Skip to content

Details

This is going to be an online meetup using Zoom. If you've never used Zoom before, don't worry — it's easy to use and free to join.

Click on the link below at the scheduled date/time to log in...

***

***

THE UKRAINE WAR AT 3 YEARS: (HOW) WILL IT END?

INTRODUCTION:

In this meetup, we'll look at what's happened in the Russo-Ukrainian War since the invasion began almost 3 years ago on Feb. 24, 2022 and try to predict what the most likely outcomes of this war are in the coming year, while keeping in mind the various unknowns and contingent factors. We'll also discuss how the war reports we hear in the news media and the predictions about what will happen are shaped by competing political ideologies. Much of the news media analysis suffers from what H.R. McMaster has called "strategic narcissism" - i.e. "our tendency to view the world only in relation to us, and then to assume that what the United States does, is decisive to achieving a favorable outcome.”

In this discussion, we'll do our best to avoid this sort of narcissistic bias that tries to turn the Ukrainian War into a "morality play" tied to America's culture war, and we'll try to cultivate "strategic empathy" which McMaster defines as an understanding of "the agency, the influence, the authorship over the future that others have and, in particular... the ideology and the emotions and the aspirations that drive and constrain the other, especially rivals, adversaries and enemies.” (Note: We'll also try to remember the "fact-value distinction" and separate what we think *will* happen from what we *want* to happen.)

And now that Trump is back in office, we'll try to avoid the "Trump Derangement Syndrome" to which many commentators are succumbing while still remaining critical of Trump. Specifically, we'll try to balance the need to call out Trump's lies & hypocrisies and the way he alienates allies with the need to recognize there's some "method in his madness" - i.e. he's probably not merely crazy or evil but rather a transactional thinker who's always trying to make a great deal, and who uses outrageous rhetoric & threats to that end. Thus, it's worth considering that Trump may be more analogous to Richard Nixon crossed with P.T. Barnum than "the second coming of Hitler" or "my drunk uncle spouting off about geopolitics".

In the 1st section, we'll look at some arguments from pundits & analysts who are still optimistic that we could see a peace treaty that will include some sort of "security guarantee" for Ukraine - such as automatic NATO membership if Russia attacks again, along with Western investment to help rebuild the country. Both a security guarantee and foreign investment may be connected to the deal for U.S. access to Ukraine's rare earth minerals that Trump has mentioned. Some even hope for the return of some of the lost Ukrainian territories, either from Ukraine swapping them for the (admittedly small) areas it still controls in Russia's Kursk region - or more likely, in exchange for the lifting of Western sanctions on Russia. These optimists often believe that Russia's economy is teetering on the brink of collapse due to sanctions and wartime spending, and that this will be the key to getting concessions from Putin.

In the 2nd section, we'll look at some arguments from pundits & analysts who think that the most likely course is a peace treaty or ceasefire based on Ukraine's "armed neutrality" based on continued Western military aid rather than any security guarantees from NATO. (This outcome is sometimes referred to as "Finlandization" because it resembles Finland's officially neutral status during the Cold War after it lost territory to the Soviet Union during the WW2.) This scenario often assumes we'll see either frozen battle lines or some territorial concessions by Ukraine in its 4 eastern oblasts - Dontesk, Luhansk, Kherson Zaporizhzhia - that Russia formally annexed back in Sept. 2022. Although this outcome is less ideal than the one described in the 1st section, some analysts still see it in a relatively optimistic light and hope that it may lead to reduced tensions & rapprochement between the West & Russia. Some analysts think this may be part of Trump's attempt to drive a wedge between Russia & China, what some are calling a "reverse Nixon" strategy.

In the 3rd section, we'll look at some arguments from pundits & analysts who think that it's unlikely that we'll see any peace treaty, and that Russia will probably continue its slow & costly conquest of Ukraine, possibly leaving an independent but impoverished "rump state" if they can cut off Ukraine's access to the Black Sea by taking Odessa. However, there's still some hope under this scenario that Russia will be exhausted by the effort, perhaps due to Ukrainian forces switching to guerilla tactics. In this case, Russia may not want to risk invading NATO countries, preferring instead to use its typical "hybrid warfare" methods like election interference, cyberattacks, propaganda meant to sew divisions, and sponsorship of right-wing Euroskeptic parties. Under this scenario, Russia's next targets of outright military aggression are likely to be the former Soviet republics of Moldova & Georgia, as well long with attempts to re-establish a Mediterranean port in Libya now that Russia's lost access to Syria after Assad was deposed.

In the 4th section, we'll look at some arguments from pundits & analysts who fear that Russia will completely conquer Ukraine or turn it into a "puppet state" with a compliant leader like in Belorussia, likely as a result of the U.S. cutting off all military aid to Ukraine. Under this scenario, the Trump administration's disengagement from NATO emboldens Russia enough to launch an attack on a NATO country (e.g. one of the Baltic state or Finland) within the next decade, sparking a broader conflict in Europe that could quickly escalate into World War 3. This is the latest nightmare scenario envisioned by pundits & analysts who argue that attempts to appease Putin in Ukraine are akin to Neville Chamberlain's attempts to appease Hitler with the Munich Agreement in 1938 and will just embolden him and result in an even greater chance of a major war in the near future.

