About us
This meetup started in 2015 as a group for people in the Philadelphia area who were concerned with the current political turmoil in America, but who also felt that the prevailing liberal-vs-conservative political paradigm is unnecessarily limiting our ability to think rationally about politics & search for policy solutions. Since we shifted to mostly online meetups in 2020, we've opened the group up to people everywhere. If you like to talk politics but you've got some moderate or unconventional views that leave you feeling out of place at most of the activist groups, party meetings & political rallies in your area, this meetup is for you!
However, if your political views put you on the far left or far right of the political spectrum - i.e. you're a Marxist, anarchist, "woke" left-wing identitarian, fascist/ethno-nationalist, Islamist, Black Hebrew Israelite, Christian fundamentalist, etc., or sympathetic to these positions - please go elsewhere. Also, if you consider yourself a moderate Republican or moderate Democrat but your views are just generic talking points you've gleaned from listening to Fox News & Tucker Carlson or MSNBC & The View, this group is not for you. It may seem uncharitable to exclude people, but from past experience our discussions just don't work very well with these folks, since they tend to be close-minded and see all of our problems as the result of only one of our political parties - i.e. they're not even remotely "agnostic".
"Political Agnosticism" is a term I came up with back in 2015 to represent a non-dogmatic approach to politics that acknowledges uncertainty and the validity of multiple perspectives, and looks for practical solutions without worrying about adherence to an overarching political ideology. The purpose of this agnostic, skeptical & free-thinking approach is to avoid treating politics as a "culture war" based on group identities or a clash of "political religions" based more on devotion to a party than knowledge of the issues. Instead, when we cover a political issue, we look at what experts in various disciplines know (and don't know) about it, tease out the ethical implications, note the tradeoffs between different policy approaches, and then look at potential solutions that encompass everything we've learned.
The only political values that are prerequisites for members are a belief in civility & tolerance towards those we disagree with, a belief in traditional civil liberties like the freedom of speech, freedom of thought, freedom of association, and the right to privacy, as well as respect for institutional norms like separation of church & state, academic freedom, press freedom, government transparency, due process, judicial impartiality, and free & fair elections. These principles of an "open society" form the preconditions for the existence of a non-partisan political forum like ours.
Our general approach to politics is based on a concept we've borrowed from another organization, the Circle of Reason, called "pluralistic rationalism" – i.e. a personal commitment to reasoning, regardless of one's worldview. We start by assuming that reasonable people can differ in their cores values, whether it's framed as a preference for freedom vs security, tradition vs progress, individualism vs communitarianism, meritocracy vs egalitarianism, patriotism vs cosmopolitanism, etc. However, this approach is also premised on the belief that we should all commit to following the rules of logic & evidence-based reasoning. "Pluralistic Rationalism" is based on 3 tenets: (1) Factualism (as opposed to Denialism) for sourcing knowledge, (2) Skepticism (as opposed to Dogmatism) for vetting knowledge, and (3) Moderation (as opposed to Emotion) for expressing knowledge. To learn more about "pluralistic rationalism", see the Circle of Reason's website: http://www.circleofreason.org/
We are committed to creating a space for non-partisan political discussion based on intellectual honesty, mutual respect & civility. That means adopting the conversational principles of charity & good faith, avoiding name-calling, and trying to understand the best arguments that can be made for each side.
The goals for this meetup group are as follows:
(1) We try to understand why people - including ourselves - are predisposed by inherent psychological traits, cultural milieu & life experiences to have different moral intuitions & political orientations. We generally use a mix of the Big Five personality traits & Jonathan Haidt's Moral Foundations Theory, as well as Dan Kahan's work on "cultural cognition".
(2) We look at moral philosophy to try to better understand how moral axioms logically connect to one another and form ethical systems like deontological ethics, utilitarianism, virtue ethics, and contractarianism. We examine how these ethical systems form the basis for political philosophy, legal philosophy, and normative theories in the social sciences.
(3) We try to increase our level of rationality by learning how to spot logical fallacies, cognitive biases, flawed statistics, and various forms of groupthink. We often look to the bloggers of the "rationalist community" (e.g. Eliezer Yudkowsky, Scott Alexander, Julia Galef, Spencer Greenberg, Stefan Schubert, Zvi Moshowitz, Ozy Brennan, Sarah Constantin), the board members of the Center for Applied Rationality (CFAR), as well as the hosts of the Bayesian Conspiracy podcast (Steven Zuber, Eneasz Brodski, Katrina Stanton, Jace Dickey). We could also include "rationalist-adjacent" bloggers like Tim Urban (Wait But Why), Matthew Adelstein (Bentham's Bulldog) & Jack Despain Zhou (Tracing Woodgrains), data journalists like Nate Silver & Nate Cohn, tech gurus like Paul Graham & Vitalik Buterin, and scholars like Daniel Kahneman, Philip Tetlock, Keith Stanovich, Scott Aaronson, Nick Bostrum, John Nerst, Samuel Hammond, and Zeynep Tufekci who've promoted a similar style of detached, analytical thinking & strategic forecasting.
(4) We try to educate members on both the fundamentals and the latest research from the social sciences, and we discuss how this relates to current events & trending political topics. Aside from looking at academic research, a lot of our reading material comes from data/explainer journalism sites, econ & policy blogs, as well as the major public intellectuals & pundits from across the political spectrum.
