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Bi-Weekly Discussion - What Is/Was The "Liberal International Order"?

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Brian B.
Bi-Weekly Discussion - What Is/Was The "Liberal International Order"?

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This is going to be an online meetup using Zoom. If you've never used Zoom before, don't worry — it's easy to use and free to join.

Click on the link below at the schedule date/time to log in...

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WHAT IS/WAS THE "LIBERAL INTERNATIONAL ORDER"?

INTRODUCTION:

With the beginning of Trump's second term, he's threatened not to come to the aid of NATO allies that don't pay their fair share, cut the EU and Ukraine out of peace talks with Russia, threatened to level tariffs on nominally allied nations, withdrawn from the World Health Organization & Paris Climate Accords, cut funding for USAID, and sanctioned the International Criminal Court. This has led many pundits & foreign policy analysts are worried the U.S. is essentially abandoning its role as an international leader and that this will lead to the demise of what's known as the "liberal international order" (abbreviated LIO).

Briefly, the LIO is also known as the "liberal international economic order" (LIEO), the "rules-based order", the "US-led liberal international order", and several other variants, and it is a notion that contemporary international relations are organized around several guiding principles, such as open markets, multilateral institutions, liberal democracy, and leadership by the United States and its allies.

This meetup will explore how the LIO works, whether or not this order is as beneficial as its proponents claim, why it's declined in recent years, and what the consequences might be for a post-LIO world.

The LIO was established in the aftermath of World War II, and is often associated with the "Pax Americana", the idea that the relative world peace (lack of major world wars) since 1945 is caused by American military dominance.

International organizations play a central role in the liberal international order. The World Trade Organization, for example, creates and implements free trade agreements, while the World Bank provides aid to developing countries, provided they adhere to 10 economic policy prescriptions that included fiscal policy discipline, trade liberalization, privatization, deregulation, and legal security of property rights for foreign investors. The policy guidelines are known as the "Washington Consensus".

The LIO is tied into the Washington Consensus and premised on the notion that free trade and free markets will contribute to global prosperity and peace.

Critics argue that the LIO tilts the scales in favor of the United States and its Western allies, as seen in voting shares in the International Monetary Fund and World Bank. Some see China as a potential challenger to the liberal order, as its initiatives such as the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank and One Belt One Road Initiative appear to compete with existing international institutions, and China has shown a country doesn't have to democratize in order to liberalize its economy & experience major economic growth. China's alternative model for development is referred to as the "Beijing Consensus".

The fall of the Soviet Union, the democratization of Eastern European nations & their entry into NATO, and the economic reforms of China leading to its admission to the WTO in 2001 made the LIO appear like manifest destiny in the 1990s & early 2000s. However, many Western nations have seen a recent decline in public support for certain aspects of liberal democracy, free trade, international institutions & military alliances. These pessimistic sentiments have been attributed to a variety of causes that preceded Trump & Brexit:

  • the US decision to invade Iraq without UN authorization,
  • the inability to implement democracy in Afghanistan & Iraq,
  • the failure of the Arab Spring to bring democracy to the Middle East,
  • the 2008 financial crisis & the shaky economic recovery,
  • the EU debt crisis from 2009 to 2014,
  • Russia's seizure of Crimea in 2014,
  • rising income inequality in Western nations stemming from deindustrialization, financialization & globalization,
  • multiple migrant/refugee crises in both Europe & the US,
  • increasing political polarization & the rise of populism in both the US & Europe.

In 2016, with Brexit & the election of Donald Trump, many scholars & political leaders became worried that public support for key aspects of the LIO were in peril and that an international political shift towards populism & nationalism was underway that put the entire LIO in jeopardy. These concerns briefly abated during Biden's presidency, but have returned stronger than before as Trump begins his 2nd term.

In this discussion, we'll break the LIO into its 4 principle components -
(1) democracy & human rights promotion, (2) the dollar hegemony & the economic policies of the Washington Consensus, (3) the military alliances that support Pax Americana, and (4) the multilateral "rules-based order" & international law. We'll look at what expert opinion & public opinion polls can tell us about each component.

