Bi-Weekly Discussion - How Is Party Switching Changing Our Politics?

Hosted by Brian B.

Philadelphia Political Agnostics

Details

This is going to be an online meetup using Zoom. If you've never used Zoom before, don't worry — it's easy to use and free to join.

Click on the link above at the scheduled date/time to log in...

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HOW IS PARTY SWITCHING CHANGING OUR POLITICS?

INTRODUCTION:

In this meetup, we'll discuss how party switching is affecting our political system and the broader political atmosphere in the United States over the last decade or so.

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RELEVANT MATERIALS FROM PAST MEETUPS:

In Nov. 2022, we had a meetup entitled "Understanding the Great Realignment" and the 4th section dealt with the possibility that Trumpism" and the "Great Awokening" are realigning the two major parties, leading to a Republican Party with a mix of conservatives & populists and Democrats with a mix of liberals & libertarians, as Jennifer Victor predicted in a Vox article in 2016 entitled "The clockwork rise of Donald Trump and reorganization of American parties". We also discuss Michael Lind's 2014 article on "The Coming Realignment" predicting that the GOP will become more driven by a working-class/middle class coalition in "Posturbia" (suburbs, exurbs & rural areas), whereas the Democratic Party will be based around an multiracial coalition composed of a college-educated elite and lower-wage service workers in "Densitaria" (high-density downtowns of major cities).

Back in Jun. 2024, we had a meetup entitled "Which Party's Coalition Will Crack First?" where we explored how the current party coalitions might fracture, focusing on Democrats' struggles with young people and black & Hispanic voters (particularly men), and Republicans' struggles with major corporations and suburban middle-class whites (particularly women). The "Dem Crackup" scenario I outlined in the outline's Introduction section arguably describes the 2024 election: "A backlash against 'wokeness' will help the GOP win back the business conservatives while also attracting more working class voters, leading to major losses for the Democrats & a discrediting of the Democratic establishment. Ironically, this might give the Bernie-style populists a second shot at taking over the Democratic party, as they aim to win back the working class with economic reforms instead of identity politics."

Back in February, we had a meetup entitled "Elites & Counter-Elites". In the 3rd section, we discussed the growing conflict between journalists at legacy print & TV media outlets with declining viewership and "new media elites" like podcasters, social media influencers, and independent journalists at online outlets like Spotify & Substack. In particular, we talked about prominent liberal journalists defecting to Substack in 2020 (e.g. Glenn Greenwald, Matt Taibbi, Bari Weiss, Matt Yglesias, Jesse Singal), as well as the reasons for the shifting political loyalties of controversial comedians like Joe Rogan, Bill Maher, Dave Chappelle, Jerry Seinfeld, Russell Brand, Tim Dillon, Bill Burr, and Jimmy Dore. In the 4th section, we looked at the role of Silicon Valley as an alternative power center vis-a-vis New York & DC that attracts a different sort of elite class, as well as the recent rightward shift of some tech moguls like Elon Musk, Mark Zuckerberg, Jeff Bezos, Marc Andreessen, Davis Sacks, and Brian Armstrong.

Back in May, we had a meetup entitled "Can 'Abundance Liberalism' Save the Dems?" We discussed the "blue stats exodus" due to high costs of living that have led 13 million people to migrate to red states, which could hurt the Democrats after the 2030 census if they lose seats in the house and presidential electors. We then discussed Ezra Klein & Derek Thompson's new book Abundance (2025) that promotes increasing the supply of essential goods & services (e.g. housing, healthy food, clean energy & transportation, broadband internet access, healthcare, education, childcare) to make them more abundant & affordable in order to achieve progressive outcomes like reducing poverty and creating more economic opportunities. We also looked at critiques of abundance liberalism from both the libertarian right and the progressive left, and whether - whatever its merits - abundance liberalism has "legs", i.e. can it gain enough electoral support in blue states to achieve some of its proposed reforms, or will it inevitably be crushed by the left-wing populists leading the anti-Trump resistance.

Back in August, we had a meetup entitled "The Return of the 'Socialist Moment' for Dems?" We discussed the Democrats' current low-favorability rating and reckoning after the 2024 election loss, and whether this indicates a desire for the party to become more moderate or more radical. We discussed the popularity of Bernie Sanders & AOC's "Fight Oligarchy" tour and Zohran Mamdani's surprise win in the NYC mayor's primary race, both of which may point to the rising fortune's of the Democrats' progressive/socialist wing. (Note: I wish I'd added a 4th section on the Democrats' struggles in their outreach to young men and their attempt to find their left-wing analogue for Joe Rogan in podcasters like Hasan Piker.)

