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This is going to be an online meetup using Zoom. If you've never used Zoom before, don't worry — it's easy to use and free to join.

Click on the link below at the scheduled date/time to log in...
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WHICH PARTY'S COALITION WILL CRACK FIRST?
UNDERSTANDING THE GROWING INTRA-PARTY TENSIONS...

INTRODUCTION:

In our last discussion, we talked about how the war in Gaza and protests on college campuses might influence the votes of Jewish & Muslim voters in the 2024 presidential election. In this meetup, we'll discuss some of the other tensions among socio-economic & demographic groups that are traditionally aligned with the same big-tent political parties in America. This is related to a topic we covered in a meetup back in Nov. 2022 entitled "Understanding the Great Realignment" where we discussed the possibility that "Trumpism" (i.e. nativist populism among the white working class) and the "Great Awokening" (i.e. the leftward shift on race & gender issues among college-educated whites) are realigning the two major parties, leading to a GOP that's more driven by a working-class/middle class coalition in the rural, suburban & exurban areas and a Democratic Party that's based around an multiracial urban coalition composed of a college-educated elite and lower-wage service workers.

There's 3 other major alternatives to the "Great Realignment" thesis:
(1) NO MAJOR CHANGES: The shifts in voter demographics are too small to realign American politics, at least in the near future, and both parties' coalitions will remain more or less the same.
(2) GOP CRACKUP: The Democrats will remain the multiracial coalition party but a backlash to "Trumpism" will siphon off a lot of the socially moderate, fiscally conservative "country club Republicans", leading to a GOP that is composed almost entirely of rural, working-class whites led by some elite grifters. This would probably cause havoc as the GOP grew more politically desperate since they couldn't win major elections, unless perhaps the former establishment Republicans came back & steered the party in a more moderate direction.
(3) DEM CRACKUP: A backlash against "wokeness" will help the GOP win back the business conservatives while also attracting more working class voters, leading to major losses for the Democrats & a discrediting of the Democratic establishment. Ironically, this might give the Bernie-style populists a second shot at taking over the Democratic party, as they aim to win back the working class with economic reforms instead of identity politics.

In the 1st section of this discussion, we'll look at signs of falling support among younger voters (18-29 age bracket) for President Biden. Some pundits have suggested this might not reflect an attraction to Trump so much as a growing disillusionment with Biden due to his support for Israel in their war against Hamas, and also the difficult economic conditions they've faced due to high inflation driving up the cost of food, gas & housing. However, other analysts have pointed to a growing gender divide in political affiliations as young women are becoming much more progressive than younger men - perhaps partly due to the growing gender divide in college attendance rates (only 42% of 4-year college students today are men). Regardless of the cause, if the youth vote is split, or if many dejected young voters stay home on Election Day - or cast a protest vote for a 3rd party candidate like RFK Jr. - this could cost Biden the election and probably lead to the Democrats losing congressional seats as well, and if the gender divide continues this problem may only get worse in subsequent elections.

In the 2nd section, we'll analyze the surprising rightward shift of some African-Americans and Hispanics (particularly men) during the Trump era, even amidst frequent controversies over Trump's racially charged remarks and anti-immigrant policies. We'll discuss whether this might represent a racial conflict, a gender conflict, or a socio-economic conflict with the Democratic Party's voter base, and if/how politicians might be able to repair or exploit these rifts. We'll also touch upon whether black & Hispanic voters may end up joining the GOP and reconciling with white conservatives over their common interests as workers struggling in a post-industrial America, as men dealing with common issues like divorce & child custody, and/or family-oriented religious conservatives alienated from an increasingly secular country.

In the 3rd section, we'll look at why there were signs of a growing split between Republican voters and Big Business starting in 2014 amid a Congressional fight over the Export-Import Bank, and how Trump's appeals to the interests of the white working class, e.g. a crackdown on immigration and free trade, exacerbated this divide. We'll also discuss how "corporate wokeness" (e.g. Gilette's ad "The Best Men Can Be", Nike's “Dream Crazy" ad with Colin Kaepernick, Budweiser's partnership with Dylan Mulvaney, Disney publicly objecting to Florida's "Don't Say Gay" bill) has poured fuel on the fire, and what to make of recent signs this apparent rift may be healing as some business execs sense we may have passed "peak woke".

In the 4th section, we'll look at some claims that there's a growing split between Trump's white working class base and the college-educated, middle to upper-class suburban whites (esp. women) who we might characterize as "business conservatives", "Reagan-Bush Republicans" or "country club Republicans". We'll look at the extent to which some of these voters have been repelled by some of Trump's rhetoric and/or the repeal of Roe v. Wade, or whether they're more bothered by the rift between the GOP and Big Businesses they often work for. We'll also ask whether we'll see an "awokening" (i.e. leftward shift) in the views of suburban whites on hot button topics involving race & gender if/when they join the Democrats, or whether their moderate views will pull the Democratic Party back towards the center.