RELEVANT MATERIAL FROM PAST MEETUPS:

The concerns with the LIO in this discussion tie into Larry Diamond's "democratic recession" thesis and the related concepts we covered in a discussion back in Feb. 2018.
https://www.meetup.com/Philadelphia-Political-Agnostics/events/xvbrznyxdbgb/

The democracy promotion discussed in Section 1 largely occurs through the use of "soft power". We discussed how political scientists look at soft power and contrast it with the "sharp power" of authoritarian regimes in a meetup back in Mar. 2018.
https://www.meetup.com/Philadelphia-Political-Agnostics/events/xvbrznyxfbxb/

Since the LIO is based on free trade agreements, it may pay to look back at a meetup we had back in Oct. 2018 where we covered trade policy from the perspectives of economists, IR scholars & social psychologists.
https://www.meetup.com/Philadelphia-Political-Agnostics/events/255219857/

In Section 2, we'll discuss concerns about the end of dollar hegemony. The Skeptics covered that in more detail in a meetup back in Feb. 2021 on the World Economic Forum's "Great Reset".
https://www.meetup.com/Philly-Skeptics/events/kwpswryccdbsb/

Aria led a discussion back in Apr. 2024 entitled "How the World Views America" that analyzed the impact of American pop culture, America's domestic policies, and the foreign policies of different U.S. administrations on the way people in the rest of the world view the U.S. & its citizens, either positively or negatively.
https://www.meetup.com/philadelphia-political-agnostics/events/300160283/

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DIRECTIONS ON HOW TO PREPARE FOR OUR DISCUSSION:

The videos you see linked below are intended to give you a basic overview of the different components of the "liberal international order". As usual, I certainly don't expect you to read all the articles & watch all the videos prior to attending our discussion. The easiest way to prepare for our discussion is to just read the numbered videos linked under each section - this should take about 47 minutes total to get through. The articles marked with asterisks are just there to supply additional details. You can browse and look at whichever ones you want, but don't worry - we'll cover the stuff you missed in our discussion.

In terms of the discussion format, my general idea is that we'll address the 4 topics in the order presented here. I figure we'll spend about 30 minutes on each section. I've listed questions under each section which we'll do our best to address.

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I. DEMOCRATIC PEACE THEORY, THE DEMOCRATIC RECESSION & PROMOTING DEMOCRACY AT HOME & ABROAD:

  • IS THE "DEMOCRATIC PEACE THEORY" EMPIRICALLY VALID - I.E. DO DEMOCRACIES SELDOM OR NEVER GO TO WAR AGAINST EACH OTHER? IF SO, IS IT DUE TO DEMOCRACIES HAVING A "CULTURE OF CONTRACTS" OR MORE TRANSPARENT WAR READINESS? IF SO, WHY AREN'T DEMOCRACIES LESS LIKELY TO GO TO WAR WITH AUTOCRACIES?
  • IS "TERRITORIAL PEACE THEORY" A BETTER EXPLANATION OF THE CORRELATION BETWEEN DEMOCRACY & PEACE - I.E. NATIONS WITH MORE STABLE BORDERS ARE MORE LIKELY TO DEVELOP DEMOCRACY?
  • IS THERE A "DEMOCRATIC RECESSION", EVEN THOUGH THE NUMBER OF DEMOCRACIES HAS INCREASED SINCE 2000? HAVE THE LEVEL OF FREEDOMS WITHIN DEMOCRACIES DECLINED? IF SO, WHY IS THIS HAPPENING?
  • SHOULD WE BE CONCERNED BY RECENT PUBLIC OPINION POLLS THAT APPEAR TO SHOW LESS SUPPORT FOR DEMOCRACY AROUND THE WORLD, ESP. AMONG YOUNG PEOPLE?
  • IS THERE AN INHERENT CONFLICT BETWEEN PROMOTING DEMOCRACY IN NON-DEMOCRATIC COUNTRIES & RESPECTING THEIR SOVEREIGNTY & SELF-DETERMINATION?
  • IF IT APPEARS THAT ATTEMPTS TO IMPOSE DEMOCRACY THROUGH MILITARY INTERVENTIONS ARE PRONE TO BACKFIRE, CAN DEMOCRATIC REFORMS BE ENCOURAGED IN OTHER WAYS, E.G. PROMOTING ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT VIA TRADE AGREEMENTS & FOREIGN INVESTMENT, FUNDING DEMOCRATIC ACTIVISTS, ETC?
  • HOW CAN THE "SOFT POWER" OF DEMOCRATIC REGIMES CONTEND WITH THE "SHARP POWER" OF AUTHORITARIAN REGIMES?