DIRECTIONS ON HOW TO PREPARE FOR OUR DISCUSSION:

The videos & articles you see linked below are intended to give you a basic overview of some of the theories about why both voters & politicians are switching their party affiliation and how this is affecting our politics. As usual, I certainly don't expect you to read all the articles prior to attending our discussion. The easiest way to prepare for our discussion is to just watch the numbered videos linked under each section - the videos come to about 58 minutes total. The articles marked with asterisks are just there to supply additional details. You can browse and look at whichever ones you want, but don't worry - we'll cover the stuff you missed in our discussion.

In terms of the discussion format, my general idea is that we'll address the topics in the order presented here. I've listed some questions under each section to stimulate discussion. We'll do our best to address most of them, as well as whatever other questions our members raise. I figure we'll spend about 30 minutes on each section.

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I. WHICH VOTERS HAVE LEFT THE DEMOCRATS OVER THE LAST DECADE & WHY? WHERE ARE THEY GOING?

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1a) CBN News, "The 'Great Realignment:' Democrats Leave Party in Droves, and What It Could Mean for GOP in November [2022]" (video - 4:40 min)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-m1esKcOTQ8

1b) Young Turks, "Millions FLEE Democratic Party [in 2024] — Here’s Why" (video - 9:38 min)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cPYDGLdWXZw

Robert Griffin, "Party Hoppers: Understanding Voters Who Switched Partisan Affiliation [in 2011-2016]"
https://www.voterstudygroup.org/publication/party-hoppers
Jeff Stein, "The Bernie voters who defected to Trump, explained by a political scientist" (Vox)
https://archive.ph/kgKOi
Steve Peoples, "More than 1 million voters switch to GOP [in 2022], raising alarm for Democrats"
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/more-than-1-million-voters-switch-to-gop-raising-alarm-for-democrats
Grace Turke-Martinez, "Party Switcher Data Doesn't Lie, But It's Easy To Misinterpret: Alarm & Optimism in Key States [in 2022]"
https://themessinagroup.com/alarm-optimism-in-key-states-for-party-switchers/
Pew Research, "Changing Partisan Coalitions in a Politically Divided Nation: Party identification among registered voters, 1994-2023"
https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2024/04/09/changing-partisan-coalitions-in-a-politically-divided-nation/
Matt Yglesias, "The crank realignment is bad for everyone: A stupid party [on the right] + a bunch of biased institutions [on the left] degrades epistemics across the board"
https://www.slowboring.com/p/the-crank-realignment-is-bad-for
Ross Douthat, "The ‘Crank Realignment’ and the Paranoid Center"
https://archive.ph/GqJTm
John MacGhlionn, "Why men are leaving the left — and not coming back"
https://thehill.com/opinion/campaign/5561387-democratic-party-losing-men/
Matthew Yglesias, "When people don’t vote, Democrats win: Everyone needs to learn the new politics of turnout"
https://www.slowboring.com/p/when-people-dont-vote-democrats-win
Adam Bonita, et al., "Did Non-Voters Really Flip Republican in 2024? The Evidence Says No."
https://data4democracy.substack.com/p/did-non-voters-really-flip-republican
Amie Parnes, "Democrats alarmed over new data showing voters fleeing to GOP [in 2025]"
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/5462604-voter-registration-shift-democrats/

II. WHICH POLITICIANS HAVE LEFT THE DEMOCRATS OVER THE LAST DECADE & WHY? WHERE ARE THEY GOING?

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2a) The Hill w/ Ross Barkan, "How Did Democrats LOSE People Like RFK Jr., Tulsi Gabbard?" (video - 12:20 min)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AkvbGEOhEDY

2b) Kara Swisher w/ Joe Manchin, "Joe Manchin on why Democrats lost the working class, Trump, and polarization" (video - 53:50 min, start at 48:10)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PlzhnOPFimk&t=48m10s

Eric Garcia, "Why Manchin remains in the Democratic Party [in 2022] but Sinema doesn’t: Sinema joined the Democratic Party to advance her career. Manchin’s roots in the Democratic Party run far deeper"
https://www.the-independent.com/voices/joe-manchin-kyrsten-sinema-senate-republicans-defection-b2243473.html
Liz Frampton, "Trading places: More lawmakers are swapping political parties: Five state lawmakers traded in their Democratic credentials for the GOP this session [in 2023]."
https://www.politico.com/news/2023/08/09/party-flippers-democrats-becoming-republicans-00110334
Nicole Narea, "Why these Democrats are defecting to the GOP [in 2023]: Four Democratic lawmakers in West Virginia, Louisiana, and North Carolina switched parties recently. Should Democrats worry?"
https://www.vox.com/politics/2023/4/11/23679162/louisiana-north-carolina-cotham-thompson-lacombe
Ross Barkan, "How Democrats Lost the Dissident Vote: The Bad News for Democrats on RFK Jr. and Tulsi Gabbard" (Politico)
https://archive.ph/pYleP
Mandy Taheri, "Full List of Democratic Leaders Who’ve Left the Party Since 2024 Election"
https://www.newsweek.com/full-list-democratic-leaders-left-party-since-2024-election-2081420
Eli Yokley, "Fetterman’s Approach to Politics Is Working in Pennsylvania: The Democratic senator has broadened his coalition while angering progressives"
https://pro.morningconsult.com/analysis/john-fetterman-republican-approval-rating

