Book Club: Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction

“The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow.”—Jason Zweig, The Wall Street Journal
Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week’s meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts’ predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught?

In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people—including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer—who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They’ve beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They’ve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters."
In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group.

Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future—whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life—and is destined to become a modern classic.

About CPL Book Club:

This monthly gathering's mission is simple: to explore profound opinions and accounts of our nation’s and the world’s most critical issues through in-depth books. But it’s not just about reading - it’s about embracing diverse perspectives, sparking discussions, and sharing thoughts with fellow explorers of knowledge.

What you’ll get out of book club: our hope is for you to dare to dive deep, analyzing topics and navigating the twists and turns of politics together. If you share a passion for continuous learning and want to explore the intricacies of our world’s challenges, then this club is your intellectual haven (or entry) into finding out more.

How It Works:

• Members will propose books by adding them to this list.

Where To Find the Books:

We promise that all the books we will discuss will be available online, in bookstores and in most cases, in your local library. Most will be available in hardcopy, audiobook, and e-book. Please consider borrowing the books from your local library. If you find purchasing new copies of the books beyond your budget, we encourage you to look for used copies, which you are likely to find online at Powell’s Bookstore, ThriftBooks, or on Amazon (listed below the hardcover or paperback prices).

Please do your best to arrive at the beginning of the meeting – once we are in breakout rooms and the conversations have started, the meeting doors close to new arrivals. The breakout rooms open (and the doors close) approximately 15 minutes after the hour.

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