Bi-Weekly Discussion - Can "Abundance Liberalism" Save the Dems?

This is going to be an online meetup using Zoom. If you've never used Zoom before, don't worry — it's easy to use and free to join.

Click on the link below at the scheduled date/time to log in...

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WHAT IS "ABUNDANCE LIBERALISM" - AND CAN IT SAVE THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY?

INTRODUCTION:

In this meetup, we'll address the debate over "abundance liberalism", a.k.a. "the Abundance Agenda" or "supply-side progressivism", that was recently sparked by the high-profile release of Ezra Klein & Derek Thompson's new book Abundance (2025) that promotes increasing the supply of essential goods & services (e.g. housing, healthy food, clean energy & transportation, broadband internet access, healthcare, education, childcare) to make them more abundant & affordable in order to achieve progressive outcomes like reducing poverty and creating more economic opportunities. The "Abundance Agenda" can be thought of as an outgrowth of the "YIMBY" (Yes In My Backyard) movement of the Obama era that was centered in high-cost urban areas like NYC, DC, LA & San Francisco. The YIMBYs were a coalition of center-left liberals & center-right libertarians & business conservatives who were more narrowly focused on overcoming the NIMBY opposition of local homeowners and enacting zoning reform to enable more affordable housing to be built to meet growing demand.

For those who aren't aware, Klein & Thompson's book is merely the latest in a long-line of book by center-left academics & journalists making similar arguments with Matt Yglesias 2012 book The Rent Is Too Damn High: What To Do About It, And Why It Matters More Than You Think as one of the forerunners of the genre. Since then, notable examples of books promoting the reforms we now associate with "abundance liberalism" include Steven Teles' The Captured Economy: How the Powerful Enrich Themselves, Slow Down Growth, and Increase Inequality, Matt Yglesias's One Billion Americans: The Case for Thinking Bigger (2020), Jerusalem Demsas's On the Housing Crisis: Land, Development, Democracy (2024), Yoni Applebaum's Stuck: How the Privileged and the Propertied Broke the Engine of American Opportunity (2025), and Marc Dunkelman's Why Nothing Works: Who Killed Progress―and How to Bring It Back (2025). Several nonprofits and think tanks have taken up the cause of "abundance liberalism" in recent years, most notably the Niskanen Center, the Foundation for American Innovation, and the Breakthrough Institute.

In the 1st section of today's discussion, we'll look at the "blue state exodus" and how it's linked to the affordable living crisis in several blue states. From 1990 to 2021, a total of 13 million people left California, New York, Illinois, New Jersey & Massachusetts and migrated to Florida, Texas, North Carolina, Arizona, Tennessee, Nevada & South Carolina over the same period - and this exodus has only accelerated after COVID and the shift to remote work. As we'll see, initially Democratic Party analysts hoped this might turn some red states "purple" and allow moderate Democrats to win there. However, aside from Georgia, this doesn't appear to be the case, and now many of these analysts are now afraid that when the 2030 census is conducted this population shift will give more electoral power to red states like Texas & Florida that are gaining population at the expense of high-cost blue states due to more affordable housing options in their metro areas.

In the 2nd section, we'll look at several of the problems like NIMBYism from local activists and bureaucratic red tape that have prevented blue states from building more of the amenities like affordable housing, high-speed rail, electrical vehicle charging stations, solar panel & wind farms, etc., that the majority of their progressive-minded citizens claim to want. We'll also consider some of the reforms proposed by abundance liberals, notably zoning & building code reforms, expanding eminent domain, and giving mayors & governors the ability to ignore burdensome environmental regs (like NEPA) and to override the veto powers of NIMBY-ist citizen groups.