III. WHICH VOTERS HAVE LEFT THE REPUBLICANS OVER THE LAST DECADE & WHY? WHERE ARE THEY GOING?

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3a) Young Turks, "Voters Leaving The Republican Party En Masse [after Jan. 6]" (video - 7:10 min)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=drBxCk0wtmk

3b) MSNBC w/ Rich Logis, "'There is going to be a cannibalization of itself': Former Trump supporter on MAGA breakdown [amid Epstein files debacle]" (video - 9:57 min)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=86tcoDjJWbk

Charlotte Alter, "Nearly a Quarter of GOP Millennials Have Defected from the Party of Trump [in 2017], Study Says"
https://time.com/4786694/donald-trump-republican-party-switch-poll/
David de la Fuente, "Romney-Clinton Voters Can’t Deliver a Democratic Majority [in 2018]"
https://www.thirdway.org/memo/romney-clinton-voters-cant-deliver-a-democratic-majority
Geoffrey Kelley, et al., "Why The Suburbs Have Shifted Blue [by 2020]"
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-the-suburbs-have-shifted-blue/
Philip Bump & Lenny Bronner, "Some Republicans are switching parties [after Capitol riot on Jan. 6th, 2021] — but not many: We should perhaps not assume the collapse of the institutional GOP just yet"
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2021/01/27/some-republicans-are-switching-parties-but-not-many/
CBS News, "Troubling sign for Democrats: "Party switchers trending strongly Republican, especially in suburbs [in 2022]"
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/party-switchers-strongly-republican-especially-suburbs-troubling-democrats/
Nate Silver, "Is Epstein the new Russiagate? Political types are obsessed with the story. But that doesn't mean it's penetrated into the broader public."
https://www.natesilver.net/p/is-epstein-the-new-russiagate
Aaron Blake, "How polls show Republicans shifted away from caring so much about Jeffrey Epstein"
https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/polls-show-republicans-shifted-away-120046742.html
Laura Esposito, "MAHA Moms Turn Against Trump After Stunning Betrayal [on Glyphosate]"
https://www.thedailybeast.com/maha-moms-turn-against-donald-trump-after-stunning-betrayal/
Freddy Gray, "Operation Epic Fury is already tearing the MAGA movement apart"
https://archive.ph/xji5J

III. WHICH POLITICIANS HAVE LEFT THE REPUBLICANS OVER THE LAST DECADE & WHY? WHERE ARE THEY GOING?

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4a) CNN w/ John Avlon, "This is why many Republicans are leaving the House [in 2019]" (video - 3:14 min)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nmlsPw_ExJY

4b) Chris Cilia, "'A Tinder Box': Inside the Total Collapse of House Republican Morale [in 2025]" (video - 7:10 min.)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NRmbJXeOyXg

Peter Weber, "4 in 10 House Republicans in office when Trump was inaugurated have now quit or lost their seats [by Sept. 2019]"
https://theweek.com/speedreads/866990/4-10-house-republicans-office-when-trump-inaugurated-have-now-quit-lost-seats
Meredith McGraw & Daniel Lippman, "They resigned in protest over Jan. 6 — then never went after Trump again: The administration officials who defected from the administration over the riots have almost all receded from public view even as Trump’s stayed put." (Politico)
https://archive.ph/mOaVn
David Siders, "Anti-Trumpers are done with the GOP. Where do they go now? Scores of Republicans are bolting the party in the wake of the Jan. 6 Capitol riot. But they’re discovering there’s really no place to go." (Politico)
https://archive.ph/FUvxz
Evan Gottesman, "Understanding Partisan Defectors: Republicans Defect, But Don't Necessarily Become Democrats"
https://rdi.org/articles/understanding-partisan-defectors/
Time Staff, "The Republicans Crossing Party Lines and Voting for Harris Over Trump [in 2024]"
https://time.com/7160907/republicans-crossing-party-lines-voting-kamala-harris-over-donald-trump/
Nathaniel Rakich & Katie Marriner, "The GOP is Trump's party now [by Feb. 2025]: Most Republicans in Congress were elected in the Trump era."
https://abcnews.go.com/538/gop-trumps-party-now/story?id=118574467
Kate Santaliz & Hans Nichols, "Mike Johnson's red alert on members quitting Congress"
https://www.axios.com/2025/12/02/congress-retirements-mike-johnson-republicans

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Philadelphia Political Agnostics

Bi-Weekly Discussion - How Is Party Switching Changing Our Politics?

Philadelphia Political Agnostics

Details

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