Bi-Weekly Discussion - Has Defunding Police Led to Rising Crime?
Details
This is going to be an online meetup using Zoom. If you've never used Zoom before, don't worry — it's easy to use and free to join.
Click on the link below at the schedule time...
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HAVE DEFUNDING POLICE & "SOFT ON CRIME" POLICIES LED TO RISING CRIME RATES?
INTRODUCTION:
In this meetup, we'll discuss why certain crimes - particularly homicides - have been trending up in many major cities since 2020 and whether this had to do with "defunding" police departments and other so-called "soft on crime" policies like ending cash bail, using social workers & violence interrupters in place of police in some cases, allowing homeless camps in public areas, reduced charges for certain crimes like minor drug possession & shoplifting, and sentencing & parole reforms that led to either no jail time or relatively short stays for many convicts.
As our members in the Philadelphia metro area are probably aware, this is a hot topic right now because the city elected the reform-minded DA Larry Krasner in 2017, but his policies have come under fire since homicides increased to 499 in 2020, a historic high of 561 in 2021, then a slight drop to 516 in 2022. However, I decided to focus on these issues on a national level so we have a wider basis of comparison.
RELEVANT MATERIAL FROM PAST MEETUPS:
In our meetup on Feb. 6 entitled "Understanding Political Violence", we briefly discussed whether the anti-police protests & riots in the summer of 2020 may have sparked a subsequent crime wave by delegitimizing the police, which in turn interfere's with the "rule of law" and the state's "monopoly on the legitimate use of violence". To assess this, we looked at some preliminary research from UMass Amherst on the "Ferguson effect" from protests prior to from 2014 to 2019 that found that places with BLM protests from 2014 to 2019 saw a 15-20% reduction in police homicides but a 10% increase in murders (see the above graph).
Back on Jan. 24, Michael Shellenberger spoke to the Commonwealth Club about his new book "Sanfransicko" where he argues that urban problems such as homelessness and drug dealing aren't primarily from a lack of housing or funding for social programs, but rather a hands-off approach to law enforcement that coddles addicts & criminals.
Back in Dec. 2021, Braver Angels hosted a debate on whether sex work should be decriminalized. Some of the pro-decriminalization arguments focused on how it would make sex workers safer and free up vice police to deal with violent crimes.
Back in Nov. 2021, the Skeptics had a meetup entitled "Is Mass Migration a Crisis or a Moral Panic?" and in the 2nd section they looked at whether illegal immigration causes higher crimes in the U.S. In general, it looks like illegal immigrants commit less crime than native born Americans, although in areas where they fear deportation they're often reluctant to report crimes in their communities, which can make it easier for gangs & human trafficking rings to operate in these areas.
Back in Apr. 2021, we had a meetup entitled "Understanding the Gun Control Debate" that explored why state-level gun ownership rates don't correlate with state-level homicide rates, and what research can tell us about the efficacy of various gun control measures at reducing violent crime.
Back in June 2020, we had a meetup entitled "Should We Legalize Drugs?" and the 4th section looked at why many economists tend to favor some form of decriminalization, since it could siphon money away black markets and reduce crime committed by drug gangs.
In May 2021, the Skeptics in the Pub Online hosted the sociologist Alex Vitale to talk about his new book "The End of Policing" that argued policing should be abolished. In the comments, I linked Matthew Yglesias's critique of Vitale's book at Vox, where he argued that most studies show that we need more police - albeit with better training & oversight, and more firings of abusive officers - to curb violent crime.
Way back in Dec. 2018, we had a meetup entitled "Crime & Theories of Punishment" where we looked at the research on so-called "tough on crime" policies like the death penalty, three strikes law, mandatory minimum sentences, and mass incarceration to see if they actually reduce crime. Then we looked at so-called "soft on crime" policies like bail reform, prison education & rehabilitation programs, and work release to see if it increases or reduces crime rates.
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DIRECTIONS ON HOW TO PREPARE FOR OUR DISCUSSION:
The videos & articles you see linked below are intended to give you a basic overview of some of the major debates over policing and criminal justice reform amidst rising homicide rates. As usual, I certainly don't expect you to read all the articles prior to attending our discussion. The easiest way to prepare for our discussion is to just watch the numbered videos linked under each section - the videos come to about about 43 minutes total. The articles marked with asterisks are just there to supply additional details. You can browse and look at whichever ones you want, but don't worry - we'll cover the stuff you missed in our discussion.
In terms of the discussion format, my general idea is that we'll address the topics in the order presented here. I figure we'll spend about 30 minutes on each section.
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I. WHICH CRIME RATES ARE RISING WHERE - AND WHY?
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1a) WBNS w/ Paul Cassell, "Could events in Minneapolis last year explain the increase in homicides?" (video - 5:27 min.)
1b) PBS w/ Thomas Abt, "What's behind rising violent crimes in the U.S., and how they can be reduced?" (video - 8:27 min.)