(5) We try to imagine alternative types of political & economic systems that could provide better outcomes for the future based on both theory & empirical data. This often involves looking at various "maps of the policy landscape" like the Cato & Fraser Institutes' Human Freedom Index, SPI's Social Progress Index, the Economist's Democracy Index, the UN World Happiness Report, and others, even as we acknowledge the way their limitations, particularly the way they try to quantify qualitative factors that are often vague or inherently subjective.
(6) As part of our effort to break away from the narrow range of ideas represented by the two major political parties, we often look at constellations of ideas that could be described as syncretic, contrarian or heterodox. This often involves looking to intellectuals who've resisted the major populist & identitarian currents on the left and right, such as the scholars associated with Jonathan Haidt's Heterodox Academy, Peter Singer's Journal of Controversial Ideas, Keith E. Whittington's Academic Freedom Alliance, and Yascha Mounck's Persuasion.
(a) For critical insight on trends within conservatism, we often refer to conservative pundits who've criticized the GOP's ideological capture by Trump, e.g. David French, Sarah Isgur, Jonah Goldberg, Charles Sykes, Kevin Williamson, Anne Applebaum, Bret Stephens, George Will, Mona Charen, and other writers at sites like 'The Dispatch' and 'The Bulwark'. Also of interest are the Obama-era "reformicons" (e.g. David Frum, Yuval Levin, Ross Douthat, Reihan Salam, Ramesh & April Ponnuru, David Brooks, James Pethokoukis) who tried to steer the party more towards the interests of the middle & working classes in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis, only to end up politically homeless when Trump took over the GOP. (Note: I specifically didn't include some neocons like Bill Kristol, Max Boot, Stephen Hayes, Liz Cheney, etc., since they've never appeared to modify their hawkish foreign policy views in light of the disastrous Iraq War they championed.)
(b) For critical insight on trends within libertarianism, we often refer to "cosmopolitan libertarians" (a.k.a. Beltway libertarians) at the Cato Institute & its "liberaltarian" offshoot the Niskanen Center, the GMU economics department (e.g. Tyler Cowen, Alex Tabbarock, Robin Hanson, Bryan Caplan, Russ Roberts, Walter E. Williams, Arnold Kling), the members of the '200-Proof Liberals' blog - successor to the now-defunct 'Bleeding Heart Libertarians' blog (e.g. Jason Brennan, Chris Freiman, Kevin Vallier, Matt Zwolinski, Jacob Levy, Steve Horwitz, Sarah Skwire), as well as the 'Fifth Column' podcast (Kmele Foster, Michael Moynihan, Matt Welch) and writers at the magazine 'Reason' (e.g. Nick Gillespie, Robby Soave, Elizabeth Nolan Brown, Katherine Mangu-Ward, Peter Suderman, Ilya Somin, Eugene Volokh), and the anti-Trump libertarians at the new Substack 'The UnPopulist' (e.g. Shikha Dalmia, Cathy Young, Trevor Burrus, Aaron Ross Powell, Berny Belvedere, Radley Balko). The debates within Gene Epstein's Soho Forum and the Cato Institute's 'Cato Unbound' blog (although the latter is now defunct) are good venues for seeing the clash of ideas between libertarians & non-libertarians. (Note that I've excluded the paleolibertarians at the Ludwig von Mises Institute, the objectivists at the Ayn Rand Institute, and the left-libertarians at the Molinari Institute & C4SS since they seem to be more siloed in their echo chambers - although I'm fairly open to revising this opinion.)
(c) For critical insight on trends within progressivism, we often refer to liberal & centrist journalists who've criticized the biases of legacy-media outlets from within (e.g. Jonathan Chait, Adam Gopnik, George Packer, Graeme Wood, Damon Linker, James Bennet, Caitlin Flanagan, Megan McArdle, Pamela Paul, Josh Barro, Conor Friedersdorf, Jonathan Rauch, Shadi Hamid) and those who've moved to independent platforms like Substack (e.g. Andrew Sullivan, Matt Yglesias, Emily Yoffe, Freddie deBoer, Matt Taibbi, Jesse Singal, Katie Herzog, Zaid Jilani, Lee Fang). Many of these people signed the open letter against cancel culture in Harper's magazine back in July 2020. Left-leaning scholars who've broken with the progressive orthodoxy on some key issues (e.g. Camille Paglia, Kathleen Stock, Anne Applebaum, Mark Lilla, Scott Galloway, Richard Reeves) also fit into this loose intellectual cluster, as do the advocates of the "Abundance Agenda" (e.g. Ezra Klein, Derek Thompson, Steven Teles, Jerusalem Demsas, Marc Dunkelman, Binyamin & Yoni Applebaum, Misha Chellam).