In the 3rd section, we'll look at critiques of abundance liberalism from both the libertarian right and the progressive left. In general, since abundance liberalism involves using deregulation to clear the path for large-scale construction projects devised by government technocrats, the libertarians oppose the Big Government aspect while the progressives oppose the deregulation aspect. We'll also discuss the related debate over whether - whatever its merits - abundance liberalism has "legs", i.e. can it gain enough electoral support in blue states to achieve some of its proposed reforms, or will it inevitably be crushed by the left-wing populists leading the anti-Trump resistance?

RELEVANT MATERIALS FROM PAST MEETUPS:

Way back in Aug. 2019, we had a meetup entitled "The Urban Housing Crises" where we discussed whether housing should be considered a human right, the economics of the housing market and the problem of NIMBY-ism (not in my backyard), the sociology of neighborhoods & forces driving residential segregation, and the political factions pushing for more or less housing.

Back in May 2022, we had a meetup entitled "Is the Managerial Class Hurting America?" and in the 1st section we briefly discussed the various urban problems (e.g. crime, homelessness) discussed in Joel Kotkin's book "The Human City" (2016), as well as Richard Florida's book "The New Urban Crisis" (2017) and Michael Shellenberger's "San Fransicko" (2021), all of which attribute these problems at least partly to the failing of the "professional managerial class" that staffs the municipal bureaucracies and comprises the most influential segment of the urban electorate.

Back in Oct. 2024, we had a meetup entitled "The Post-COVID Urban Doom Loop & Affordable Housing Crisis" where we explored how many urban areas paradoxically seem to be facing a flight of remote workers that are leaving many office spaces empty & vacant retail outlets as consumers move to online shopping and yet still have a shortage of affordable housing.

DIRECTIONS ON HOW TO PREPARE FOR OUR DISCUSSION:

The videos & articles you see linked below are intended to give you a basic overview of some of the major debates over the rise of the "abundance liberalism" concept among center-left think tanks, policy wonks & journalists. As usual, I certainly don't expect you to read all the articles prior to attending our discussion. The easiest way to prepare for our discussion is to just watch the numbered videos linked under each section - the videos come to about 46 minutes total. The articles marked with asterisks are just there to supply additional details. You can browse and look at whichever ones you want, but don't worry - we'll cover the stuff you missed in our discussion.

In terms of the discussion format, my general idea is that we'll address the topics in the order presented here. I've listed some questions under each section to stimulate discussion. We'll do our best to address most of them, as well as whatever other questions our members raise. I figure we'll spend about 30 minutes on each section.

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I. THE BLUE STATE EXODUS & ITS EFFECT ON POLITICS:

1.) The Recount, "Why People Are Leaving Blue States - and Why Dems Should Worry" (video - 12:12 min)
https://youtu.be/6QtCGrHW0Io

• Nate Moore, "The Blue State Exodus Should Scare Democrats: The electoral consequences could be massive."
  https://www.liberalpatriot.com/p/the-blue-state-exodus-should-scare
• Aseem Shukla,"When Californians migrate, they take their politics with them. In some states, that helped Trump win" (San Francisco Chronicle)
  https://archive.ph/nNuH7
• Alyssa Finley, "The Blue-State Exodus Helps Democratic Governors Win: Voter migration during the pandemic helped turned Florida red—and made liberal states more liberal."(WSJ)
  https://archive.ph/G5SGh
• Aaron M. Renn, "Migration Myths and Political Change"
  https://www.governing.com/now/migration-myths-and-political-change
• Justin Boggs, "Could New York turn red while Florida shifts blue? Movers could upend electoral map"
  https://www.scrippsnews.com/politics/could-new-york-turn-red-while-florida-shifts-blue-movers-could-upend-electoral-map

II. NIMBYISM, BUREAUCRATIC RED TAPE & "COST DISEASE SOCIALISM" AS CAUSES OF THE BLUE STATE EXODUS - AND POTENTIAL SOLUTIONS:

2a) Breakthrough Institite, "Ezra Klein Explains Supply Side Progressivism" (video - 5:26 min)
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=CXSjLFgn5ns

