Forecasting Complex Hardware–Software Work: From "When" to "How Much"

Join us for this Lighthouse live with our Lighthouse user Chris

Forecasting Complex Hardware–Software Work: From "When" to "How Much"

Most teams are familiar with the question “when will it be done?”. There are now well-established techniques for tackling that problem, from flow metrics and Monte Carlo forecasting through to Kanban practices that improve predictability and delivery confidence.
What we have found is that the harder, less-solved problem is not “when”, but “how much”. How much work is actually there? How much scope is really in play? How much is still undiscovered?

In this session, Chris Graves will share how teams at Focusrite are experimenting with lean forecasting approaches to address that challenge. The focus is not on trying to eliminate uncertainty, but on shaping expectations, supporting better decisions, and helping teams focus on what matters while still allowing space for emergent discovery.

The context is complex, multi-team, multi-disciplinary work, often involving hardware and software, long time horizons, real constraints, and evolving scope. Traditional planning models struggle in these environments, not because forecasting is impossible, but because the system itself is dynamic.

This session explores how scoping, sizing, and structuring work differently can support more meaningful forecasting through Lighthouse, and how forecasting can become a decision-support tool rather than just a delivery prediction mechanism.

What you will learn

• Why “how much is there?” is often harder than “when will it be done?”
• How lean forecasting approaches help shape expectations, not just dates
• How scoping and sizing influence predictability in complex systems
• How to support focus and emergence at the same time
• What we are learning from real experiments, including limitations and open questions

About Chris
Chris Graves is an Agile Coach at Focusrite, working across multi-team systems to improve flow, predictability, and decision-making. His work focuses on practical experimentation, flow-based forecasting, and helping teams operate effectively in complex, constrained environments.

Who should attend
Engineering Managers, Product Managers, Agile Coaches, and practitioners working in complex delivery environments, especially where scope is uncertain, work spans multiple teams, and hardware and software constraints coexist.