(d) For critiques of trends within both conservatism & progressivism, we often look to the scholars at the Heterodox Academy (e.g. Jonathan Haidt, John Tomasi, Nadine Strossen, Musa al-Gharbi, Lee Jussim, Phil Tetlock, Scott Lilienfeld, Alice Dreger, Allison Stenger, Nicholas Christakis, Eric Smith, Sean Stevens, Yascha Mounck, Eric Kaufmann) and the moderate "enlightened centrist" faction of what used to be called the "Intellectual Dark Web", e.g. Sam Harris, Steven Pinker, Ayaan Hirsi Ali, Sarah Haider, Douglas Murray, Claire Lehmann, Helen Pluckrose, Peter Boghossian, Glenn Loury, John McWhorter, Coleman Hughes, and the various other writers & editors at media outlets like 'Quillette' and 'Areo Magazine' (although the latter is now defunct). Some other heterodox pundits like Bill Maher, Razib Khan, Richard Hanania, Meghan Daum, Debra Soh, Melissa Chen, Meghan Murphy, Konstantin Kisin, Michael Shellenberger, Freddie Sayers, Winston Marshall, Bari Weiss, Nellie Bowles - as well as other writers at 'Unherd' and 'The Free Press' - could be considered the successors to the IDW. (Note I've excluded some of the former IDW members like Dave Rubin, Jordan Peterson, Brett & Eric Weinstein, and Maajid Nawaz since they appeared to go off the rails amid the COVID pandemic & 2020 election due to "audience capture" and knee-jerk contrarianism. I've also excluded Joe Rogan due to his interest in pseudoscience & conspiracy theories, and Ben Shapiro is excluded because he seems more like a garden-variety conservative pundit.)
(e) For critical insight on trends within the emerging "bipartisan populist" sphere, we may refer to some members of the new think tank 'American Compass' (e.g. Oren Cass, Chris Griswold, Abigail Ball), writers at Julius Krein's journal 'American Affairs' (e.g. Michael Lind, David P. Goldman, Joel Kotkin), the strange bedfellows at Sohrab Amari's magazine 'Compact' (e.g. Edwin Aponte, Patrick Deneen, Matthew Schmitz, Geoff Shullenberger, Alex Gutentag, Adam Lehrer, Michael Tracey), so-called "reactionary feminists" who criticize both unrestrained capitalism & the sexual revolution (e.g. Mary Harrington, Louise Perry, Nina Power, Helen Andrews, Ashley Frawley), and several "post-left" writers formerly affiliated with the "Dirtbag Left" (e.g. Amber A'Lee Frost, Angela Nagle, Aimee Terese, Oliver Bateman, Malcolm Kyeyune). We could also refer to the 'Breaking Points' online news show headed by Krystal Ball & Saagar Enjeti (with co-hosts Emily Jashinsky & Ryan Grim; and their former 'Rising' co-hosts Kim Iversen & Batya Ungar-Sargon), Glenn Greenwald's post-Intercept output (e.g. the 'System Update' podcast), the writers at 'The Liberal Patriot' blog (Ruy Teixeria, John Halpin, Michael Bahareen), as well as some of the journalists at the socialist magazine 'Jacobin' who are partly sympathetic to populism (e.g. Jennifer Pan, Dustin Guastella, Paul Prescod). This loosely defined intellectual space is still evolving from conversations between anti-woke "class-first socialists" and "post-liberal conservatives" and is less ideologically coherent right now, although it has similarities to earlier Third Way ideologues like producerism and communitarianism. In some cases, figures in this movement have taken positions at odds with the core tenets of classical liberalism, but the left-right dialogue seems to be moderating some of their stances. (The comedians-turned-pundits Jimmy Dore & Russell Brand might fit into this space, as would Tucker Carlson, but I've excluded them as they've all promoted conspiracy theories so - like some of the former IDW members I listed above - they don't help us toward a rational view of politics. There's a similar problem with Anna Khachiyan & Dasha Nekrasova's 'Red Scare' podcast - they're too uninformed on policy & prone to knee-jerk contrarianism for shock value. The "MAGA Communism" guys have a similar problem.)
-- The common feature among all of the new media projects & public intellectuals listed above is that they are openly critical of intellectual blindspots & bad ideas coming from both the left & right, although most of them are not always *equally* aware or critical of problems on both sides of the political spectrum.
(7) In order to do our part combatting political polarization, we borrow ideas from a range of organizations that are currently working on enabling mutual understanding & civil dialogue, such as David Blankenhorn's Braver Angels project, Frank Burton's Circle of Reason, Alexandra Hudson's Civic Renaissance, Liz Joyner's Village Square, Joan Blades' Living Room Conversations, John Gable's AllSides team, David Nevins & Debilyn Molineaux's Bridge Alliance, Lisa Swallow & Kareem Abdelsadek's Crossing Party Lines, Tim Dixon & Gemma Mortensen's More In Common project, David Brooks's Social Fabric Project (a.k.a. Weave), Michael Smerconish's The Mingle Project, Charles Wheelan's Centrist Project (now called "Unite America"), Irshad Manji's Moral Courage Project, the Foundation Against Intolerance and Racism (FAIR), and others.
Upcoming events
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Braver Angels Event: "Minnesota Fraud - Public Funds, Public Trust?"
·OnlineOnlineAbout this Event:
Would you like to gain insight into how people who think differently than you view the recent fraud cases in Minnesota?This will be a live online discussion held alongside the in-person event hosted by the Dakota County Minnesota Alliance.
Participants will watch the conversation in real time, then join separate breakout rooms for their own small-group discussions.While the online and in-person groups will not interact, both will focus on respectful dialogue, gaining insight into differing perspectives, and exploring the connection between public funds and public trust.
Register on the Eventbrite page and the Zoom link will be emailed to you a couple of days prior to the event. Keep an eye out!
Questions? Email Kraig Finwall at kfinwall@braverangels.org
Registering for the Online Debate:
This is a FREE event; however, you will need to register for it. Go to the following Eventbrite link & fill out the registration form:
https://www.eventbrite.com/e/minnesota-fraud-public-funds-public-trust-online-streaming-registration-1982935820418?discount=BRAVER&aff=oddtdtcreatorRegistration for this debate will be closed 12 hours prior to the scheduled starting time. Check your email for the confirmation message with the Zoom link - if you don't see it, check your "Junk" folder.
