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In 40 years observing U.S. foreign policy, I have seen only a handful of major pivots to its basic contours. After Vietnam, the USA switched from confronting Communism directly to indirectly, via proxy wars, detente, and arms control. After 9/11, President Bush invented a new doctrine of "preventative war," which basically meant that the United States said it had the right to go to war not preemptively, to stop an imminent or near future attack, but to prevent any nation from arming itself to challenge us in the future. Preventative War doctrine was used to justify the war on Iraq. Arguably, there were 1-2 radical changes in our foreign policy since WWII.

But President Trump's new "National Security Strategy" is just astounding. If it is not meant mainly as performative verbiage, then it is the most radical, shocking reordering of America's place and role in the world...ever, to my knowledge.

If it is real. Meaning, this administration's policies are famously erratic contradictory, and temporary. They often get ignored or reversed later, sometimes not much later. The NSS reads like Stephen Miller wrote it, but it apparently was written almost single-handedly by a little-known aid, Michael Anton, who has since left the govt. Regardless, right now it is official policy for Hegseth at DOD, Rubio at State, the intelligence community, our trade negotiators, and every other part of our foreign policy / national security apparatus.

Our war with Venezuela and threats against Latin America all fit nicely into the NSS framework. So does Greenland and the recent announcement that the USG will create a strategic rare earth stockpile. The rest of the word, especially Europe, which the NSS insults and dismisses, sure takes it all seriously.

Yet at home the new NSS has received almost no public attention. For the basics, I for the moment refer you to, say, this summary by a stunned historian right after the NSS was issued on December 4th, 2025. Or try Experts react: What Trump’s National Security Strategy means for US foreign policy. It links to brief comments by experts - some are fairly positive on at least some aspects of the new strategy, or at least not uniformly negative.

I will post some more links about the NSS and its implications, later in the week.

Optional Backgrounders –

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AI summary

By Meetup

Analysis of the Trump administration’s radical foreign security plan; aimed at policy readers and signaling major shifts in U.S. foreign policy.

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