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This is going to be an online meetup using Zoom. If you've never used Zoom before, don't worry — it's easy to use and free to join.

Click on the link above at the scheduled date/time to log in...

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IS THE U.S. FACING AN ENERGY CRISIS - AND IF SO, WHAT'S THE SOLUTION?

INTRODUCTION:

This discussion serves as a follow-up to one we had back in August entitled "Understanding the 'Chip War' & 'AI Race' Between the U.S. and China" where we noted that the U.S. has a huge lead over China in the sheer number of data centers needed to power A.I., but many experts are concerned about the strains that these data centers are placing on the U.S. electrical grid. Some are even warning that increased demand for electricity from other sources like EV charging stations, cryptocurrency mining operations, reshoring of energy-intensive manufacturing (e.g. auto factories, chemical plants, steel mills, semiconductor fabs), and the shift from coal, oil & gas furnaces to electric heat pumps may be leading the U.S. towards a near-term energy crisis. So how concerned should we be, and how can an energy crisis be avoided?

To answer this question, we'll review the recent history of energy crises and their causes, and see if this can give us some insight into where we're headed. We'll also analyze how economic & political forces at the international, national, and state levels shape energy policy for better or worse...

In the 1st section, we'll briefly review the causes of the post-COVID "global energy crisis" that stretched from 2021 to 2023 which was exacerbated by Russia's invasion of Ukraine. We'll then discuss how this crisis and the specter of geopolitical turmoil in the near future (particularly tensions with China) has produced a new push for the U.S. to become "energy independent" (i.e. a net exporter of oil & natural gas). However, being a net oil exporter overlooks the fact that the U.S. must still import most of its oil, since the our refinery capacity is limited and the oil we produce via fracking is too "light" (low viscosity) and "sweet" (low sulfur content), whereas our refineries are still designed for the heavier, "sour" oil from the Middle East, Canada & Mexico - and retooling them would cost billions. And while the need for rare earth minerals for many components in our green energy infrastructure is now widely discussed, we'll also see how talk of "energy independence" often overlook the importance of "re-shoring" (or at least "near-shoring" or "friend-shoring") the manufacturing of critical inputs for domestic energy production, transmission & storage (e.g. solar panels, wind turbines, natural gas turbines, transformers, lithium-ion batteries).

In the 2nd section, we'll take a look back at the electrical grid failures in California in the summer of 2020 and Texas in the winter of 2021, and then discuss the additional strains on the gird mentioned above in the opening paragraph that could potentially overwhelm the U.S. electrical grid. We'll assess whether this could lead to a broader energy crisis in the near future if we don't build a lot more power stations (whether that's renewables, nuclear, or natural gas) and a more robust grid. As we'll see, most experts suggest building more high-voltage direct current (HVDC) lines for long-distance transmission tied into local "smart grids" that improve reliability & efficiency.

In the 3rd section, we'll look back at the debates over the Biden administration's energy policies, particularly the "Inflation Reduction Act" (IRA) which included clean energy tax credits and investments in clean energy manufacturing as well as targets for greenhouse gas emission reductions, as well as the "Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act" (IIJA) which included $65 billion allocated to upgrade the electric power grid and invest in clean energy transmission and $7.5 billion to build out a national network of electric vehicle (EV) charging stations. Proponents saw Biden's policies as a somewhat scaled-down version of the "Green New Deal" and hoped they would boost the economy through stimulus spending while speeding the U.S. towards a goal of net-zero carbon emissions by 2050. Critics argued that Biden's policies were attempting to phase out fossil fuels well before renewable could pick up the slack and would hurt the economy through higher energy prices and needlessly prolong the impact of the "global energy crisis" on the U.S.

In the 4th section, we'll look at more recent debates over the 2nd Trump administration's energy policies, particularly his executive actions like EO 14154 ("Unleashing American Energy") that aimed to boosts fossil fuel production by reviewing and removing what the administration considers "burdensome" regulations and EO 14156 ("Declaring a National Energy Emergency") that declared a national energy emergency to expedite the production of domestic energy resources. There's also the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" (OBBBA) which repealed clean energy tax credits created by the IRA, and included measures to expand oil, gas, and coal production, such as mandating lease sales in Alaska and the Gulf of Mexico, lowering royalties for coal mining, and providing tax breaks for oil and gas producers. Proponents see Trump's policies as pushing the U.S. towards increased energy independence while creating good-paying blue-collar jobs in the fossil fuel industry, while critics argued this was abandoning not only the U.S. commit to combating climate change but also ceding the future of renewable energy to China.

NOTE: One related issue we won't cover is "energy grid security", i.e. protecting our electrical grid & pipelines from natural disasters like hurricanes, as well as from physical attacks (e.g. the Metcalf power station attack of 2013) and cyberattacks (e.g. the Colonial Pipeline ransomware attack of 2021) from either terrorists or state actors. We may cover this important topic at a later date if there's sufficient interest.