- Note: Braver Angels events may be recorded, and may be shared with media or used in Braver Angels publications, including web pages. Participants who object to this may disable their video.
What is "Braver Angels"?
Formerly known as "Better Angels", Braver Angels is an organization founded in 2016 to depolarize American politics through grassroots organizing. They do this primarily by hosting events for cross-partisan dialogue & civil debate. To learn more, go to https://braverangels.org/1 attendee
Bi-Weekly Discussion - Understanding the US-Iran War
·OnlineOnlineThis is going to be an online meetup using Zoom. If you've never used Zoom before, don't worry — it's easy to use and free to join.
Click on the link above at the scheduled date/time to log in...
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UNDERSTANDING THE US-IRAN WAR: COULD & SHOULD IT HAVE BEEN AVOIDED & WHAT WILL PROBABLY HAPPEN NOW?
INTRODUCTION:
In our past discussion on March 1st entitled "Limits on Presidential War Powers", we discussed whether President Trump's decision to attack Iran on Feb. 28 was a violation of the U.S. Constitutional law or international law, as well as how it ties in with the components of "just war theory" (just cause, proper authority, right intention, last resort, reasonable chance of success, proportionality).
and the sometimes conflicting norms about respecting a state's sovereignty versus a responsibility to protect that state's citizens. In this discussion, we'll shift to adopting a more pragmatic approach about how various methods of dealing with the threats posed by Iran figure into U.S. national interest.I'd considered including a section on the history of relations between the US & Iran from the 1953 CIA-engineered coup that returned the Shah to power, through the 1979 Islamic revolution and Iran-Iraq War (1980-88), up to the Iraq War (2003-11) and the rise & fall of ISIS (2013-2017) that gave way to the ongoing low-intensity Iraqi insurgency, but instead I'd merely like to ask our members to review the Wikipedia summary to glean the basics.
In the first section, we'll revisit the debates over the Obama administration's negotiations with Iran that started with confrontation & coercion but gave way to a rapprochement which led to the nuclear deal, a.k.a. the "Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action" (JCPOA), which was concluded in July 2015. The deal was abandoned by the Trump administration in May 2018, but we'll look at the Biden administration's attempts to return to the deal which failed by April 2022, as well the debate over whether unfreezing some of Iran's assets enabled them to increase funding to proxy forces like Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis.
In the second section, we'll look back at how Trump showed a more confrontational yet still cautious approach towards Iran in his first term, i.e. pulling out of the nuclear deal in May 2018 & assassinating Iran's Quds Force leader Gen. Qasem Soleimani in Jan. 2020 but rejecting John Bolton's push for war with Iran in 2019. This stance was also reflected in the first year of Trump's second term, with his decision to launch a limited strike on Iran's nuclear facilities and then promptly declare a ceasefire to end the "Twelve Days War" (June 13-24, 2025).
In the third section, we'll look at possible war scenarios and implications for the global balance of power (particularly with regard to Russia & China) after the Trump administration's decision to partner with Israel and launch a much more sustained attack on Iran beginning on Feb. 28, 2026 - codenamed "Operation Epic Fury" by the U.S. and "Operation Roaring Lion" by Israel.
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RELEVANT MATERIAL FROM PAST MEETUPS:
In Oct. 2021, we had a meetup entitled "Can We Predict Geopolitical Conflict?" We looked at how to predict the onset of wars, WMD development & usage, military coups & popular revolts, as well as civil wars & genocide. We tried to apply some of Phil Tetlock's tips for geopolitical forecasting, like: (1) break seemingly intractable problems into tractable sub-problems, using Fermi estimates, (2) strike the right balance between "inside" (event-specific) and "outside" (reference class) views, (3) strike the right balance between under- and overreacting to new evidence, by using Bayesian-style updating, and (4) look for the clashing causal forces at work in each problem, and consider multiple theories & models.
We had a meetup in Sept. 2022 entitled "Hard Lessons from the War on Terror" where discussed what Americans should learn from the failed attempts at counter-insurgency & nation-building in Iraq & Afghanistan for the future of our Middle East policy, as well as the "New Cold War" with Russia & China.
In Oct. 2023, we had a meetup entitled "Should the U.S. Support Israel?" where we covered the history of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and debates over: (1) whether the creation of Israel was an act of Jewish self-determination or colonialism, (2) whether Israel practices war crimes & genocide or merely acts in self-defense, (3) the best solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, (4) whether the alliance with Israel helps or hurts U.S. national interest.
Back in July 2025, we had a meetup entitled "The Iran-Israel Conflict" that examined: (1) the history of the Iran-Israel proxy conflict, (2) the implications of the "Twelve Day War" for Iran's nuclear program, (3) the political situations in Israel and Iran after the Twelve Day War, and (4) the U.S. political rifts over U.S. intervention in the Twelve Day War.
We've also looked at a couple events by the Commonwealth Club of California that hosted the Iranian-American political scientist Vali Nasr to discuss his book Iran's Grand Strategy: A Political History shortly after the Twelve Day War and the political scientist Dalia Dassa Kaye, author of Enduring Hostility: The Making of America's Iran Policy (2025), to discuss what's behind the protests in Iran in Jan. 2026.
