Well, Presidents Trump and Xi just signed a kind of temporary truce in their trade war. By most accounts we were losing, anyway. But it is not over. Mercantilist trade hostilities may resume anytime. Our trade conflicts with Beijing are very real. But, since Trump started the trade war it is at least theoretically capable of being unwound quickly. I will update everybody on the latest developments to open our meeting.

China's conflicts with the USA and the West go far deeper than Trump's tariff tantrums, unfortunately. China's foreign policy has grown more and more aggressive since Xi Jinping consolidated power a decade ago. Threats against Taiwan and a huge military buildup. Aggression against multiple neighbors, both on land (e.g., India) and at sea (Philippines, Vietnam, others). China now routinely uses its economic and financial clout to challenge the West.

Some say China's goal is to grow its soft power and hard power and to use both to mold a new world order that is more authoritarian-friendly, with China at its center. Others say Beijing is less ambitious and more realistic than that. Either way, listing all of the Sino-U.S. conflicts and potential flashpoints would take all day.

At the same time, under Donald Trump U.S. global influence is in rapid decline, and our allies are making other plans. I believe we are entering a very dangerous time internationally. Miscalculations, miscommunications, the temptations of new weaponry and financial tools, or just plain reckless gambles could easily lead, if not to direct war, then to local or regional wars and/or economic ruin. China is confident. Trump pretends to be confident. Ack!

OTOH, neither side wants war. Many analysts believe China's rise can be accommodated peacefully if we want to and are willing to recognize that global politics does not have to be a zero-sum game. Lastly, there will be both a post-Xi and a post-Trump transition, and maybe the odds of open conflict will fall when they occur.

For CivCon, I think our best approach to a complicated topic like this (sorry, but some important things are also complex) has to start with a basic understanding of what has been happening in Sino-U.S. conflicts and the big picture relationship. My opening remarks on 11/17 will focus mainly on that. The readings provided give details/POV on the big picture of China's successes, stability, and goals.

**Optional Backgrounders –**

0 **World Affairs Discussion Group**, David’s other Meetup, did a related topic just last month. [Will the China Model outcompete and overtake democratic capitalism?](https://www.meetup.com/the-world-affairs-discussion-group/events/311280180/?eventOrigin=group_events_list) See intro & these key links:
\- Yes it will\. [China will dominate the 21st century because its massive success will endure](https://www.foreignaffairs.com/china/real-china-model-wang-kroeber?utm_medium=newsletters&utm_source=twofa&utm_campaign=&utm_content=20251004&utm_term=FA%20This%20Week_Newsletter). (Free to read but you must give Foreign Affairs Mag. your email.)
\-\- No\. [China is NOT an existential threat](https://thediplomat.com/2025/09/what-china-wants-with-global-governance/) to the Western-dominated global order. [Shorter version](https://www.wilsoncenter.org/article/fallacy-chinese-alternative-western-order) of this POV.

0 **CivCon** did Monday's topic 2022 (after Trump I but pre-Trump II). [USA and China – Containment, Coexistence, or war?](https://civilizedconversation.wordpress.com/2022/02/18/mondays-mtg-2-21-22-usa-and-china-containment-co-existence-or-war/) Key link: China doesn’t want war; [it wants to be a free-riding, status quo superpower](https://thediplomat.com/2018/03/chinas-quest-to-be-a-status-super-power/).

0 **Trump**: [He is ceding the future to China](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/were-number-two?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=277517&post_id=177836921&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=y8p0k&triedRedirect=true&utm_medium=email) out of foolishness, says Krugman. [A conservative economist says the same thing](https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/trump-is-enabling-chinese-power?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=35345&post_id=168447411&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=y8p0k&triedRedirect=true) even more bluntly.

0 **War**: We should discuss chances of deliberate AND accidental war, plus the dangers of war during autocrat succession periods (in BOTH China and USA).

DavidG

Civilized Conversation of San Diego

Science & Education

History

Debate

Progressive Politics

Intellectual Discussions

Politics

International Relations

Philosophy

National Politics

Social Issues

Critical Thinking

Religion

Conversation

U.S. Politics

Are the USA and China sliding towards war - or accommodation?

China

Foreign Policy Topics

Panera Bread

Share

Civilized Conversation of San Diego

Are the USA and China sliding towards war - or accommodation?

Civilized Conversation of San Diego

Details

Members are also interested in