1a) NYT, "Is There Something Wrong With Democracy?" (video - 4:57 min.)
https://youtu.be/qdK5uK7B0Lo

1b) Stephen Walt, "Why the US Failed at Spreading American Values Globally" (video - 8:54 min.)
https://youtu.be/3QqRN8YNe_A

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II. FREE TRADE & CAPITALIST PEACE THEORY, CHINA'S AUTHORITARIAN GROWTH MIRACLE & THE FUTURE OF THE DOLLAR:

  • IS THE "CAPITALIST PEACE THEORY" EMPIRICALLY VALID - I.E. DO CAPITALIST COUNTRIES SELDOM OR NEVER GO TO WAR AGAINST EACH OTHER? IS THIS DUE TO TRADE RELATIONS, OR SOME OTHER FACTOR?
  • IS THE WASHINGTON CONSENSUS BENEFICIAL FOR DEVELOPING COUNTRIES, OR DOES THE IMF HELP CREDITOR NATIONS EXPLOIT THE DEVELOPING WORLD'S RESOURCES & TRAP THEM IN DEBT?
  • DO ECONOMISTS SEE FREE TRADE AS BENEFICIAL FOR DEVELOPED COUNTRIES, OR DOES IT CAUSE TOO MUCH UNEMPLOYMENT DUE TO CHEAP IMPORTS?
  • DOES ECONOMIC GROWTH FACILITATE DEMOCRATIZATION IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES BY CREATING AN EDUCATED MIDDLE CLASS & EASING SOCIAL TENSIONS DUE TO POVERTY, OR DOES CHINA'S "AUTHORITARIAN GROWTH MIRACLE" DISPROVE THIS?
  • DOES DEMOCRACY FACILITATE ECONOMIC GROWTH, OR HOLD IT BACK WITH POPULIST ECONOMIC POLICIES, NIMBYISM & RED TAPE, AS SOME ARGUE HAS HAPPENED IN LATIN AMERICA & INDIA?
  • IS THE "PETRODOLLAR SYSTEM" ILLIBERAL BECAUSE IT RELIES ON SAUDI ARABIA TO HELP MAINTAIN THE US DOLLAR AS THE WORLD'S RESERVE CURRENCY? OR IS THIS A MINOR FACTOR IN DETERMINING THE DOLLAR'S STRENGTH?
  • IS CHINA POISED TO BECOME THE WORLD'S LARGEST ECONOMY? COULD THIS ALLOW IT TO REPLACE THE DOLLAR WITH THE YUAN AS THE WORLD'S RESERVE CURRENCY? OR IS THIS UNLIKELY DUE TO CHINA MANIPULATING ITS CURRENCY TO MAKE ITS EXPORTS CHEAPER?

2a) Pavel Yakolev, "Does Trade Promote Peace?" (video - 2:40 min.)
https://youtu.be/VyyCTKosPOA

2b) County Office, "Does Economic Development Lead To Democracy?" (video - 2:25 min.)
https://youtu.be/VqwzOIk5-qc

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III. THE UNCERTAIN FUTURE OF NATO & PAX AMERICANA:

  • IN GENERAL, DOES HEGEMONY BY A SINGLE SUPERPOWER PROMOTE PEACE & STABILITY BETTER THAN A "BALANCE OF POWER" BETWEEN SEVERAL MAJOR POWERS?
  • DOES "HEGEMONIC STABILITY THEORY" EXPLAIN THE "LONG PEACE" DURING THE COLD WAR, OR IS THAT MORE ATTRIBUTABLE TO THE NUCLEAR ARMS STANDOFF BASED ON "MUTUALLY ASSURED DESTRUCTION" (MAD)?
  • DOES "HEGEMONIC STABILITY THEORY" EXPLAIN THE RELATIVELY PEACEFUL POST-COLD WAR WORLD? HAS THIS ALSO COME TO AN END WITH RUSSIA'S FULL-SCALE INVASION OF UKRAINE IN 2022 & CHINA'S THREATS TO RETAKE TAIWAN IN THE NEAR FUTURE?
  • IS "PAX AMERICANA" TRULY "LIBERAL" SINCE DURING THE COLD WAR IT OFTEN INVOLVED SUBVERTING DEMOCRATICALLY ELECTED GOV'TS & PROPPING UP FRIENDLY DICTATORS?
  • DOES THE UNITED STATES BENEFIT FROM BEING THE "POLICEMAN OF THE WORLD"? OR ARE NATO MEMBERS & PACIFIC RIM ALLIES LIKE JAPAN, SOUTH KOREA & AUSTRALIA "FREE RIDERS" THAT DON'T PAY THEIR FAIR SHARE?
  • DOES THE MAJOR CONTRIBUTION OF U.S. MILITARY SPENDING TO THE GROWING NATIONAL DEBT - I.E. IT'S OVER HALF OF OUR DISCRETIONARY BUDGET, WITH OUR CURRENT EXTERNAL DEBT-TO-GDP RATIO AT 94% - INDICATE THE U.S. IS FALLING PREY TO "IMPERIAL OVERSTRETCH" JUST LIKE THE EUROPEAN POWERS DID IN THE EARLY 20TH CENTURY?
  • DO MILITARY ALLIANCES IN GENERAL PROVIDE "EXTENDED DETERRENCE" OR DO THEY PROVOKE & ESCALATE WARS (E.G. WORLD WAR 1)?
  • SHOULD THE U.S. RISK NUCLEAR WAR TO PREVENT AN ALLIED COUNTRY FROM BEING INVADED - LIKE SOUTH KOREA OR THE BALTIC STATES? HOW ABOUT A NEUTRAL COUNTRY LIKE TAIWAN OR UKRAINE?
  • WOULD ALLOWING MORE U.S. ALLIES (E.G. JAPAN, GERMANY) TO DEVELOP THEIR OWN NUCLEAR WEAPONS AID DETERRENCE, OR WOULD THIS INCREASE THE CHANCES OF NUCLEAR WAR?