DIRECTIONS ON HOW TO PREPARE FOR OUR DISCUSSION:
The videos & articles you see linked below are intended to give you a basic overview of some of the major debates over the ongoing US/Israel-Iran war. As usual, I certainly don't expect you to read all the articles prior to attending our discussion. The easiest way to prepare for our discussion is to just watch the numbered videos linked under each section - the videos come to about 78 minutes total. The articles marked with asterisks are just there to supply additional details. You can browse and look at whichever ones you want, but don't worry - we'll cover the stuff you missed in our discussion.
In terms of the discussion format, my general idea is that we'll address the topics in the order presented here. I've listed some questions under each section to stimulate discussion. We'll do our best to address most of them, as well as whatever other questions our members raise. I figure we'll spend about 40 minutes on each section.
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I. UNDERSTANDING THE SHORT-LIVED IRAN NUCLEAR DEAL (2015-2018) & WHETHER DETENTE WOULD'VE WORKED:
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1a) Vox, "How the Iran nuclear deal works, explained in 3 minutes" (video - 3:05 min)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oqvghou5m3U1b) WSJ, "Obama's Dangerous Bargain with Iran" (video - 4:04 min)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d-JyQEK-fVY1c) The National Desk, "$6 billion to Iran? Biden-era deal faces intense backlash" (video - 4:35 min)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H83s8PtBTo4- TRIP Snap Polls V & VII: "IR Scholars React to Proposed Nuclear Agreement with Iran" (Apr. & Sept. 2015)
https://trip.wm.edu/research/snap-polls/snap-poll-5/Snap_Poll_5_topline.pdf
https://trip.wm.edu/research/snap-polls/snap-poll-7/Snap_poll_7.pdf - Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation, "Iran Nuclear Deal: Correcting Misconceptions"
https://armscontrolcenter.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/Fact-check-iran-deal-1.pdf - Hudson Institute, "Seven Myths about the Iran Nuclear Deal"
https://www.hudson.org/national-security-defense/seven-myths-about-the-iran-nuclear-deal - Jeff Seldin, "Indications Iran Doubling Down on Use of Proxy Forces [in 2017]"
https://www.voanews.com/a/indications-iran-doubling-down-on-use-of-proxy-forces/3878748.html - Saran Hale Spencer, "Posts Misrepresent [Biden Administration's] Unfreezing of $16 Billion in Iranian Funds"
https://www.factcheck.org/2024/05/posts-misrepresent-unfreezing-of-16-billion-in-iranian-funds/ - Sina Toosi, "Biden had a chance to undo Trump's mistakes. He dropped the ball."
https://responsiblestatecraft.org/iran-nuclear-deal-2668189539/
II. UNDERSTANDING TRUMP'S CONFRONTATIONAL BUT RESTRAINED APPROACH TO IRAN IN HIS FIRST TERM & TWELVE-DAY WAR:
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2a) Vox, "Trump quits Iran nuclear deal, undoing years of diplomacy" (video - 5:00 min)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U-mwFoev3OQ2b) ABC News: If You're Listening, "Trump thinks he can switch off the Iran War" (video - 24:07 min)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=irsF1W3StWk- TRIP Snap Poll 23 Report: "The Iran-Israel Conflict and Potential U.S. Involvement" (June 18-22, 2025)
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III. MOST LIKELY WAR SCENARIOS IN IRAN & IMPLICATIONS FOR THE GLOBAL BALANCE OF POWER:
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3a) CNN w/ Fareed Zakaria, "US & Israel have separate agendas for Iran war" (video - 9:39 min)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mn-iB-hJz3s3b) Hoover Institution w/ John Cochrane, Niall Ferguson, H.R. McMaster & "Gulf War III or Cold War II: Iran Truth and Consequences" (video - 32:02 min)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CzRMARM3nYg- TRIP Snap Poll 24: "The Iran War" (Feb. 2026)
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Bi-Weekly Discussion - How Is Party Switching Changing Our Politics?
·OnlineOnlineThis is going to be an online meetup using Zoom. If you've never used Zoom before, don't worry — it's easy to use and free to join.
Click on the link above at the scheduled date/time to log in...
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HOW IS PARTY SWITCHING CHANGING OUR POLITICS?
INTRODUCTION:
In this meetup, we'll discuss how party switching is affecting our political system and the broader political atmosphere in the United States over the last decade or so.
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RELEVANT MATERIALS FROM PAST MEETUPS:
In Nov. 2022, we had a meetup entitled "Understanding the Great Realignment" and the 4th section dealt with the possibility that Trumpism" and the "Great Awokening" are realigning the two major parties, leading to a Republican Party with a mix of conservatives & populists and Democrats with a mix of liberals & libertarians, as Jennifer Victor predicted in a Vox article in 2016 entitled "The clockwork rise of Donald Trump and reorganization of American parties". We also discuss Michael Lind's 2014 article on "The Coming Realignment" predicting that the GOP will become more driven by a working-class/middle class coalition in "Posturbia" (suburbs, exurbs & rural areas), whereas the Democratic Party will be based around an multiracial coalition composed of a college-educated elite and lower-wage service workers in "Densitaria" (high-density downtowns of major cities).
