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This is going to be an online meetup using Zoom. If you've never used Zoom before, don't worry — it's easy to use and free to join.

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IS THERE THERE A COHERENT "TRUMP DOCTRINE" EMERGING IN U.S. FOREIGN POLICY - AND IF SO, WHAT WILL ITS EFFECTS BE?

INTRODUCTION:

The topic for this meetup was inspired by an essay from the econ blogger Noah Smith that an old friend sent me last month entitled, "America is being sold out by its leaders." The tagline is: "If Trump and Elon think they can forge a grand right-wing alliance with China and Russia, they're heading for trouble." It's a long essay but if you're interested in reading the whole thing, you can click on the link below.
https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/america-is-being-sold-out-by-its

My friend asked me to evaluate Noah Smith's critique of Trump's foreign policy, which Noah thinks is tantamount to surrendering global hegemony to our biggest foes, Russia & China. Noah points to the mistakes he sees in Trump's reversals of Biden's industrial policies which he thinks could've quickly rebuilt America's manufacturing base and prepared us for the New Cold War he sees as inevitable. In my email response to my friend, I mentioned that as a geopolitical novice I was hesitant to analyze Noah's essay without looking at the expert consensus among IR scholars and seeing how other foreign policy experts evaluated Noah's take. My first stop was the College of William & Mary's TRIP Program which regularly surveys American IR scholars, but their last survey from Oct. 2024 wasn't that helpful since it didn't directly address any of Noah's theories. The poll showed how IR scholars thought U.S. foreign policy would differ in a Trump administration versus a Harris administration but didn't really explain why - although that's a problem with polls in general. However, despite the fact the IR scholars overwhelmingly favored Harris over Trump as a more effective leader, it was surprising to see that "experts see little difference in the probability of the conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine widening based on who wins the White House."

To get some contrasting opinions, I watched Noah's conversation with the political scientist Richard Hanania which ended up being more like Richard interviewing Noah rather than debating him, but it helped me understand Noah's arguments a bit more. I also watched Noah's debate with the libertarian economist Scott Sumner on the merits of industrial policy and the appropriate way for the U.S. to handle China, i.e. aggressive containment (Noah) versus cautious engagement (Scott). Scott's follow up blog post was helpful in reinforcing some points he only alluded to in their debate. I also watched a couple more longer talks on Trump's foreign policy, one where Ezra Klein interviewed the political scientist Fareed Zakaria and another where Peter Robinson interviewed the historian Niall Ferguson. The main area where Fareed & Niall differed from Noah are that they both admit that European leaders may've needed Trump's rude wake up call to force them to shoulder the burdens of increased defense spending. Niall is just as worried about America's manufacturing gap with China as Noah, but seems much more pessimistic about America's ability to close that gap. And while Niall like Noah fears Trump won't prepare the U.S. to take on China militarily, Fareed is encouraged by some signs that indicate Trump doesn't want to fight China and merely wants a better trade deal - since this reduces the chances of World War 3.

Of course, I don't expect our members to watch 4 hours of these pundits analyzing Trump's foreign policy, but I'll do my best to summarize their arguments as we delve into the broader discussions going on right now about whether pr not the second Trump administration has a coherent foreign policy - and if so, what it is...

In the 1st section, we'll look back at some discussions from Trump's presidential run in 2015-2016 and early on in his first term about the roots of his foreign policy. Some pundits pointed out his hyperbolic, cynical & transactional approach to foreign policy probably stemmed from his background in real estate deals and entertainment. Others drew parallels with the "paleoconservative" worldview of Pat Buchanan who was far more socially conservative than Trump but had made a similar case for tariffs, immigration restriction, and a noninterventionist foreign policy back in the 1990s. We'll also consider the apparent attraction to various authoritarian "strongmen" Trump displayed in his 1st term, and how that differs from Obama's attempts to negotiate with these sorts of leaders while fending off GOP charges of "appeasement" (e.g. Cairo speech, Russian reset, Iran nuclear deal).

NOTE: After some consideration, I've decided we won't waste time on the "Manchurian candidate" conspiracy theory that Trump is a covert Russian asset cultivated by the KGB & FSB over decades through bribery or blackmail. If you're interested in this, I found an article at The Conversation that does a decent job explaining why Occam's razor suggests the "useful idiot" theory is more plausible, and a Brookings Institution list of actions the first Trump administration took against Russia that "often seemed at odds with the President’s rhetoric" and suggests Trump alternates between being Russia's friend & foe due to a mix of his own personal whims and the influence of Russia hawks in his administration.

