Earthquake Tears Through Myanmar, leaving military and political uncertainty...

A live presentation at the Los Angeles Basin Geologic Society (LABGS).
Speaker: Thom Davis PhD Geologist, https://thomasldavisgeologist.com/
To attend the live presentation you must register for this event through the LABGS: Reservations are required by noon, Friday, June 13ᵗʰ, at labgs.org/meeting_info.html or directlymcontact LABGS Secretary Joseph Landeros at (626) 497-1710 or landerosjd@gmail.com.

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Large natural disasters can alter the military and political structure of nations already weakened by civil war and fragile economics. A magnitude 7.7 earthquake ruptured along the historically active Sagaing Fault, tearing through Myanmar's economic and political center on March 28, 2025 (Figure 1). According to the Myanmar Red Cross Society (MRCS) nearly 3 900 people have died, 5,742 have been injured, and 441 people remain missing (Other reports are at least a thousand deaths higher). Official figures from junta (Tatmadaw) controlled areas indicate the destruction of 48,834 residential buildings, thousands of schools, monasteries and nunneries, pagodas and stupas, departmental offices, and hundreds of health care facilities, plus destruction in other areas is reported to be significant. Key infrastructure, such as railroads, highways, bridges were damaged or destroyed. Earthquake epicenter, the causative fault, and much of the destructive aftermath was concentrated in the “Bamar Heartland,” the historical, cultural, administrative and agricultural center of the nation and home of the Burmese, the nation’s largest ethnic group. A center that is the demographic and resource support of the junta, its leadership, and troops.

Sagaing fault surface rupture caught on video: https://youtu.be/77ubC4bcgRM

The earthquake has put Myanmar at the intersection of several pathways: 1) A fractured state with continued war and the increased influence of its more capable neighbors in controlling certain parts of the country. Essentially, 2023-24 Syria with a few modifications. 2) A government, military or militarily-backed, at a more peaceful accommodation or frozen conflict with the opposition and tacitly approved by the Chinese. 3) A transition towards a unified democratic government, favored by many in the international community, unlikely without some significant battlefield gains by the opposition and China’s acceptance of the outcome. Even if this were to occur, such a government could evolve to too pro-USA for China’s comfort and lead to more instability. None of pathways do little to prevent an immense humanitarian crisis in the short to medium term.

There is an immediate need to establish a unified and protected aid relief effort to halt what could become an irreversible disaster that will be of no benefit to China and Myanmar’s other neighbors. Conditions require involving all parties in the aid effort: the Chinese, opposition, junta, interested nations and NGOs. Despite criticism of China’s aid approach and accusations of gaining from the conflict, realistically they are in the best position to work with others and control the junta’s excesses, common with past relief efforts. China has shown it has the resources, experience and contacts to quickly provide aid. However, its strategic goals have a dilemma: prevent a destabilizing humanitarian crisis, continuing to support the junta that is more interested in conflict over crisis, while ensuring stability of its fragile southern flank, already crowded with unstable nations and adversaries.