2b) Lex Fridman w/ Ezra Klein,"The reality of Bernie's healthcare plan [without supply-side reforms]" (video - 7:09 min)
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Twc8LPDuFXk

• Noah Smith, "Blue states don't build. Red states do: A timely repost, with some updates."
  https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/blue-states-dont-build-red-states
• Steven Teles, Samuel Hammond & Daniel Takash, "Cost Disease Socialism: How Subsidizing Costs While Restricting Supply Drives America’s Fiscal Imbalance"
  https://www.niskanencenter.org/cost-disease-socialism-how-subsidizing-costs-while-restricting-supply-drives-americas-fiscal-imbalance/
• Steven Malanga, "The Real Problem with the Blue-State Model: It’s not just high taxes; it’s lousy services, too." - https://www.city-journal.org/article/the-real-problem-with-the-blue-state-model
• Johnny Harris & Binyamin Appelbaum, "Blue States, You’re the Problem
  Why do states with Democratic majorities fail to live up to their values?"
  https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/09/opinion/democrats-blue-states-legislation.html
• Gary Belkin, "“New York Times, You’re the Problem” On This One"
  https://medium.com/@mentalhealthglobal/new-york-times-youre-the-problem-528899734002
• Jeffrey Sonnenfeld & Stephen Henriques, "What Republicans Don’t Want To Say: Blue States Are the Ones Bailing Out Red States"
  https://time.com/7222411/blue-states-are-bailing-out-red-states/

III. OBJECTIONS TO "ABUNDANCE LIBERALISM" FROM THE LIBERTARIAN RIGHT & PROGRESSIVE LEFT - AND IF/HOW IT WILL FUNCTION IN THE TRUMP 2.0 ERA:

3a) Virginia Postrel, "Who decides the future? Technocrats vs. Innovators
" (video - 5:56 min)
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=SpW3-5IG2sk

3b) Sam Seder & Emma Vigeland, "Neoliberals Struggle Defending 'Abundance' Gambit" (video - 23:49 min, listen to 15:00)
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=cpjqbMLzCrM

• Zephyr Teachout, "An Abundance of Ambiguity: Ezra Klein and Derek Thompson argue that a world of plenty awaits us if we reform zoning and environmental laws and everyone moves to San Francisco. But that can’t be the whole plan, right?" https://washingtonmonthly.com/2025/03/23/an-abundance-of-ambiguity/
• Eric Levitz, "A new book suggests a path forward for Democrats. The left hates it."
  https://www.vox.com/politics/405063/ezra-klein-thompson-abundance-book-criticism
• Jon D. Michaels & David L. Noll, "Blue State Exodus?"
  https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4619683
• Josh Barro, "'Abundance' Liberals Have a Carbon Problem: The abundance movement is premised on cheap energy, but its advocates support decarbonization policies that would make energy, and the aspirational suburban lifestyle, more expensive." https://www.joshbarro.com/p/abundance-liberals-have-a-carbon
• Virginia Postrel, "Lawn-Sign Liberalism vs. Supply-Side Progressivism: 'Supply-side progressives' like Ezra Klein and Derek Thompson are ultimately technocrats, not libertarians. But they recognize that more is better than less and that a good society is not zero-sum."
  https://reason.com/2025/03/18/lawn-sign-liberalism-vs-supply-side-progressivism/
• Ruy Teixeira, "‘Abundance’ Is a Winning Message. But Can Democrats Embrace It?"
  https://www.thefp.com/p/can-democrats-embrace-abundance
• Robert Saladin & Steven Teles, "The Rise of the Abundance Faction: By working within a party, the new supply-siders can boost their cause — and pull us away from left-right polarization."
  https://www.niskanencenter.org/the-rise-of-the-abundance-faction/
• James Pethokoukis, "Republicans should welcome Democrats’ turn to ‘abundance’: An emerging coalition of pro-growth conservatives and supply-side liberals could tackle major problems together."
  https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2025/03/26/abundance-conservatives-klein-thompson-pethokoukis/

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