Is AI really "I" and will it ever be? Do people overestimate its abilities?

Artificial intelligence is coming to dominate more and more in business practices and in our personal lives - i.e., people's personal searches for knowledge, analyses, and even opinions. Already CivCon has devoted several evenings to AI. See here and here and a long but superb link here.

It seems time again to revisit AI, especially since AI data center building are now basically propping up the stock market and our economy.

There are many more questions about AI we have not gotten to, and also more than your non-tech group organizer can come yup with. Still, based on recent readings and what I see and experience, a few hugely important questions come to mind. Everybody talks about Q1 and Q2, But I wonder whether people are missing the huge implications of Q3 and Q4.

1. AI vs. AGI vs ?? Is what we routinely call artificial intelligence at all similar to real, human intelligence? Most experts believe it is not. Yet opinions differ on when - and if - today's AI will one day sooner or later become the real thing: Human-like intelligence, with all of its many facets and complexities. This intelligence, or something akin to it, is called AGI, or artificial general intelligence.
2. On the bubble. And AI investment basically has been propping up the stock market and the economy. Around 90% of net GDP growth in 2025 was related to building AI training data centers. When will the bubble pop, and how bad will it be and for whom?
3. Hyper-concentration: Okay, more obvious Qs. Like, what are the implications of AI/AGI being in the hands of a VERY small number of gigantic tech companies, especially since many of their owners have highly ideological political views that they are building their AIs to reflect (NOT just Elon Musk, BTW)?
4. Naivety: Today's AI is a powerful tool with many practical uses. But do regular people overestimate how smart it is, and do they rely too naively on AI for information and analysis and even opinions?

Check back here the week before the mtg on 1/12 for some background readings that make understanding AI more accessible or argue answers to the above Qs. If you have any expertise in this field, your attendance and suggested readings would be particularly welcome.

Optional Backgrounders –

• TBD, but try these for now.
• Q1: AI cannot reproduce human intelligence because they have no living cells or bodies. Simple but key pt., or is it?
• Q1: A brutal takedown of AI as a personal and business tool! Very sarcastic and a bit mean, but is it true?
• Q2: The bubble could burst even if AI is doing well.
• Q4: AI simulates so well many people naively believe its results. Recommended.
• Q4: Thorough takedown of using AI. From our last AI mtg. True/Fair?