Bi-Weekly Discussion - Understanding the US-Iran War

Hosted by Brian B.

Philadelphia Political Agnostics

Details

This is going to be an online meetup using Zoom. If you've never used Zoom before, don't worry — it's easy to use and free to join.

Click on the link above at the scheduled date/time to log in...

***

UNDERSTANDING THE US-IRAN WAR: COULD & SHOULD IT HAVE BEEN AVOIDED & WHAT WILL PROBABLY HAPPEN NOW?

INTRODUCTION:

In our past discussion on March 1st entitled "Limits on Presidential War Powers", we discussed whether President Trump's decision to attack Iran on Feb. 28 was a violation of the U.S. Constitutional law or international law, as well as how it ties in with the components of "just war theory" (just cause, proper authority, right intention, last resort, reasonable chance of success, proportionality).
and the sometimes conflicting norms about respecting a state's sovereignty versus a responsibility to protect that state's citizens. In this discussion, we'll shift to adopting a more pragmatic approach about how various methods of dealing with the threats posed by Iran figure into U.S. national interest.

I'd considered including a section on the history of relations between the US & Iran from the 1953 CIA-engineered coup that returned the Shah to power, through the 1979 Islamic revolution and Iran-Iraq War (1980-88), up to the Iraq War (2003-11) and the rise & fall of ISIS (2013-2017) that gave way to the ongoing low-intensity Iraqi insurgency, but instead I'd merely like to ask our members to review the Wikipedia summary to glean the basics.

In the first section, we'll revisit the debates over the Obama administration's negotiations with Iran that started with confrontation & coercion but gave way to a rapprochement which led to the nuclear deal, a.k.a. the "Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action" (JCPOA), which was concluded in July 2015. The deal was abandoned by the Trump administration in May 2018, but we'll look at the Biden administration's attempts to return to the deal which failed by April 2022, as well the debate over whether unfreezing some of Iran's assets enabled them to increase funding to proxy forces like Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis.

In the second section, we'll look back at how Trump showed a more confrontational yet still cautious approach towards Iran in his first term, i.e. pulling out of the nuclear deal in May 2018 & assassinating Iran's Quds Force leader Gen. Qasem Soleimani in Jan. 2020 but rejecting John Bolton's push for war with Iran in 2019. This stance was also reflected in the first year of Trump's second term, with his decision to launch a limited strike on Iran's nuclear facilities and then promptly declare a ceasefire to end the "Twelve Days War" (June 13-24, 2025).

In the third section, we'll look at possible war scenarios and implications for the global balance of power (particularly with regard to Russia & China) after the Trump administration's decision to partner with Israel and launch a much more sustained attack on Iran beginning on Feb. 28, 2026 - codenamed "Operation Epic Fury" by the U.S. and "Operation Roaring Lion" by Israel.

RELEVANT MATERIAL FROM PAST MEETUPS:

In Oct. 2021, we had a meetup entitled "Can We Predict Geopolitical Conflict?" We looked at how to predict the onset of wars, WMD development & usage, military coups & popular revolts, as well as civil wars & genocide. We tried to apply some of Phil Tetlock's tips for geopolitical forecasting, like: (1) break seemingly intractable problems into tractable sub-problems, using Fermi estimates, (2) strike the right balance between "inside" (event-specific) and "outside" (reference class) views, (3) strike the right balance between under- and overreacting to new evidence, by using Bayesian-style updating, and (4) look for the clashing causal forces at work in each problem, and consider multiple theories & models.

We had a meetup in Sept. 2022 entitled "Hard Lessons from the War on Terror" where discussed what Americans should learn from the failed attempts at counter-insurgency & nation-building in Iraq & Afghanistan for the future of our Middle East policy, as well as the "New Cold War" with Russia & China.

In Oct. 2023, we had a meetup entitled "Should the U.S. Support Israel?" where we covered the history of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and debates over: (1) whether the creation of Israel was an act of Jewish self-determination or colonialism, (2) whether Israel practices war crimes & genocide or merely acts in self-defense, (3) the best solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, (4) whether the alliance with Israel helps or hurts U.S. national interest.

Back in July 2025, we had a meetup entitled "The Iran-Israel Conflict" that examined: (1) the history of the Iran-Israel proxy conflict, (2) the implications of the "Twelve Day War" for Iran's nuclear program, (3) the political situations in Israel and Iran after the Twelve Day War, and (4) the U.S. political rifts over U.S. intervention in the Twelve Day War.

We've also looked at a couple events by the Commonwealth Club of California that hosted the Iranian-American political scientist Vali Nasr to discuss his book Iran's Grand Strategy: A Political History shortly after the Twelve Day War and the political scientist Dalia Dassa Kaye, author of Enduring Hostility: The Making of America's Iran Policy (2025), to discuss what's behind the protests in Iran in Jan. 2026.

