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(German version and talk summary below)

We are excited to invite you to our next meetup which will feature an introductory talk about quantitative forecasting by Adrian Regenfuß, followed by a hands-on exercise in forecasting. This talk was postponed in March because of COVID-19 and we are happy to host it now as it remains as timely as ever.

Just like last month, this meetup will take place online via video conference. We have slightly modified our usual schedule: We will leave out the introductory talk and dive directly into the main topic at 19:00.

People who are unfamiliar with effective altruism are encouraged to watch “What are the most important moral problems of our time?” (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WyprXhvGVYk) by one of the founders of Effective Altruism, William MacAskill, or the longer talk “Prospecting for Gold” (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=67oL0ANDh5Y) by Owen Cotton-Barratt as introductions to the topic.

The video conference will take place here: https://meet.ealokal.de/EffectiveAltruismMunich

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Wir freuen uns, euch zu unserem nächsten Meetup einzuladen, in dem es eine kurze Intro zum Thema "Quantitative Forecasting" von Adrian Regenfuß geben wird, gefolgt von einer praktischen Übung dazu. Wir haben dieser Vortrag im März wegen COVID-19 verschoben, jedoch ist das Thema weiterhin aktuell.

Wegen der derzeitigen Quarantäne wird dieses Meetup online über Videokonferenz stattfinden. Außerdem haben wir den Ablauf leicht modifiziert: Wir werden den Einführungsvortrag auslassen und direkt mit dem Hauptthema des Abends um 19:00 anfangen.

Sollte man mit Effektivem Altruismus nicht vertraut sein, kann man als Einführung den Vortrag “Effektiver Altruismus: Wie können wir Herz und Verstand verbinden?” (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=di3nHTAS7JY) von Jan Dirk Capelle anschauen.

Die Videokonferenz findet unter diesem Link statt: https://meet.ealokal.de/EffectiveAltruismMunich

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Talk summary:
"Many of the central topics in effective altruism depend on correct and accurate information about the future. Quantitative forecasting is the discipline of making probabilistic forecasts and grading their accuracy. At the meetup, there will first be a short introduction to central topics in quantitative forecasting (probabilistic beliefs, calibration, resolution, Brier scores, over- and underconfidence) and useful methods in forecasting (base rates, dialectical bootstrapping, extremising, adjusting for overconfidence).

Since Confucius said "I hear and I forget. I see and I remember. I do and I understand.", the talk will be followed by a group forecasting exercise. In this, small groups will make quantitative predictions about events in the near future (e.g. COVID-19, stock markets and more). The results of this exercise will be published one month later, and the winners announced."

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