirical evidence shows high inflation damages long term growth and makes the poor even poorer. An asset price mandate doesn't exist: Perma bulls should reap their own advice: Don't Fight the Fed, stop selling bonds (yields literally climbing as I write this)
Risks from geo political events including but not limited to ongoing Russian, Isreal, Iran conflicts, China - Taiwan, N Korea, larger middle east war - all of this could cripple the global economy, effect supply chains, drive up inflation and cause another global recession. Who knows - as Philosopher Socrates once graciously said "I know nothin". Join the club brethren