DIRECTIONS ON HOW TO PREPARE FOR OUR DISCUSSION:

The videos & articles you see linked below are intended to give you a basic overview of some of the major debates over the ongoing US/Israel-Iran war. As usual, I certainly don't expect you to read all the articles prior to attending our discussion. The easiest way to prepare for our discussion is to just watch the numbered videos linked under each section - the videos come to about 78 minutes total. The articles marked with asterisks are just there to supply additional details. You can browse and look at whichever ones you want, but don't worry - we'll cover the stuff you missed in our discussion.

In terms of the discussion format, my general idea is that we'll address the topics in the order presented here. I've listed some questions under each section to stimulate discussion. We'll do our best to address most of them, as well as whatever other questions our members raise. I figure we'll spend about 40 minutes on each section.

***

I. UNDERSTANDING THE SHORT-LIVED IRAN NUCLEAR DEAL (2015-2018) & WHETHER DETENTE WOULD'VE WORKED:

SECTION 1, QUESTION 1: XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
SECTION 1, QUESTION 2: XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
SECTION 1, QUESTION 3: XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
SECTION 1, QUESTION 4: XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
SECTION 1, QUESTION 5: XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

1a) Vox, "How the Iran nuclear deal works, explained in 3 minutes" (video - 3:05 min)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oqvghou5m3U

1b) WSJ, "Obama's Dangerous Bargain with Iran" (video - 4:04 min)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d-JyQEK-fVY

1c) The National Desk, "$6 billion to Iran? Biden-era deal faces intense backlash" (video - 4:35 min)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H83s8PtBTo4

TRIP Snap Polls V & VII: "IR Scholars React to Proposed Nuclear Agreement with Iran" (Apr. & Sept. 2015)
https://trip.wm.edu/research/snap-polls/snap-poll-5/Snap_Poll_5_topline.pdf
https://trip.wm.edu/research/snap-polls/snap-poll-7/Snap_poll_7.pdf
Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation, "Iran Nuclear Deal: Correcting Misconceptions"
https://armscontrolcenter.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/Fact-check-iran-deal-1.pdf
Hudson Institute, "Seven Myths about the Iran Nuclear Deal"
https://www.hudson.org/national-security-defense/seven-myths-about-the-iran-nuclear-deal
Jeff Seldin, "Indications Iran Doubling Down on Use of Proxy Forces [in 2017]"
https://www.voanews.com/a/indications-iran-doubling-down-on-use-of-proxy-forces/3878748.html
Saran Hale Spencer, "Posts Misrepresent [Biden Administration's] Unfreezing of $16 Billion in Iranian Funds"
https://www.factcheck.org/2024/05/posts-misrepresent-unfreezing-of-16-billion-in-iranian-funds/
Sina Toosi, "Biden had a chance to undo Trump's mistakes. He dropped the ball."
https://responsiblestatecraft.org/iran-nuclear-deal-2668189539/

II. UNDERSTANDING TRUMP'S CONFRONTATIONAL BUT RESTRAINED APPROACH TO IRAN IN HIS FIRST TERM & TWELVE-DAY WAR:

SECTION 2, QUESTION 1: XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
SECTION 2, QUESTION 2: XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
SECTION 2, QUESTION 3: XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
SECTION 2, QUESTION 4: XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
SECTION 2, QUESTION 5: XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

2a) Vox, "Trump quits Iran nuclear deal, undoing years of diplomacy" (video - 5:00 min)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U-mwFoev3OQ

2b) ABC News: If You're Listening, "Trump thinks he can switch off the Iran War" (video - 24:07 min)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=irsF1W3StWk

TRIP Snap Poll 23 Report: "The Iran-Israel Conflict and Potential U.S. Involvement" (June 18-22, 2025)
https://trip.wm.edu/research/snap-polls/snap-poll-23/Snap-Poll-23-Report.pdf
ARTICLE 2 - XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Alice Friend, et al., "Why did the Pentagon ever give Trump the option of killing Soleimani?"
https://www.brookings.edu/articles/why-did-the-pentagon-ever-give-trump-the-option-of-killing-soleimani/
ARTICLE 4 - XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

III. MOST LIKELY WAR SCENARIOS IN IRAN & IMPLICATIONS FOR THE GLOBAL BALANCE OF POWER:

SECTION 4, QUESTION 1: XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
SECTION 4, QUESTION 2: XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
SECTION 4, QUESTION 3: XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
SECTION 4, QUESTION 4: XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
SECTION 4, QUESTION 5: XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

3a) CNN w/ Fareed Zakaria, "US & Israel have separate agendas for Iran war" (video - 9:39 min)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mn-iB-hJz3s

3b) Hoover Institution w/ John Cochrane, Niall Ferguson, H.R. McMaster & "Gulf War III or Cold War II: Iran Truth and Consequences" (video - 32:02 min)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CzRMARM3nYg

TRIP Snap Poll 24: "The Iran War" (Feb. 2026)
https://trip.wm.edu/research/snap-polls/snap-poll-24/Snap-Poll-24-Report.pdf
ARTICLE 2 - XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
ARTICLE 3 - XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
ARTICLE 4 - XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Philadelphia Political Agnostics

Bi-Weekly Discussion - Understanding the US-Iran War

Philadelphia Political Agnostics

Details

Related topics

You may also like