* USA Facts, "Homicides increased by 25% but overall crime rate fell in 2020"
* Andy Fies, "Why carjackings have skyrocketed in parts of the country during the pandemic" (ABC News)
* Lois Beckett, "Pandemic gun violence surge was not linked to rise in gun sales, study finds: Research suggests looking at role of job loss, economic change, closure of schools and community organizations and civil unrest" (Guardian)
* Alexander Phipps, "What Caused Last Year’s Spike in Violent Crime?" (Heritage)
* Rachel M. Cohen, "Fentanyl, Guns, and Murder: Get Ready for a Bloody Summer: 2020 was an historically bloody year, and as lockdowns ease and life starts to seem halfway normal again, experts are bracing for the worst." (Daily Beast)
* Elliot Davis Jr., "Experts: It’s a Mayor’s Policies, Not Politics, That Influence Crime Rates: Despite President Trump’s assertions, a mayor’s political affiliation has nothing to do with a city’s crime rate. But experts say crime trends are not beyond mayoral control." (US News)
* Zaid Jilani, "Democrats Downplaying Violent Crime Are Playing Politics With Poor People's Lives" (Newsweek)
* Robert VerBruggen, "An Update on America’s Homicide Surge: New CDC data show that the rise in murders isn’t a 'red state' or 'blue state' problem." (City Journal)
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II. ARE CITIES BUNGLING POLICING REFORM?
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2a) FreeThink, "Is Police Reform Even Possible?" (video - 7:34 min.)
2b) Newsy w/ Wesley Skogan, "Does adding police officers reduce crime?" (video - 2:22 min.)
* Sarah Holder, Fola Akinnibi & Christopher Cannon, "‘We Have Not Defunded Anything’: Big Cities Boost Police Budgets" (Bloomberg)
* Kenny Lo & Sarah Figgat, "Violent Crime Rates Declined in 10 Jurisdictions Following Comprehensive Police Reform" (American Progress)
* Conor Friedersdorf, "Justice Reformers Need to Update Their Priors" (Atlantic)
* Rafael A. Mangual, "Proceed With Caution: We mustn’t let misperceptions and bad data derail police reform" (City Journal)
* Jake Blumgart, "Camden, New Jersey, isn’t really a model for police reform - Beneath the hype, the city's experience is much more complicated." (City Monitor)
* German Lopez, "The evidence for violence interrupters doesn’t support the hype: In the quest for alternatives to police, interrupters simply aren’t a proven idea." (Vox)
* Melissa Murphy & Jessica Price, "Deeper Self-Reflection Is Needed Around the Role of Social Work in Police Reform" (Imprint News)
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III. ARE CITIES BUNGLING BAIL & PROSECUTION REFORM?
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3a) CNBC, "Why some experts blame bail reforms for crime spikes across the country" (video - 4:50 min.)
3b) ABC News w/ Cristine Soto DeBerry & George Brauchler, "Prosecutors with range of political ideals discuss reforming criminal justice system" (video - 4:50 min.)
* Holmes Lybrand and Tara Subramaniam, "Fact-checking claims bail reform is driving increase in violent crime" (CNN)
* Charles Fain Lehman, "We Still Don’t Know How Many Crimes Bail Reform Caused: Misleading and incomplete data stymie an important public-safety debate." (City Journal)
* Darcy Covert, "The False Hope of the Progressive-Prosecutor Movement: Well-intentioned reformers can’t fix the criminal legal system. They have to start relinquishing power." (Atlantic)
* Thomas Hogan, "Defund Progressive Prosecutors? City leaders have little leverage against renegade prosecutors—but they do retain the power of the purse." (City Journal)
* Jennifer Doleac, "Don’t Blame Progressive Prosecutors for Rising Crime: More lenient policies don’t appear to be contributing to a crime wave in urban areas across the U.S." (Bloomberg)
* Nikki Trautman Baszynski, "Stop Fearmongering About Progressive Prosecutors and Decarceral Policies" (The Appeal)
* Amanda Mull, "The Great Shoplifting Freak-Out: Why is it so hard to figure out if America’s enormous surge in theft is real?" (Atlantic)
* Steven Malanga, "Why shoplifting is soaring across the US — and will only get worse" (NY Post)
* Sal Rodriguez, "Is Proposition 47 responsible for crime increases in California?" (OC Register)
* Martin Kaste, "Homeless camps are often blamed for crime but experts say it's not so simple" (NPR)
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IV. ARE COURTS BUNGLING SENTENCING & PAROLE REFORM?
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4a) Federalist Society, "Sentencing Reform in America: An Overview and Conversation" (video - 4:18 min.)
4b) NowThis News, "How Probation and Parole Create Intergenerational Poverty" (video - 3:56 min.)
* Wendy Sawyer, "New Data: The Changes in Prisons, Jails, Probation, and Parole in the First Year of the Pandemic" (Prison Policy)
* Rebecca C. Lewis, "New data proves bail reform both worked and failed, depending on who you ask. Supporters and opponents of bail reform in dueling press conferences point to a year worth of data released by the state to support their arguments" (NY Media)
* Nancy Bilyeau, "Early Jail Releases During Pandemic Didn’t Lead to Crime Spike: Study" (Crime Report)
* Leonard Sipes, "Did COVID Jail Releases Increase Violence?" (Crime in America)
* Weihua Li, Beth Schwartzapfel and Michael R. Sisak, "Jail Populations Creep Back Up After COVID-19: Judges, prosecutors and sheriffs in many states sent people home instead of to jail last year, but new data suggests the change is not lasting." (Marshall Project)
* Jane Roh, "DA Krasner Reforms Are Safely Shrinking Probation & Parole System, Yielding as Much as $40M to Reinvest in Prevention of Crime" (Phila. Justice)
* Anthony Barr & Kristen Broady, "Dramatically increasing incarceration is the wrong response to the recent uptick in homicides and violent crime" (Brookings)
* Rafael A. Mangual, "Mass Decarceration Will Increase Violent Crime" (Manhattan Institute)
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