Back in Jun. 2024, we had a meetup entitled "Which Party's Coalition Will Crack First?" where we explored how the current party coalitions might fracture, focusing on Democrats' struggles with young people and black & Hispanic voters (particularly men), and Republicans' struggles with major corporations and suburban middle-class whites (particularly women). The "Dem Crackup" scenario I outlined in the outline's Introduction section arguably describes the 2024 election: "A backlash against 'wokeness' will help the GOP win back the business conservatives while also attracting more working class voters, leading to major losses for the Democrats & a discrediting of the Democratic establishment. Ironically, this might give the Bernie-style populists a second shot at taking over the Democratic party, as they aim to win back the working class with economic reforms instead of identity politics."
Back in February, we had a meetup entitled "Elites & Counter-Elites". In the 3rd section, we discussed the growing conflict between journalists at legacy print & TV media outlets with declining viewership and "new media elites" like podcasters, social media influencers, and independent journalists at online outlets like Spotify & Substack. In particular, we talked about prominent liberal journalists defecting to Substack in 2020 (e.g. Glenn Greenwald, Matt Taibbi, Bari Weiss, Matt Yglesias, Jesse Singal), as well as the reasons for the shifting political loyalties of controversial comedians like Joe Rogan, Bill Maher, Dave Chappelle, Jerry Seinfeld, Russell Brand, Tim Dillon, Bill Burr, and Jimmy Dore. In the 4th section, we looked at the role of Silicon Valley as an alternative power center vis-a-vis New York & DC that attracts a different sort of elite class, as well as the recent rightward shift of some tech moguls like Elon Musk, Mark Zuckerberg, Jeff Bezos, Marc Andreessen, Davis Sacks, and Brian Armstrong.
Back in May, we had a meetup entitled "Can 'Abundance Liberalism' Save the Dems?" We discussed the "blue stats exodus" due to high costs of living that have led 13 million people to migrate to red states, which could hurt the Democrats after the 2030 census if they lose seats in the house and presidential electors. We then discussed Ezra Klein & Derek Thompson's new book Abundance (2025) that promotes increasing the supply of essential goods & services (e.g. housing, healthy food, clean energy & transportation, broadband internet access, healthcare, education, childcare) to make them more abundant & affordable in order to achieve progressive outcomes like reducing poverty and creating more economic opportunities. We also looked at critiques of abundance liberalism from both the libertarian right and the progressive left, and whether - whatever its merits - abundance liberalism has "legs", i.e. can it gain enough electoral support in blue states to achieve some of its proposed reforms, or will it inevitably be crushed by the left-wing populists leading the anti-Trump resistance.
Back in August, we had a meetup entitled "The Return of the 'Socialist Moment' for Dems?" We discussed the Democrats' current low-favorability rating and reckoning after the 2024 election loss, and whether this indicates a desire for the party to become more moderate or more radical. We discussed the popularity of Bernie Sanders & AOC's "Fight Oligarchy" tour and Zohran Mamdani's surprise win in the NYC mayor's primary race, both of which may point to the rising fortune's of the Democrats' progressive/socialist wing. (Note: I wish I'd added a 4th section on the Democrats' struggles in their outreach to young men and their attempt to find their left-wing analogue for Joe Rogan in podcasters like Hasan Piker.)
DIRECTIONS ON HOW TO PREPARE FOR OUR DISCUSSION:
The videos & articles you see linked below are intended to give you a basic overview of some of the theories about why both voters & politicians are switching their party affiliation and how this is affecting our politics. As usual, I certainly don't expect you to read all the articles prior to attending our discussion. The easiest way to prepare for our discussion is to just watch the numbered videos linked under each section - the videos come to about 58 minutes total. The articles marked with asterisks are just there to supply additional details. You can browse and look at whichever ones you want, but don't worry - we'll cover the stuff you missed in our discussion.
In terms of the discussion format, my general idea is that we'll address the topics in the order presented here. I've listed some questions under each section to stimulate discussion. We'll do our best to address most of them, as well as whatever other questions our members raise. I figure we'll spend about 30 minutes on each section.
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I. WHICH VOTERS HAVE LEFT THE DEMOCRATS OVER THE LAST DECADE & WHY? WHERE ARE THEY GOING?
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1a) CBN News, "The 'Great Realignment:' Democrats Leave Party in Droves, and What It Could Mean for GOP in November [2022]" (video - 4:40 min)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-m1esKcOTQ81b) Young Turks, "Millions FLEE Democratic Party [in 2024] — Here’s Why" (video - 9:38 min)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cPYDGLdWXZw- Robert Griffin, "Party Hoppers: Understanding Voters Who Switched Partisan Affiliation [in 2011-2016]"
https://www.voterstudygroup.org/publication/party-hoppers - Jeff Stein, "The Bernie voters who defected to Trump, explained by a political scientist" (Vox)
https://archive.ph/kgKOi - Steve Peoples, "More than 1 million voters switch to GOP [in 2022], raising alarm for Democrats"
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/more-than-1-million-voters-switch-to-gop-raising-alarm-for-democrats - Grace Turke-Martinez, "Party Switcher Data Doesn't Lie, But It's Easy To Misinterpret: Alarm & Optimism in Key States [in 2022]"
https://themessinagroup.com/alarm-optimism-in-key-states-for-party-switchers/ - Pew Research, "Changing Partisan Coalitions in a Politically Divided Nation: Party identification among registered voters, 1994-2023"
https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2024/04/09/changing-partisan-coalitions-in-a-politically-divided-nation/ - Matt Yglesias, "The crank realignment is bad for everyone: A stupid party [on the right] + a bunch of biased institutions [on the left] degrades epistemics across the board"
https://www.slowboring.com/p/the-crank-realignment-is-bad-for - Ross Douthat, "The ‘Crank Realignment’ and the Paranoid Center"
https://archive.ph/GqJTm - John MacGhlionn, "Why men are leaving the left — and not coming back"
https://thehill.com/opinion/campaign/5561387-democratic-party-losing-men/ - Matthew Yglesias, "When people don’t vote, Democrats win: Everyone needs to learn the new politics of turnout"
https://www.slowboring.com/p/when-people-dont-vote-democrats-win - Adam Bonita, et al., "Did Non-Voters Really Flip Republican in 2024? The Evidence Says No."