Of course, each of these 4 scenarios contains multiple components, so it's quite possible that what we'll see in reality will be a mix. For example, we may see the Russian economic crisis mentioned in the 1st section alongside a treaty that puts Ukraine formally into the "armed neutrality" described in the 2nd section, but that instead of detente with Russia we see more of the "hybrid war" described in the 3rd section.

NOTE: We should start by noting that while we can get the opinions of various military leaders & foreign policy experts in news coverage of the war, it's hard to get a sense of the broader expert consensus (if one exists) because there hasn't been a poll of international relations scholars that I'm aware of aside from the College of William & Mary's TRIP Program SNAP polls in March 2022 and July 2023. Those polls merely revealed that most IR scholars thought the US should sanction Russia and send military aid to Ukraine, but should not try to implement a no-fly zone and should avoid direct NATO-Russia conflict. It also showed they were concerned the "nuclear taboo" was being weakened for Russia, and that the abortive Wagner rebellion showed an instability that might make this worse. However, many also thought the Wagner incident suggested the likelihood of Russia losing the Ukraine conflict and/or leadership change occurring in Russia was higher than before.

RELEVANT MATERIAL FROM PAST MEETUPS:

In Oct. 2021, we had a meetup entitled "Can We Predict Geopolitical Conflict?" We looked at how to predict the onset of wars, WMD development & usage, military coups & popular revolts, as well as civil wars & genocide. We tried to apply some of Phil Tetlock's tips for geopolitical forecasting, like: (1) break seemingly intractable problems into tractable sub-problems, using Fermi estimates, (2) strike the right balance between "inside" (event-specific) and "outside" (reference class) views, (3) strike the right balance between under- and overreacting to new evidence, by using Bayesian-style updating, and (4) look for the clashing causal forces at work in each problem, and consider multiple theories & models.

In a meetup back in April 2022, we talked about different frameworks for understanding the Ukraine conflict (neoliberal, critical, realist, constructivist) and noted how they roughly align with different U.S. political factions (establishment Democrats & neocons, progressive activists, establishment Republicans, right-wing populists).

In Feb. 2023, we looked at the probabilities for 4 different outcomes for the "Ukraine War after 1 Year" - Russian victory, Ukrainian victory, stalemate/frozen conflict, direct NATO-Russian conflict - and then in Mar. 2024 we had a meetup entitled "The Ukraine War at 2 Years" where we reevaluated the probabilities of these 4 outcomes after the failed Ukrainian offensive in summer 2023 and the abortive Wagner Group rebellion.
.
DIRECTIONS ON HOW TO PREPARE FOR OUR DISCUSSION:

To prepare for our discussion, please watch these 2 videos beforehand, which comes to about 32 minutes total:
1) Kyiv Independent, "How Will Russia's War End?" (video - 13:35 min.)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FtZeoMVSYfM

2) William Spaniel, "Five (and a Half) Problems with Trump's Peace Plan and His First Steps as President" (video - 18:33 min.)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0yllJXHEXWU

The articles you see linked below under each section are just there to supply additional details. You can browse and look at whichever ones you want, but don't worry - we'll cover the stuff you missed in our discussion.
In terms of the discussion format, my general idea is that we'll address the topics in the order presented here. I've listed some questions under each section to stimulate discussion. We'll do our best to address most of them, as well as whatever other questions our members raise. I figure we'll spend about 30 minutes on each section.

***

I. POSSIBLE ENDING #1: PEACE TREATY WITH SECURITY GUARANTEE FOR UKRAINE, ALONG WESTERN INVESTMENT & (POSSIBLY) SOME REGAINED TERRITORIES, AS RUSSIA GROWS MORE ECONOMICALLY FRAIL & DESPERATE

II. POSSIBLE ENDING #2: PEACE TREATY WITH ARMED NEUTRALITY (A.K.A. "FINLANDIZATION") FOR UKRAINE & FROZEN BATTLE LINES OR MILD TERRITORIAL CONCESSIONS IN DONBAS; POSSIBLE DETENTE WITH RUSSIA AS PART OF "REVERSE NIXON" STRATEGY

III. POSSIBLE ENDING #3: NO PEACE TREATY - RUSSIA CONTINUES CONQUEST OF UKRAINE, POSSIBLY LEAVING A RUMP STATE, BUT THIS EXHAUSTS RUSSIA; PUTIN'S FOCUS SHIFTS TO "HYBRID WAR" AGAINST NATO & AGGRESSION AGAINST NON-NATO COUNTRIES (E.G. MOLDOVA, GEORGIA, LIBYA)

IV. POSSIBLE ENDING #4: RUSSIA CONQUERS UKRAINE OR TURNS IT INTO A PUPPET STATE, U.S. DISENGAGEMENT FROM NATO EMBOLDENS RUSSIA ENOUGH TO ATTACK A NATO COUNTRY (E.G. BALTIC STATES, FINLAND) WITHIN NEXT DECADE, SPARKING A BROADER CONFLICT - POSSIBLY WW3!

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Military
Russian
International Relations
Foreign Policy Topics
Ukraine

Members are also interested in