Climate change tipping points - anticipating them and handling them

The possibility that the Earth will soon reach one or more climate change tipping points requires a different kind of response than if climate change is expected to proceed solely in a linear manner.

These potential tipping points include:

• The collapse of major ice sheets, transforming heat-reflecting areas of the planet into heat-absorbing ones
• Abrupt thawing of permafrost, with the rapid release of long-buried methane
• The transformation of the Amazon jungle from carbon sink to carbon source
• Coral reef die-off
• Alteration of fundamental currents in oceans and the atmosphere

In each case, cascading system effects may result.

It used to be estimated that these tipping points wouldn't be reached until average global temperatures were around 3-4 degrees higher than pre-industrial averages. But many scientists now believe the threshold for accelerating changes could be only 1.5 degrees.

This raises the possibility that abrupt alterations in the environment - seriously impacting weather, agriculture, security, migration, and more - could take place before sufficient green technofixes have been put in place to avoid these disasters.

How should futurists respond to this scenario? That's the topic of this London Futurists Swarm conversation.

One important line of thinking is that there could be social tipping points as well as environmental tipping points. See this research from the University of Exeter.

Other approaches include moving much more aggressively forward with initiative such as geo-engineering.

What are your views on this?

== Some recommended viewing before the event ==

See this recent nine minute news story from ITV News, "We uncovered the redacted climate report the government didn’t want you to see".

That report states the biodiversity loss and climate change pose a national security risk, and also threatens outbreaks of diseases such as anthrax. It covers one forecast in which the annual GDP in the UK in 2030 is 12% lower as a result, and points out that this reduction is twice as large as what happened in the 2008 global financial crisis.

== About this event ==

This Swarm conversation will be held inside a dedicated Zoom Meeting room. As an experiment, no advance registration is required, but you will arrive in a Waiting Room until a co-host admits you. By default, please keep your mics muted. You will be welcome to turn on your cameras, and to exchange comments (respectfully, please) in the Chat window.

Here's a link to the event: https://us02web.zoom.us/j/82167994008?pwd=V3sICUwFn5515Bp88JMtFOeqkPAfqX.1

You can take part, either from a Zoom app if you have installed it, or from a web browser.

Start time: 7:30pm UK time (=3:30pm North America east coast time)

== Speakers ==

The meeting will start with a short presentation by David Wood, before opening for full group conversation