Bi-Weekly Discussion - Takeaways from the Midterms

Hosted by Brian B.

Super Organizer

Philadelphia Political Agnostics

Details

This is going to be an online meetup using Zoom. If you've never used Zoom before, don't worry — it's easy to use and free to join.

Click on the link above at the scheduled date/time to log in...

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TAKEAWAYS FROM THE 2026 MIDTERMS:
WHAT CAUSED THE "BLUE WAVE" & WHAT EFFECTS WILL IT HAVE?

INTRODUCTION:

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RELEVANT MATERIAL FROM PAST MEETUPS:

In June 2024, we had a meetup entitled "Which Party's Coalition Will Crack First?" where we discussed (1) the growing gender divide among younger voters, (2) the rightward shift of some black & Latino men, (3) the growing split between the GOP & woke corporations, and (4) tensions between Trump's white working class base & the suburban, college-educated white voters (esp. women).

Back in Nov. 2024, we had a Post-Election Analysis that the mistakes and successes of the Harris and Trump campaigns, the shifts in public opinion & voting behavior of each coalition - most notably Trump's gains among black & Hispanic voters, and how the political landscape might evolve over the next 4 years now that "wokeness" was seemingly out of favor.

In Jan. 2025, we had a meetup entitled "Trump's Economic & Social Policies" where we tried to forecast the best-case & worst-case scenarios for Trump's tariffs & proposed trade deals, border enforcement & deportation policies, plans to cut the federal bureaucracy with DOGE, and the rollback of affirmative action & DEI policies.

In May 2025, we had a meetup entitled "Can 'Abundance Liberalism' Save the Dems?" where we discussed the factors behind the "blue state exodus" and its implications for the House & presidential electors after the 2030 census, Ezra Klein & Derek Thompson's diagnosis of problems like NIMBYism, "adversarial legalism" and "cost-disease socialism" that drive up the cost of living in blue states, and some objections to the "abundance agenda" from the libertarian right and progressive left - and the question of whether the "abundance" movement has enough public support to pass its reforms.

In Aug. 2025 we had a meetup entitled "The Return of the "Socialist Moment" for Dems?" where we talked about the reasons for the Democrats' low favorability rating after the 2024 election & the party's identity crisis, the potential impact of Bernie & AOC's "Fight Oligarchy" tour, and the implications of Zohran Mamdani's surprising win in the Democratic primary for the NYC mayorship.

In Oct. 2025, we had a meetup entitled "Is America Sliding Into Authoritarianism?" where we looked at 4 narratives about the trajectories of American politics under Trump 2.0 - i.e. "competitive authoritarianism" that would lock in GOP control, a "klepto-kakistocracy" that would lead to gridlock & lower state capacity, a "great realignment" of the major parties into technocrats vs populists, or a "conservative counter-revolution" that would partly reverse the left's "long march through the institutions".

In Dec. 2025 we had a meetup entitled "The Future of MAGA and the GOP" where we the way the GOP was being split by 3 debates: (1) H1B visas and high-skill immigration in general, (2) America's relationship with Israel and interventionist foreign policy in general, (3) the Epstein files and government transpareceny in general.

DIRECTIONS ON HOW TO PREPARE FOR OUR DISCUSSION:

The videos & articles you see linked below are intended to give you a basic overview of some of the major debates over the implications of the 2026 midterms. As usual, I certainly don't expect you to read all the articles prior to attending our discussion. The easiest way to prepare for our discussion is to just watch the numbered videos linked under each section - the videos come to about XX minutes total. The articles marked with asterisks are just there to supply additional details. You can browse and look at whichever ones you want, but don't worry - we'll cover the stuff you missed in our discussion.

In terms of the discussion format, my general idea is that we'll address the topics in the order presented here. I've listed some questions under each section to stimulate discussion. We'll do our best to address most of them, as well as whatever other questions our members raise. I figure we'll spend about 30 minutes on each section.

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I. RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN MIDTERMS & PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS:

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1a) Elphu Teacher, "The Midterm Curse: Why the President's Party Almost Always Loses." (video - 12:14 min)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=58HTPcYzCeI

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