Is AI really "I" and will it ever be? Do people overestimate its abilities?

Artificial intelligence is coming to dominate more and more in business practices and in our personal lives - i.e., people's personal searches for knowledge, analyses, and even opinions. Already CivCon has devoted several evenings to AI. See here and here and a long but superb link here.

It seems time again to revisit AI, especially since AI data center building and AI-related companies' stock values are basically propping up the stock market - and probably our economy.

There are many more questions about AI we have not gotten to, and also more than your non-tech group organizer can come up with. Still, based on recent readings and what I see and experience, a few hugely important questions come to mind. Everybody talks about Q1 and Q2, But I wonder whether people are missing the huge implications of Q3 and Q4.

1. AI vs. AGI vs ?? Is what we routinely call artificial intelligence at all similar to real, human intelligence? Most experts believe it is not. Yet opinions differ on when - and if - today's AI will sooner or later become the real thing: Human-like intelligence, with all of its many facets and complexities. This term for this is AGI, or artificial general intelligence.
2. The bubble. Maybe as much as 90% of net GDP growth in 2025 was related to building AI training data centers. When will the bubble pop, and how bad will it be and for whom?
3. Hyper-concentration: What are the implications of AI/AGI being in the hands of a VERY small number of gigantic tech companies, especially since many of their owners have highly ideological political views that they are building their AIs to reflect (it is NOT just Elon Musk, BTW)?
4. Naivety: Today's AI is a powerful tool with many practical uses. But do regular people overestimate how smart it is, and do they rely too naively on AI results for information and analysis?

If you have any expertise in this field, your attendance and suggested readings would be particularly welcome.

Optional Backgrounders –

Some ABC-level explainers:
o What do “AI” and “AGI” mean (or are supposed to mean)?
o How do large language models (LLMs) work? (7m video)
o The AI boom: Vast and deadly. AI bubble could ruin economy even if AI is a very useful technology! Either recommended.

Will/how will AI change the world?
o AI won’t change the world as much as people think. 2023.
o AI is “mere imitation,” so effects won’t be terrible, just not as revolutionary as we think. Recommended.
o Biz use: It could be huge. Or is this guy right, between his semi-comical, semi-serious insults?
o KEY: This list needs some more optimistic links, but let’s let any data sci members help us with that.

How regular people use AI:
o Who uses ChatGPT and how? Sum of 9/25 study by its maker.
o As a social technology, it may be a disaster, at least for a while. Recommended.
o People wildly overestimate the value/accuracy of AI output. Highly Recommended NYT via another site.
o How we use AI could radically reduce the internet’s usefulness - by making it linkless.

Democracy: AI could help democracy – but only if not controlled by oligarchs. 2023. (There are other POVs of course.)