The Future Backwards: A Sense-Making Method for Complex Adaptive Human Systems

Shared Learning Room 531 in the Austin Central Public Library

This meetup will be focused on a method called The Future Backwards. We will be working in small teams on a complex challenge. If you have one in mind that everyone can contribute to, please post a comment (e.g. immigration policy, trade, privacy, Austin traffic, ...). This is subject to change but for now think "US trade relations with China" is a good enough topic. I think everyone will have opinions and some knowledge about the current state of affairs.

Here is a short description about the method from the paper we discussed previously by Kurtz and Snowden.

"In this method, we ask people to describe the history of an organization, society, or event, always working backwards from the present (to any starting time they think is appropriate). We ask them to determine turning points (moments when small events caused large changes), write them simply on hexagonal sticky notes, and array them on a wall. (We prefer hexagonal notes because people tend to cluster them in beehive shapes, while people tend to categorize square notes.) When the factual history is complete, we then ask people to choose two extreme states, one positive and one negative; each of these must be utterly inconceivable. They then work backwards (always backwards, to avoid entrained “what usually comes next” thinking) with fictional timelines to reach points on the factual timeline. These connection points are not determined in advance, but emerge from the growing reverse fiction. The turning points may then be considered and described, listing, for example, actors, communities, and factors in play during those moments."