In the 2nd section, we'll look at Noah Smith's theory that Trump is attempting to pursue a containment policy for China and that his overtures to Russia are part of what he calls a "reverse Kissinger" strategy - or what other pundits have called a "reverse Nixon" move, i.e. lure Russia away from China just as Nixon exploited the Sino-Soviet split by unexpectedly visiting Mao's China. The IR scholar John Mearsheimer has pointed out that despite the drastic difference in the substance & style of Obama & Trump's foreign policies, there's a parallel with Obama's earlier attempt at a "Russian reset" to avert a Second Cold War and to allow him to "pivot to Asia", although this was opposed by elements of the foreign policy "blob".

In the 3rd section, we'll look at Noah Smith's theory that Trump's "America First" slogan is actually closer to Charles Lindbergh's original meaning from the 1930s, and that Trump wants to mostly withdraw the U.S. military from engagements in Eurasia and focus on reinforcing America's sphere of influence in the Americas. Most other pundits have referred to this possibility as a revival of the "Monroe Doctrine", noting that several of Trump's advisors like John Bolton & Rex Tillerson had promoted it in his first term. However, Trump's proposals to annex Greenland, conduct military strikes on Mexican drug cartels, retake the Panama Canal, and coerce Canada to join the U.S. as our 51st state has led many pundits to see a revival of the "Manifest Destiny" expansionism of the 19th century as a real possibility. However, they differ on how serious any of Trump's suggestions are and what their effects might be, for good or ill. Strangest of all is Trump's proposal for the U.S. to take over the Gaza strip after it's been cleared of Palestinians and rebuild it as a Riviera-style vacation resort, since this is way outside the U.S. sphere of influence in the Western hemisphere and opens U.S. occupational forces to terrorist attacks like the other Middle Eastern interventions that Trump condemned.

In the 4th section, we'll look at Noah Smith's theory that Trump - or perhaps Elon Musk - is trying to pull off something like Klemens von Metternich's "Concert of Europe" which was an alliance after the defeat of Napoleon between the major European powers (Great Britain, Austria, Russia, Prussia, and later France) that sought to prevent wars between them so they could focus on quashing the revolutionary sentiments unleashed by the French Revolution. Fareed Zakaria made a similar comparison to Bismarck's "League of Three Emperors" (Germany, Austria-Hungary, Russia) later in the 19th century which was intended to avoid war while keeping down restive ethnic groups tempted to revolt. Other pundits have made similar comparisons, claiming that Trump appears to want to abandon the "liberal international order" and join the emerging "axis of autocracies" composed of Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran. However, as we'll see, some foreign policy analysts are cautiously hopeful that Trump's overtures to Russia & China might yield some beneficial results, like a more limited form of multilateralism that could reduce international tensions and lead to cuts in wasteful defense spending & nuclear arm reductions.

In all 4 sections, we'll try to separate the aspects of Trump's foreign policy that are truly unorthodox and/or unrealistic from those that are somewhat similar to previous administrations and/or reflective of practical recommendations from mainstream foreign policy analysts and think tanks.

RELEVANT MATERIAL FROM PAST MEETUPS:

Back on Mar. 8, we had a meetup entitled "What Is/Was The 'Liberal International Order'?" where we discussed the diplomatic, economic, military & legal aspects of the post-WW2 liberal international order that depended on US hegemony that's now declining. We discussed whether the problems within the liberal international order - e.g. end of the Cold War alliance between US & Europe, backlash to "forever wars" in the Middle East, rise of China & decline in US manufacturing due to free trade with West - led to the rise of Trump, and how Trump appears to be further dismantling the rules-based order.

In a meetup on Feb. 23rd entitled "The Ukraine War at 3 Years" we discussed various possible ways the war could end, and briefly touched upon the "reverse Nixon" theory that Trump is trying to mollify Russia through his Ukraine War negotiations to split it away from China.

The Skeptics meetup had a discussion back in July 2023 entitled "Oliver Stone: Truth-Teller or Pseudo-Historian?" It looked at how Oliver Stone's profound disillusionment with American foreign policy after serving in the Vietnam War led to him gradually descending into conspiracy theories (e.g. JFK assassination) and a strange affection for authoritarian leaders (e.g. Stalin, Castro, Chavez, Putin) who he began to perceive as merely misunderstood or maligned by American leaders. Although Stone identifies as an anti-war liberal, this pattern of disillusionment leading to radicalization of foreign policy views seems to be what's now happening on the Trumpian right.

