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Bi-Weekly Discussion - Trump's Economic & Social Policies

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Brian B.
Bi-Weekly Discussion - Trump's Economic & Social Policies

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This is going to be an online meetup using Zoom. If you've never used Zoom before, don't worry — it's easy to use and free to join.

Click on the link below at the scheduled date/time to log in...

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TRUMP'S ECONOMIC & SOCIAL POLICIES: FORECASTING THE BEST & WORST CASE SCENARIOS

INTRODUCTION:

Since Donald Trump won reelection back in November, there's been several months of speculation among news media pundits on how his proposed policies may affect Americans, and to what extent his second term might resemble or differ from his first. And since he took office again on Monday, Jan. 20th, this speculation has intensified, focusing on the slew of executive orders he's signed which mostly dealt with immigration, international trade, energy & the environment, DEI policies, and the federal workforce. Just like the beginning of his 1st term in 2017, Trump's critics have predicted various disastrous results from his policies, while Trump's supporters have anticipated all sorts of benefits. So which set of predictions should we believe, based on the evidence we have available about these policies? In this discussion, we'll explore this topic by looking at both the best-case & worst-case scenarios, aiming to bookend our assumptions about what's likely to happen in the coming years while keeping in mind there's always a degree of uncertainty.

To avoid some of the catastrophic thinking we saw among left-leaning pundits in Trump's 1st term who imagined we'd end up with a fascist dystopia akin to Margaret Atwood's "The Handmaid's Tale," as well as the overly optimistic thinking among Trump supporters who believed he could easily "Make America Great Again" in 4 years, it will help if we keep several things in mind while assessing predictions for Trump's 2nd term:

  1. As in Trump's 1st term, there's the question of whether to take much of what he says "seriously, but not literally."
  2. There's various checks & balances that limit the President's power, even when his party also controls Congress.
  3. There's often tensions among the various factions of the President's administration, and in Trump's 1st term this often led to chaos & rapid turnover of appointees.
  4. Populist leaders often face a shortage of qualified appointees who know how the levers of government work, although this may've change in Trump's 2nd term.
  5. Even if/when you can pass legislation, there's often major logistical hurdles to enforcing it.
  6. The electorate is often fickle and the prevailing political mood tends to shift against the president's party by the midterms, leading to a divided Congress that limits their ability to pass legislation.
  7. Any sort of policy that quickly leads to a recession or high inflation is liable to get the incumbent voted out of office in the next election.
  8. Unless a single party wins multiple presidential elections back to back, many of their policy achievements can be undone by the next administration.

There's also several general tips that come to mind for evaluating political news coverage during the next 4 years, many of which we've covered in past meetups:

  1. Try to find polls of subject matter experts to determine if there's a consensus on a particular point of contention, and if so look to see how strong it is, and if there's any caveats or exceptions.
  2. To account for the left-leaning bias in polls of academic social scientists, you can also refer to reports from scholars at right-leaning think tanks (e.g. AEI, Hoover, Cato, American Compass, Claremont, Heritage) although keep in mind they'll have their own biases. Look for "admissions against interest" (grudgingly or implicitly conceding a point to the other side) to help you establish what the rationalist community calls "bounded distrust".
  3. If you hear on the news that an action by the administration is "outrageous" and "unprecedented", look to see if there's any precedent for past administrations doing something similar. (However, keep in mind that just because past presidents have done something, it doesn't mean it's a good idea.)
  4. When trying to predict the outcome of a policy, use the tips that Philip Tetlock discussed in his book "Superforecasting", e.g. look at similar cases in the past to generate a "prior probablity", update your current probability as new evidence becomes available using Bayesian inference, break seemingly intractable problems into tractable sub-problems using Fermi estimates, try to strike the right balance between "inside" (event-specific) and "outside" (reference class) views, try to strike the right balance between under- and overreacting to new evidence, by using Bayesian-style updating, and look for the clashing causal forces at work in each problem, and consider multiple theories & models.

RELEVANT MATERIAL FROM PAST MEETUPS:

Way back in Oct. 2018, we had a meetup entitled "Trade Deals & Trade Wars" where we discussed international trade from the perspective of the economics, international relations, social psychology, and political science, and touched upon the possible effects of a US-China trade war.

Back in Nov. 2021, we had a meetup entitled "Understanding the Immigration Debate" where discussed the issue form the perspectives of moral psychology, ethical philosophy, economics, and sociology. Also in Nov. 2021, there was also a related Skeptics meetup entitled "Is Mass Migration a Crisis or a Moral Panic?" that covered some of the misconceptions that surround the issue of illegal immigration, particularly concerns about rapid demographic change, an illegal immigrant crime wave, overburdened social programs, and widespread voter fraud.

Since we're covering Trump's DEI rollback, it may be useful to refer back to our last meetup entitled "From Peak Woke to Post-Woke: What Was the 'Great Awokening' & Is It Over?" as well as some earlier ones, like one from Mar. 2022 entitled "The 'Great Awokening' and CRT Debate" where we looked at academic & corporate diversity trainings then en vogue & their critics, as well as one from Aug. 2020 entitled "Is Cancel Culture a Real Threat?" where we looked at whether attempts to control the social environment through deplatforming, firing & blacklisting people for objectionable speech was harming the "marketplace of ideas".

DIRECTIONS ON HOW TO PREPARE FOR OUR DISCUSSION:

The videos & articles you see linked below are intended to give you a basic overview of some of the debates over the Trump administration's domestic policies. As usual, I certainly don't expect you to read all the articles prior to attending our discussion. The easiest way to prepare for our discussion is to just watch the numbered videos linked under each section - the videos come to about 48 minutes total. The articles marked with asterisks are just there to supply additional details. You can browse and look at whichever ones you want, but don't worry - we'll cover the stuff you missed in our discussion.

In terms of the discussion format, my general idea is that we'll address the topics in the order presented here. I've listed some questions under each section to stimulate discussion. We'll do our best to address most of them, as well as whatever other questions our members raise. I figure we'll spend about 30 minutes on each section.

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I. TRUMP'S PROTECTIONIST TRADE POLICY & TARIFFS:

1a) WSJ, "Why Economists Hate Trump's Tariff Plan" (video - 8:18 min)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_-eHOSq3oqI

1b) Richard Quest w/ Oren Cass, "Oren Cass on Donald Trump's tariff proposals" (video - 5:21 min)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=St1cFLfSHf8

II. TRUMP'S IMMIGRATION POLICIES & PROMISES OF MASS DEPORTATIONS:

2a) NBC, "Birthright citizenship explained: Legal experts weigh in on recent controversy" (video - 4:42 min)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YwVtRmLxA-E

2b) Simon Whistler, "What Would Happen If Illegal Immigrants Were Removed from America?" (video - 11:32 min)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3rjE2IzCrm0

III. TRUMP'S RENEWED PROMISES TO "DRAIN THE SWAMP", CREATION OF "DOGE" & CONFLICTS BETWEEN TAX CUTS & DEBT REDUCTION:

3a) NBC4 Washington, "Who would Trump’s federal employee cuts affect? A look at workforce data" (video - 2:09 min)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CDAGFALO0Sg

3b) TLDR News, "[DOGE and] Elon Musk's Plan to Balance the US Budget Explained " (video - 8:41 min, listen to 7:20)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vv7TzklhPkk

IV. TRUMP'S ROLLBACK OF AFFIRMATIVE ACTION & "DEI" POLICIES:

4.) The Hill, "Trump Purges Federal DEI Programs, Overturns LBJ Executive Order On Affirmative Action" (video - 11:17 min)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hk_eNbzxCBo

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