3a) Bret Stephens, "Should America be the World's Policeman?" (video - 5:30 min.)
https://youtu.be/176KRhEAgUs

3b) George Harrell, "Peter Zeihan & The Myth of the Pax Americana" (video - 32:06 min, start at 27:30)
https://youtu.be/vxWfs8bVgno&t=27m30s

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IV. CHALLENGES TO THE "RULES-BASED ORDER", MULTILATERALISM & INTERNATIONAL LAW:

  • ARE LIBERAL & CONSTRUCTIVIST IR SCHOLARS RIGHT TO THINK THAT INT'L LAW IS A SOCIAL NORM THAT CAN BE ENCOURAGED, OR ARE REALIST IR SCHOLARS RIGHT TO SEE "ANARCHY" AS THE NATURAL DEFAULT IN THE ABSENCE OF A "POLICEMAN OF THE WORLD"?
  • IS IT TRUE THAT MOST NATIONS OBEY INT'L LAW MOST OF THE TIME OUT OF SELF-INTEREST, AS LOUIS HENKEN CLAIMED? IF SO, IS THIS DUE TO A DESIRE FOR THE "SOFT POWER" THAT COMES BY BEING SEEN AS LAW ABIDING? IS THIS MOTIVE WEAKER FOR MAJOR POWERS WITH LOTS OF "HARD POWER"?
  • ARE THE INT'L COURT OF JUSTICE (ICJ) & INT'L CRIMINAL COURT (ICC) EFFECTIVE? HOW CAN THEY ENFORCE THEIR RULINGS WITHOUT THEIR OWN MILITARY?
  • IS INT'L LAW INHERENTLY OPPOSED TO DEMOCRACY, SINCE ITS INSTITUTIONS AREN'T DIRECTLY ACCOUNTABLE TO THE CITIZENS OF ANY STATE?
  • DID TRUMP'S PREFERENCE FOR BILATERAL OVER MULTILATERAL AGREEMENTS SIGNAL A SHIFT FROM A "RULES-BASED ORDER" TO A "DEALS-BASED ORDER" WHERE MAJOR POWERS TAKE ADVANTAGE OF SMALLER COUNTRIES?
  • WOULD IT BE WORTH CURTAILING DEMOCRACY PROMOTION IF IT MEANT RUSSIA & CHINA COULD BE ENTICED TO BUY INTO MULTILATERALISM & INT'L LAW?
  • DOES A SHIFT AWAY FROM MULTILATERALISM MAKE WARS MORE LIKELY, OR IS ITS MAJOR EFFECT TO IMPEDE ACTION ON "COLLECTIVE ACTION PROBLEMS" LIKE CLIMATE CHANGE & PANDEMICS?

4a) Viljam Engström, "Effectiveness of International Law" (video - 11:32 min.)
https://youtu.be/pWI6mQFT74c

4b) Simon Whistler, "The International Criminal Court: The Lame Arm of the Law?" (video - 16:39 min, start at 14:00)
https://youtu.be/e4CFt__iHu8&t=14m0s

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