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Bi-Weekly Discussion - The Future of Work After COVID & ChatGPT

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Brian B.
Bi-Weekly Discussion - The Future of Work After COVID & ChatGPT

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This is going to be an online meetup using Zoom. If you've never used Zoom before, don't worry — it's easy to use and free to join.

Click on the link below at the scheduled date/time...

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THE FUTURE OF WORK IN THE POST-COVID, POST-CHATGPT ERA

INTRODUCTION:

In our last meetup on "The Economics & Politics of Happiness", we discussed how a variety of social & economic factors affect the happiness & well-being of populations, but we didn't discuss one of the most obvious one - i.e. one's job!

In this meetup, we'll start by looking at how the job market has changed quite a bit in recent years as the COVID pandemic sped up the shift to remote work and a reprioritization of work-life balance. In the 2nd section, we'll discuss how the pandemic, along with Trump's trade war with China that has continued under Biden and Russian sanctions over the Ukraine invasion, showcased the fragility of global supply chains which led to a shift towards de-globalization & re-shoring of some jobs. In the 3rd section, we'll look at how corporate consolidation has increased and many small businesses have folded in recent years - particularly during the lockdowns in 2020 - and how many Americans are now looking at labor unions as a possible way of empowering workers to negotiate for more pay & better working conditions. In the 4th section, we'll finish up by considering how the fears of technological unemployment have spread from blue-collar workers to white-collar office workers & creative professionals with the rise of powerful new AI models like ChatGPT, and how we might address this potential problem.

As I mentioned before, this year I'd like to focus a bit more on how we can take what we're learning about shifts in our broader society and apply them to ourselves in a way that enables greater well-being & self-improvement. My reasoning here is rooted in Modern Stoicism's "dichotomy of control" - i.e. in order to be less stressed & more productive, we should focus more on things we can control like our own thoughts & actions and realize that a lot of problems we see with the economy, elections, foreign conflicts, etc. is outside our control. That doesn't mean it's useless to study macro trends, just that we need to keep it in perspective and realize that, as an old sailing metaphor goes, "We can't direct the wind, but we can adjust our sails."

So in this discussion, we'll try to use what we're seeing in terms of broader shifts in the economy and gain some insights into how we could improve our work-life balance, gain more autonomy, find a better work culture fit, negotiate for better pay, and hopefully avoid becoming unemployed due to automation or outsourcing.

NOTE: The "Clark Center Forum" mentioned in several links below used to be called the "IGM Experts Panel" - these are surveys of some of the top U.S. economists on a range of issues, conducted by the University of Chicago. Their views range from center-left Keynesians to center-right Neoclassical economists, so it gives you a sense of the current synthesis that prevails in mainstream economics departments in academia, which despite having more registered Democrats tends to be less skewed by partisan bias than the other social sciences.

RELEVANT MATERIALS FROM PAST MEETUPS:

Back in Dec. 2022, we had a meetup entitled "Understanding Our Post-COVID Economy". In the 2nd section, we discussed the effects of COVID on accelerating the shift to remote work, the emerging labor shortage as Baby Boomers retire, and the debates over the socio-economic phenomena of the "Great Resignation" and "quiet quitting". In the 4th section, we talked about how COVID's shock to supply chains -- along with the Russian sanctions and growing rivalry with China -- has led some experts to predict we're moving into an era of "deglobalization".

Back in Nov. 2022, Braver Angels hosted a workshop entitled "Does America Need A New Labor Movement?" and back in June 2022 they hosted a debate entitled "Do Unions Do More Harm Than Good?"

Back in May 2022, we had a meetup entitled "Is the Managerial Class Hurting America?" In the 2nd & 3rd sections, we looked at the arguments made in Richard Reeves' Dream Hoarders (2017), Matthew Stewart's The 9.9 Percent (2021), Michael Lind's New Class War (2020), and Joel Kotkin's The Coming of Neo-Feudalism (2020).

In July 2021, we had a meetup entitled "Does America Offer Equal Opportunity?" where we discussed the effects of family upbringing, education, hiring biases, and wage gaps on income mobility.

Back in Jan. 2020, we had a meetup entitled "Who's Better at Economics - Republicans or Democrats?" In the 1st section, we looked at whether Republican or Democratic voters tend to have more knowledge of basic economics, and we compared their credit scores & other measures of financial security to see if/how theoretical knowledge translates into practical life skills.

Back in Feb. 2021, we had a meetup entitled "The Future of Work in the Age of Automation" where we discussed concerns that many workers could be displaced by robots & computer algorithms in the near future, and possible solutions like a robot tax, universal basic income, and/or a federal jobs guarantee.

DIRECTIONS ON HOW TO PREPARE FOR OUR DISCUSSION:

The videos & articles you see linked below are intended to give you a basic overview of some of the major effects of remote work, deglobalization, corporate consolidation & automation. As usual, I certainly don't expect you to read all the articles prior to attending our discussion. The easiest way to prepare for our discussion is to just watch the numbered videos linked under each section - the videos come to about about 60 minutes total. The articles marked with asterisks are just there to supply additional details. You can browse and look at whichever ones you want, but don't worry - we'll cover the stuff you missed in our discussion.