https://data4democracy.substack.com/p/did-non-voters-really-flip-republican - Amie Parnes, "Democrats alarmed over new data showing voters fleeing to GOP [in 2025]"
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/5462604-voter-registration-shift-democrats/
II. WHICH POLITICIANS HAVE LEFT THE DEMOCRATS OVER THE LAST DECADE & WHY? WHERE ARE THEY GOING?
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2a) The Hill w/ Ross Barkan, "How Did Democrats LOSE People Like RFK Jr., Tulsi Gabbard?" (video - 12:20 min)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AkvbGEOhEDY2b) Kara Swisher w/ Joe Manchin, "Joe Manchin on why Democrats lost the working class, Trump, and polarization" (video - 53:50 min, start at 48:10)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PlzhnOPFimk&t=48m10s- Eric Garcia, "Why Manchin remains in the Democratic Party [in 2022] but Sinema doesn’t: Sinema joined the Democratic Party to advance her career. Manchin’s roots in the Democratic Party run far deeper"
https://www.the-independent.com/voices/joe-manchin-kyrsten-sinema-senate-republicans-defection-b2243473.html - Liz Frampton, "Trading places: More lawmakers are swapping political parties: Five state lawmakers traded in their Democratic credentials for the GOP this session [in 2023]."
https://www.politico.com/news/2023/08/09/party-flippers-democrats-becoming-republicans-00110334 - Nicole Narea, "Why these Democrats are defecting to the GOP [in 2023]: Four Democratic lawmakers in West Virginia, Louisiana, and North Carolina switched parties recently. Should Democrats worry?"
https://www.vox.com/politics/2023/4/11/23679162/louisiana-north-carolina-cotham-thompson-lacombe - Ross Barkan, "How Democrats Lost the Dissident Vote: The Bad News for Democrats on RFK Jr. and Tulsi Gabbard" (Politico)
https://archive.ph/pYleP - Mandy Taheri, "Full List of Democratic Leaders Who’ve Left the Party Since 2024 Election"
https://www.newsweek.com/full-list-democratic-leaders-left-party-since-2024-election-2081420 - Eli Yokley, "Fetterman’s Approach to Politics Is Working in Pennsylvania: The Democratic senator has broadened his coalition while angering progressives"
https://pro.morningconsult.com/analysis/john-fetterman-republican-approval-rating
III. WHICH VOTERS HAVE LEFT THE REPUBLICANS OVER THE LAST DECADE & WHY? WHERE ARE THEY GOING?
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3a) Young Turks, "Voters Leaving The Republican Party En Masse [after Jan. 6]" (video - 7:10 min)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=drBxCk0wtmk3b) MSNBC w/ Rich Logis, "'There is going to be a cannibalization of itself': Former Trump supporter on MAGA breakdown [amid Epstein files debacle]" (video - 9:57 min)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=86tcoDjJWbk- Charlotte Alter, "Nearly a Quarter of GOP Millennials Have Defected from the Party of Trump [in 2017], Study Says"
https://time.com/4786694/donald-trump-republican-party-switch-poll/ - David de la Fuente, "Romney-Clinton Voters Can’t Deliver a Democratic Majority [in 2018]"
https://www.thirdway.org/memo/romney-clinton-voters-cant-deliver-a-democratic-majority - Geoffrey Kelley, et al., "Why The Suburbs Have Shifted Blue [by 2020]"
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-the-suburbs-have-shifted-blue/ - Philip Bump & Lenny Bronner, "Some Republicans are switching parties [after Capitol riot on Jan. 6th, 2021] — but not many: We should perhaps not assume the collapse of the institutional GOP just yet"
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2021/01/27/some-republicans-are-switching-parties-but-not-many/ - CBS News, "Troubling sign for Democrats: "Party switchers trending strongly Republican, especially in suburbs [in 2022]"
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/party-switchers-strongly-republican-especially-suburbs-troubling-democrats/ - Nate Silver, "Is Epstein the new Russiagate? Political types are obsessed with the story. But that doesn't mean it's penetrated into the broader public."