RELEVANT MATERIAL FROM PAST MEETUPS:

Back in August, Braver Angels hosted a debate over whether nuclear power is necessary to mitigate climate change. A video clip posted in the comments sections summarizes some of the pro & con arguments made.

Back in April, we had a meetup entitled "Can 'Abundance Liberalism' Save the Democrats?" where we looked at arguments made in Ezra Klein & Derek Thompson's new book Abundance (2025) for why blue states have allowed NIMBYism and red tape to get in the way of efforts to build solar panel & wind farms, EV charging stations, and high-speed rail. Unfortunately, much of the progressive punditry opposes the reforms advocated by the "Abundance agenda" and may make this a political non-starter, at least in the near term.

Way back in June 2019, we had a meetup entitled "How Should We Deal With Climate Change?" where we discussed how economists have worked with climate scientists to estimate the economic damages that various levels of warming could cause, and how we could rapidly transition to low-carbon energy production. For our discussion on energy policy, the most pertinent part of the climate change meetup was the 2nd section where we looked at various plans like James Baker & George Scultz's "carbon tax & dividends" plan which involves using a carbon tax to nudge us towards renewable energy while funding a payout to consumers to offset a rise in gas prices & electric bills, the progressive Democrats' "Green New Deal" which connects Keynesian economic stimulus and "green jobs" with renewable energy build-out, and the more radical "de-growth" policies that entail putting an end to consumerism, suburban living in single-family homes, and private car ownership in favor of spartan living conditions in eco-friendly urban high-rises & mass transit.

Also back in June of 2019, the Skeptics meetup hosted a discussion entitled "Do We Need Nuclear Power, Biofuels & Fracking to Address Climate Change?" They looked at the limits of solar & wind energy due to problems with intermittency & energy storage, and why many scientists are proposing to expand nuclear power & biofuels, and in some cases even endorse fracking for natural gas as a "bridge technology" to reduce coal burning while we build up renewable energy capacity.

DIRECTIONS ON HOW TO PREPARE FOR OUR DISCUSSION:

The videos & articles you see linked below are intended to give you a basic overview of some of the major debates over U.S. energy policy and the prospects of a near-term energy crisis. As usual, I certainly don't expect you to read all the articles prior to attending our discussion. The easiest way to prepare for our discussion is to just watch the numbered videos linked under each section - the videos come to about 60 minutes total. The articles marked with asterisks are just there to supply additional details. You can browse and look at whichever ones you want, but don't worry - we'll cover the stuff you missed in our discussion.

In terms of the discussion format, my general idea is that we'll address the topics in the order presented here. I've listed some questions under each section to stimulate discussion. We'll do our best to address most of them, as well as whatever other questions our members raise. I figure we'll spend about 30 minutes on each section.

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I. HOW GEOPOLITICAL TURMOIL HAS DRIVEN A PUSH FOR "ENERGY INDEPENDENCE" THAT OFTEN NEGLECTS CRITICAL INPUTS:

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1a) Versed, "How The US Is Becoming Energy Independent" (video - 9:56 min)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Js_tWn8eTc

1b) Inside China Business, "Another casualty of the trade wars: now we don't have enough transformers [and gas turbines]" (video - 5:48 min)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xj2VjEJh62g

II. THE CALIFORNIA & TEXAS GRID FAILURES OF 2020-2021 & RISKS OF AN AMERICAN ENERGY CRISIS IN THE NEAR FUTURE:

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2a) Reason, "How California's Environmental Mandates Led to Blackouts [in Aug. 2020]" (video - 9:44 min)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X39W1U3Oqps

2b) Vox, "Texas's power disaster [in Feb. 2021] is a warning sign for the US" (video - 7:05 min)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zcrsgdl_hP0

2c) CBS w/ Nick Thompson, "Why America's power grid is being rebuilt for the age of AI" (video - 6:15 min)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OPc1wy1j4PM

III. DEBATE OVER BIDEN ADMINISTRATION'S PUSH FOR RENEWABLE ENERGY & ATTEMPTS TO PHASE OUT FOSSIL FUELS:

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3a) CNBC w/ Helima Croft, "The acid test for President Joe Biden's energy policy is if it gets you to net-zero by 2050" (video - 4:27 min)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KvT5w_r67iM

3b) Steve Forbes, "Why Biden’s Thinking On Energy Is Flawed And Possibly Deadly" (video - 3:41 min)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zPyhgaz4Pjc

IV. DEBATE OVER 2nd TRUMP ADMINISTRATION'S RENEWED FOCUS ON FOSSIL FUELS & DEEMPHASIZING RENEWABLE ENERGY:

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4a) Bloomberg, "Will Trump’s Plan to Lower Gasoline Prices Actually Pay Off?" (video - 8:47 min)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Byf4HjX6Iw

4b) Forbes, "What Donald Trump's Presidency Means For The Green Energy Sector" (video - 4:59 min)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cu6121Jna1c

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Climate Change
Smart Grid
Economics
Sustainable Energy
Electricity and Natural Gas

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