In terms of the discussion format, my general idea is that we'll address the topics in the order presented here. I've listed some questions under each section to stimulate discussion. We'll do our best to address most of them, as well as whatever other questions our members raise. I figure we'll spend about 30 minutes on each section.

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I. THE EFFECTS OF TELECOMMUTING VS ON-SITE WORK, "QUIET QUITTING" & "QUIET HIRING" ON WORKERS & EMPLOYERS:

  • Has remote work made employees more or less productive? And are remote workers happier or lonelier - or both?
  • In what ways do you think remote work has changed the dynamics between employers and employees?
  • How do you interpret the concept of "quiet quitting"? Is it a form of boundary-setting or disengagement?
  • How are employers responding to "quiet quitting" - i.e. return to work order, outsourcing, attempts at micromanaging, etc.?
  • How can employers assess the impact of remote, hybrid, or in-office work on productivity, employee turnover, and company culture?
  • Will the inability of most blue-collar workers to take advantage of remote work depend class conflict & populist anger?

1a) Mark Mortensen, "Is Remote Work Better Than Being in the Office? It's Complicated" (video - 7:25 min.)

1b) CNBC, "How ‘Quiet Hiring’ Became The Workplace of 2023" (video - 7:00 min.)

II. THE EFFECTS OF DEGLOBALIZATION & RESHORING ON WORKERS & EMPLOYERS:

  • How have recent global events, such as the COVID-19 pandemic and geopolitical tensions, accelerated the "de-globalization" trend? And is that even the best term to use?
  • How can governments and businesses balance the need for economic growth with the sustainability and resilience of supply chains?
  • What are the major challenges companies face when reshoring manufacturing (e.g. inadequate investment, regulatory barriers, labor shortages), and what is a realistic timeline for seeing its benefits?
  • To what extent will cheaper labor in friendly or neutral countries (e.g. India, Mexico) result in "near-shoring" rather than "re-shoring" of manufacturing jobs? Or is the labor component of production small enough due to automation that it's easier to re-shore a lot of manufacturing to the U.S.?
  • How might high levels of automation in manufacturing affect the number and type of jobs created through reshoring?
  • How can policymakers as well as blue-collar workers themselves prepare for re-shoring that involves greater automation (e.g. upskilling/ reskilling)?

2a) Bloomberg, "How Far Can De-Globalization Go?" (video - 4:54 min.)

2b) CNBC, "Why Factories Are Coming Back To The U.S." (video - 11:29 min.)

III. THE EFFECTS OF SMALL BUSINESS BANKRUPTCIES, CORPORATE CONSOLIDATION & UNIONIZATION ON WORKERS & EMPLOYERS:

  • How does corporate consolidation impact competition and innovation within industries?
  • In what ways might the trend towards corporate consolidation affect workers' rights, wages, and working conditions?
  • What are the key differences in working for a large corporation compared to a small business, particularly in terms of autonomy, work culture, and job security?
  • Following the rise in startups, what opportunities do they present for individuals seeking more autonomy and a better work culture fit?
  • How can labor unions empower workers in both large corporations and small businesses?
  • What are the potential benefits and drawbacks of unionization for workers in today's economy?
  • Given the trends of corporate consolidation, the rise of startups, and the growing interest in labor unions, what policies could help balance the interests of workers, businesses, and the economy?
  • How might future technological advancements and economic shifts further influence these dynamics?

3a) Carol Roth (PragerU), "Small Business Is America" (video - 5:23 min)

3b) Joss Fong (Vox), "The fall (and rise?) of unions in the US" (video - 10:22 min)

IV. THE EFFECTS OF A.I. & AUTOMATION ON WORKERS & EMPLOYERS:

  • Do you believe that the fear of technological unemployment is justified based on historical transitions with technology? Why or why not?
  • What are some examples of successful integration of AI and human labor where both have played complementary roles?
  • How can creative professionals leverage AI tools to enhance their work and create new opportunities?
  • What roles do you envision for humans in a future where AI handles a significant portion of current jobs?
  • What skills and competencies do you think will be most valuable in an increasingly automated workplace? Will this require lifelong learning?
  • What roles can governments and educational systems play in preparing current and future generations for a workplace integrated with AI and automation?
  • What are the potential benefits and drawbacks of implementing a basic income guarantee in response to technological unemployment?
  • How might a basic income guarantee affect work-life balance, societal values towards work, and economic inequality?

4a) Vox, "The big debate about the future of work, explained" (video - 9:02 min.)

4b) CNBC w/ Martin Ford, "What jobs are safe from AI?" (video - 4:18 min.)

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Events in Remote Workers
EconomicsAutomationWork-Life BalanceLabor Unions
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