https://www.natesilver.net/p/is-epstein-the-new-russiagate - Aaron Blake, "How polls show Republicans shifted away from caring so much about Jeffrey Epstein"
https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/polls-show-republicans-shifted-away-120046742.html - Laura Esposito, "MAHA Moms Turn Against Trump After Stunning Betrayal [on Glyphosate]"
https://www.thedailybeast.com/maha-moms-turn-against-donald-trump-after-stunning-betrayal/ - Freddy Gray, "Operation Epic Fury is already tearing the MAGA movement apart"
https://archive.ph/xji5J
III. WHICH POLITICIANS HAVE LEFT THE REPUBLICANS OVER THE LAST DECADE & WHY? WHERE ARE THEY GOING?
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4a) CNN w/ John Avlon, "This is why many Republicans are leaving the House [in 2019]" (video - 3:14 min)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nmlsPw_ExJY4b) Chris Cilia, "'A Tinder Box': Inside the Total Collapse of House Republican Morale [in 2025]" (video - 7:10 min.)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NRmbJXeOyXg- Peter Weber, "4 in 10 House Republicans in office when Trump was inaugurated have now quit or lost their seats [by Sept. 2019]"
https://theweek.com/speedreads/866990/4-10-house-republicans-office-when-trump-inaugurated-have-now-quit-lost-seats - Meredith McGraw & Daniel Lippman, "They resigned in protest over Jan. 6 — then never went after Trump again: The administration officials who defected from the administration over the riots have almost all receded from public view even as Trump’s stayed put." (Politico)
https://archive.ph/mOaVn - David Siders, "Anti-Trumpers are done with the GOP. Where do they go now? Scores of Republicans are bolting the party in the wake of the Jan. 6 Capitol riot. But they’re discovering there’s really no place to go." (Politico)
https://archive.ph/FUvxz - Evan Gottesman, "Understanding Partisan Defectors: Republicans Defect, But Don't Necessarily Become Democrats"
https://rdi.org/articles/understanding-partisan-defectors/ - Time Staff, "The Republicans Crossing Party Lines and Voting for Harris Over Trump [in 2024]"
https://time.com/7160907/republicans-crossing-party-lines-voting-kamala-harris-over-donald-trump/ - Nathaniel Rakich & Katie Marriner, "The GOP is Trump's party now [by Feb. 2025]: Most Republicans in Congress were elected in the Trump era."
https://abcnews.go.com/538/gop-trumps-party-now/story?id=118574467 - Kate Santaliz & Hans Nichols, "Mike Johnson's red alert on members quitting Congress"
https://www.axios.com/2025/12/02/congress-retirements-mike-johnson-republicans
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Bi-Weekly Discussion - Understanding "Realist" IR Theory
·OnlineOnlineThis is going to be an online meetup using Zoom. If you've never used Zoom before, don't worry — it's easy to use and free to join.
Click on the link above at the scheduled date/time to log in...
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UNDERSTANDING REALIST I.R. THEORY THROUGH FILM & TV
INTRODUCTION:
What you're seeing below is a blank discussion outline. If there's no title listed above for this meetup, it probably means I haven't decided on the topic. If there's a title but not much else, it means I've picked a topic but I'm still looking around for articles & videos clips to stimulate discussion.
If you see the topic and think it's interesting, please RSVP early since this gives me a general idea of about how many people will be showing up.
I typically try to finish up the discussion outline the weekend before a meetup, but sometimes I can't finish it until a couple days before the discussion. Luckily, I only ask that people watch a few video clips prior to attending the meetup and they generally only come to 30-45 minutes total, so even if it takes me until the day prior to finish up the discussion outline you'll still have time to prepare.
- So what's up will all the X's below? Meetup's new format gives me a very short character limit that makes long discussion outline impossible. However, I found a way around it - by copying old meetups before the new character limit was introduced. But there's a catch, if all of the blank space isn't filled when I copy the meetup, the new shorter character limit will be applied, so I'm forced to fill up all the available space with X's. I know that sounds kinda ridiculous, but it's the only way I can still write up long, detailed discussion outlines.
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RELEVANT MATERIAL FROM PAST MEETUPS:
In Oct. 2021, we had a meetup entitled "Can We Predict Geopolitical Conflict?" We looked at how to predict the onset of wars, WMD development & usage, military coups & popular revolts, as well as civil wars & genocide. We tried to apply some of Phil Tetlock's tips for geopolitical forecasting, like: (1) break seemingly intractable problems into tractable sub-problems, using Fermi estimates, (2) strike the right balance between "inside" (event-specific) and "outside" (reference class) views, (3) strike the right balance between under- and overreacting to new evidence, by using Bayesian-style updating, and (4) look for the clashing causal forces at work in each problem, and consider multiple theories & models.
Back in March 2025, we had a meetup entitled "What Is/Was the 'Liberal International Order'?" In the 3rd section, we discussed the role of US military alliances and "Pax Americana" supporting the post-WW2 order and concerns that Trump pulling back from NATO could undermine that. In the 4th section, we discussed the roles of multilateral agreements and international law in supporting a "rules-based order" which Trump is increasingly flouting with aggressive military actions in his 2nd term.
Back in April 2025, we had a meetup entitled "Is There a 'Trump Doctrine'?" and in the 3rd section, we looked at the theory that Trump wants to mostly withdraw the U.S. military from engagements in Eurasia and focus on reinforcing America's sphere of influence in the Americas, essentially reviving the "Monroe Doctrine".
DIRECTIONS ON HOW TO PREPARE FOR OUR DISCUSSION:
The videos & articles you see linked below are intended to give you a basic overview of some of the major debates over xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx. As usual, I certainly don't expect you to read all the articles prior to attending our discussion. The easiest way to prepare for our discussion is to just watch the numbered videos linked under each section - the videos come to about about XX minutes total. The articles marked with asterisks are just there to supply additional details. You can browse and look at whichever ones you want, but don't worry - we'll cover the stuff you missed in our discussion.
In terms of the discussion format, my general idea is that we'll address the topics in the order presented here. I've listed some questions under each section to stimulate discussion. We'll do our best to address most of them, as well as whatever other questions our members raise. I figure we'll spend about 30 minutes on each section.
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