Augur : A Decentralized Prediction Marketplace

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It's that time again, another meetup for all of you eager and interested crypto-curious. We are excited to announce we will be having Tom Kysar of Augur (https://augur.net/) joining us.

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Tom is an internet marketer, manager, and developer. Having first worked on Koinify, Tom helped raise ~5,000+ BTC for two crypto crowdsales. He later joined Tierion, an engine for generating cryptographic proofs for any file or data with the Bitcoin blockchain. Tom now works on building Augur, a decentralized prediction market built on Ethereum.

Augur (https://www.facebook.com/pg/augurproject/photos/?tab=album&album_id=393842270772895) is a prediction market platform that rewards you for correctly predicting future real-world events.

You make your predictions by trading virtual shares in the outcome of events happening in the real-world. If you think Trump will be impeached, the Yankees will win the World Series, or Leonardo DiCaprio will win another Oscar, then you'll buy shares in those outcomes. If you buy shares in the correct outcomes, you'll win real money profits.

The prices of the shares you trade in any event adds up to one dollar - so if you buy a share at even odds it will cost you 50 cents. If you end up being right, you'll get back one dollar for every share you bought. If you're wrong then you've lost the money used to buy your shares. As with any market, the price of shares fluctuates over time. As more people buy shares in an outcome, the price of that outcome will rise while the price of other outcomes will fall. This gives you further opportunities for profit - by buying low and selling high, before the final result of the market is known.

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Augur's prediction markets provide powerful predictive data - you can think of the current market price of any share in any market as an estimate of the probability of that outcome actually occurring in the real world. For example, a share priced at 64 cents has a 64% probability of happening.

The accuracy of prediction markets rests in the idea of the "The Wisdom of the Crowd". This states that the average prediction made by a group is superior to that made by any of the individuals in that group. Markets are the perfect way to aggregate this collective wisdom - which is made up of all the information, analysis and opinion held by members of the group. With these individuals buying and selling shares in the outcome of real-world events, based on their personal knowledge and opinion, the market prices reach an equilibrium that reflect the opinion of the entire group.

Prediction markets have proven to be more accurate at forecasting the future than individual experts, surveys or traditional opinion polling. They provide real-time predictive data and are traded using real money - which incentivizes market participants to reveal what they think will happen, rather than what they hope will happen. Traders are putting their money where their mouths are.

Tom will be discussing how REP is used and what's next for Augur.

https://youtu.be/sCms-snzHk4

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The Nights Agenda:

630pm Doors Will be Open

700pm Tom Kysar's Augur Presentation

730pm Q&A

800pm Break & Mingle

900pm Shutdown & Clean-up Shop

We sometimes head out for a drink or a bite afterwards. We'll make sure to announcement our plans after the Q&A.

Thanks and hope to see you all there,

Chris Groshong - CEO CoinStructive.com (https://coinstructive.com/)

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Transportation

Parking is limited and mostly metered: Remember yellow zones are 30 minute parking until 6pm. So get in a bit early and snag a yellow spot at 530pm.

The trolley is also an option.

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Tips & Donations

These events are not free for us to put on and any spare bits you can contribute would go along way. If you feel you receive value, please consider donating. This a multi-sig account for the San Diego Bitcoin Meetup Group.

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