OTHER RELEVANT MATERIAL FROM PAST MEETUPS:

In July 2022, we had a meetup entitled "Is Social Liberalism Dying?" In the 3rd section, we looked at the rise of Millennial socialism during the Occupy & Bernie eras which now appears to be in decline, leading some former "Bernie bros" to defect to what's been called the "Dirtbag left" (or "post-left"), a quasi-Marxist blogosphere community that's highly critical of the Democratic establishment. In the 4th section, we looked at how the "Great Awokening" has shifted the views of many white liberals to the left of black & Hispanic Democrats on issues of race, gender & sexuality. This has split white Democrats into "woke" and "anti-woke" camps that often mirror generational divides (i.e. Boomers & Gen-X tend to be less "woke" than Millennials & Gen-Z).

In June 2022, we had a meetup entitled "Is 'Constitutional Conservatism' Dying?" In the 3rd section, we looked at how "neoconservatives" (East Coast Straussians) are leaving the GOP to partner with establishment Democrats while the "Claremonsters" (West Coast Straussians) have become the ideological backers of Trumpism. In the 4th section, we looked at the rift over liberalism between "constitutional conservatives" and "Christian nationalists" on the religious right. We noted that the average voter isn't this nuanced in their political ideology, but these splits may play out on the policy level.

In Dec. 2020, we had a meetup entitled "Learning from the 2020 Election", and in the 2nd section we looked at how race, gender & class affected voting patterns. We saw that Biden made gains with white male voters (compared to Clinton in 2016), but Trump made gains with black and Latino voters, particularly men (compared to both Romney in 2012 & his own performance in 2016). We also discussed how it was hard to pin down how white women voted, since they're not a homogenous voting bloc and the fault lines depend largely upon marital status, income & educational level, and locale (urban/suburban/rural).

Note: The bar graph above comes from an April 2024 report by the Pew Research Center titled, "In Tight Presidential Race, Voters Are Broadly Critical of Both Biden and Trump."

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DIRECTIONS ON HOW TO PREPARE FOR OUR DISCUSSION:
The videos & articles you see linked below are intended to give you a basic overview of some of the major debates over tensions between demographic groups that normally support the same political party. As usual, I certainly don't expect you to read all the articles prior to attending our discussion. The easiest way to prepare for our discussion is to just watch the numbered videos linked under each section - the videos come to about about 53 minutes total. The articles marked with asterisks are just there to supply additional details. You can browse and look at whichever ones you want, but don't worry - we'll cover the stuff you missed in our discussion.

In terms of the discussion format, my general idea is that we'll address the topics in the order presented here. As you can see, I've listed some questions under each topic to stimulate discussion. We'll do our best to address most of them, as well as whatever other questions our members raise. I figure we'll spend about 30 minutes on each section.

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I. UNDERSTANDING TENSIONS BETWEEN YOUNGER MEN & YOUNGER WOMEN & ITS EFFECT ON THE DEMOCRATIC COALITION:

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1a) TLDR News, "Why are Gen-Z Women so Much More Liberal than Men?" (video. 8:57 min, listen to 7:30)

1b) WION, "Biden losing appeal among young voters?" (video - 3:39 min.)

II. UNDERSTANDING TENSIONS BETWEEN WHITE LIBERAL ELITES & THE BLACK/HISPANIC WORKING CLASS (ESP. MEN) & ITS EFFECT ON THE DEMOCRATIC COALITION:

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2a) Tanya Rivero (CBS) w/ Jennifer Medina, "Democrats question why Latino men are shifting to the GOP" (video - 7:57 min.)
2b) Gayle King (CNN), "Van Jones, [Charles Barkley] & Coleman Hughes discuss Trump’s appeal to some Black voters'" (video - 10:55 min.)

III. UNDERSTANDING TENSIONS BETWEEN BIG BUSINESS & THE WHITE WORKING CLASS & ITS EFFECT ON THE REPUBLICAN COALITION:

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3a) Greg Walters (Vice), "Republicans Loved Corporations… Until They Got ‘Woke’" (video - 8:39 min.)
3b) Farron Cousins (Ring of Fire), "Corporations Are About To Start Giving Even More Money To Republicans" (video - 4:22 min.)

IV. UNDERSTANDING TENSIONS BETWEEN TRUMP'S BASE & COLLEGE-EDUCATED / SUBURBAN WHITE VOTERS (ESP. WOMEN) & ITS EFFECT ON THE REPUBLICAN COALITION:

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4a) David Pakman, "Are College Educated Whites Really Becoming More Liberal?" (video - 4:53 min.)
4b) CBN, "This Big Shift in Suburban Women Voters Could Hold the Key to the 2024 Election" (video - 4:16 min.)

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Economics
Psychology
Candidates and Elections
Political Science
Political Polarization

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