Back in Oct. 2021, we had a meetup entitled "Can We Predict Geopolitical Conflict?" We looked at how to predict the onset of wars, WMD development & usage, military coups & popular revolts, as well as civil wars & genocide. We tried to apply some of Phil Tetlock's tips for geopolitical forecasting, like: (1) break seemingly intractable problems into tractable sub-problems, using Fermi estimates, (2) strike the right balance between "inside" (event-specific) and "outside" (reference class) views, (3) strike the right balance between under- and overreacting to new evidence, by using Bayesian-style updating, and (4) look for the clashing causal forces at work in each problem, and consider multiple theories & models.

DIRECTIONS ON HOW TO PREPARE FOR OUR DISCUSSION:

The videos & articles you see linked below are intended to give you a basic overview of some of the major debates over the Trump administration's foreign policy. As usual, I certainly don't expect you to read all the articles prior to attending our discussion. The easiest way to prepare for our discussion is to just watch the numbered videos linked under each section - the videos come to about 55 minutes total. The articles marked with asterisks are just there to supply additional details. You can browse and look at whichever ones you want, but don't worry - we'll cover the stuff you missed in our discussion.

In terms of the discussion format, my general idea is that we'll address the topics in the order presented here. I've listed some questions under each section to stimulate discussion. We'll do our best to address most of them, as well as whatever other questions our members raise. I figure we'll spend about 30 minutes on each section.

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I. IS TRUMP'S "AMERICA FIRST" FOREIGN POLICY ROOTED IN TRANSACTIONAL THINKING FROM REAL ESTATE, PALEOCON OPPOSITION TO "GLOBALISM", OR AN ATTRACTION TO AUTHORITARIAN "STRONGMAN" TACTICS?

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1a) Bloomberg w/ David Sanger, "Trump Has a Transactional Approach to Foreign Policy" (video - 5:55 min)
https://youtu.be/hKBBYQh03j0?si=dQXU-2CtxJ-wlg3z

1b) NPR, "Pat Buchanan On Why He Shares Trump's Ideas On Foreign Policy" (video - 6:00 min)
https://www.npr.org/2016/05/05/476844409/pat-buchanan-on-why-he-shares-trump-s-ideas-on-foreign-policy

1c) BBC, "Why does President Trump admire strongmen leaders?" (video - 2:33 min.) https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=9lrn75fh44w

II. IS TRUMP DECREASING U.S. SECURITY COMMITMENTS IN EUROPE SO HE CAN "PIVOT TO ASIA" & TRYING TO PULL OFF A "REVERSE NIXON" & SPLIT RUSSIA'S ALLIANCE WITH CHINA (OR IRAN)?

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2a) John Anderson w/ John Mearsheimer, "Trump, Obama and the American Foreign Policy 'Blob' [and the Pivot to Asia]" (video - 6:31 min)
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=WciKH7o1mbw

2b) SWOT light, "Reverse Nixon or Reverse NATO? Trump's Risky Gamble" (video - 6:36 min)
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=xLqxi0DRSu0

III. IS TRUMP TRYING TO RENEW THE "MONROE DOCTRINE" & ASSERTING MORE CONTROL OVER THE AMERICAS WHILE RETREATING FROM EURASIA?

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3a) Crux, "Trump's Threats On Greenland, Panama Canal, Canada A Throwback To An Old Foreign Policy"
(video - 8:38 min)
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=DWPFO-1ttao

3b) TLDR News Global, "Trump's plan for a 'Greater America' explained" (video - 8:41 min, listen to 7:10)
https://youtu.be/U69pJN5UO84?si=1loJg7X1Fxn_6Qg_

IV. IS TRUMP TRYING TO JOIN THE "AXIS OF AUTOCRACIES" SO THEY CAN ALL FOCUS ON FIGHTING "THE ENEMY WITHIN" AND/OR QUASH LIBERALISM GLOBALLY - OR MERELY TO AVOID WORLD WAR 3?

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4a) The Intellectualist, "The New Axis of Autocracy: How Trump, Putin and Xi Are Quietly Dividing the World" (video - 8:36 min)
https://youtu.be/8DQYJx2k8IU?si=HYeG5VfrMRdz1ngR

4b) Noah Smith & Richard Hanania, "Trump, Elon, and Embracing the Future - the Metternich Theory" (video - 1:12:44, start at 41:00 & listen to 46:00)
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=V77EEcImGVs&t=41m0s

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