Bi-Weekly Discussion - Are Coastal Elites Living in a "Bubble"?


Details
We're currently hosting our discussions at Café Walnut, near the corner of 7th & Walnut in Olde City, just across the street from Washington Square Park. The cafe's entrance is below street level down some stairs, which can be confusing if it's your first time. Our group meets in the large room upstairs.
Since we're using the cafe's space, they ask that each person attending the meetup at least purchase a drink or snack. Please don't bring any food or drinks from outside. If you're hungry enough to eat a meal, they have more substantial fare such as salads, soups & sandwiches which are pretty good and their prices are reasonable.
The cafe is fairly easy to get to if you're using public transit. With SEPTA, take the Market-Frankford Line & get off at the 5th Street Station (corner of 5th & Market), and walk 2 blocks south on 5th and then turn right on Walnut Street and walk 2 blocks west. With PATCO, just get off at the 9th-10th & Locust stop and walk 3 blocks east & 1 block north. For those who are driving, parking in the neighborhood can be tough to find. If you can't find a spot on the street, I'd suggest parking in the Washington Square parking deck at 249 S 6th Street which is just a half block away.
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ARE COASTAL ELITES LIVING IN A "BUBBLE"? ANALYZING CRITIQUES OF ELITE SEGREGATION & ECHO CHAMBERS
INTRODUCTION:
In our last discussion on the "Liberal International Order", I mentioned there was a Munk debate on the subject that featured the British historian Niall Ferguson & Indian-American political scientist Fareed Zakaria. Ferguson argued that Zakaria couldn't see free trade's negative effects on Middle America because he lived in a "bubble" along with other "coastal elites". Then last week, both David Brooks & Adam Gopnick came to the Free Library of Philadelphia to promote their new books, and I noticed some negative reviews that referred to them as out-of-touch "coastal elites" who couldn't understand that our current political problems demand something more than "bland centrism".
So is it true that "coastal elites" are living in a "bubble" that separates them from their fellow Amercans? And if so, what effects does this have on American politics?
In the first half of this discussion, we'll look at arguments about the effects of the segregation of the broad class of "coastal elites" - i.e. the upper-middle & upper classes of the Northeast & West Coast - from both the poorer residents in their cities and the rural & suburban Americans of "Middle America". In Part 1, we'll look at Bill Bishop's "Big Sort" theory and Richard Florida's concept of a "New Urban Crisis" brought on by urban gentrification. Then in Part 2, we'll look at how the economist Tyler Cowen & the sociologist Charles Murray think the residential & cultural segregation of urban elites has negative social effects.
In the second half, we'll look at arguments related to an alleged ideological bubble around the coastal elites' narrow class of pundits, journalists & academics that creates blind spots in their political views. In Part 3, we'll review Jack Shafer's analysis of the "liberal media bubble" and Sam Abrams work on the "blue shift" in academia over the last 30 years. Then in Part 4, we'll look at critiques of the center-right & center-left wings of the pundit class from Paul Krugman & Nicholas Nassim Taleb, both of whom allege that their opponents are stuck in ideological "eecho chambers".
RELEVANT MATERIAL FROM PAST MEETUPS:
Back in August of 2016, we had a meetup entitled "Globalism vs Nationalism" where we discussed essays by Michael Lind & Jonathan Haidt that suggested American politics was becoming increasingly divided into urban elites that favored globalization, a neoliberal welfare state & secular-humanist values and ex-urban & rural whites that favored traditional Christian values, nationalism, economic protectionism & immigration restriction:
https://www.meetup.com/Philadelphia-Political-Agnostics/events/pdjntlyvlbbc/
In February of 2018, we had a meetup entitled "Political Science & Political Myths" and in Part 4 of the discussion outline we addressed the central thesis of historian Thomas Frank's 2004 book What's The Matter with Kansas: How Conservatives Won The Heart of America. Frank claimed that the GOP used socially conservative rhetoric to get the white working class to vote against their own economic self-interest, whereas political scientists like Larry Bartels & Andrew Gelman argued that voter data shows that's not true & that (outside the South) poor whites tend to vote for Democrats and it's mostly the upper class that votes disproportionately for the GOP. However, in the wake of the 2016 election, Gelman noted that income had a very low correlation with vote preference and Democrats did much better with the upper-middle & uppers classes, suggesting that political differences between red & blue states are now explained less by differences in individuals’ incomes than by broader cultural forces.
https://www.meetup.com/Philadelphia-Political-Agnostics/events/xvbrznyxdbxb/
Back in June of 2018, we had a meetup entitled "Do Colleges Need Academic Freedom & Political Diversity?" and we discussed the argument that as college professors become more left-leaning there's a lack on ideological diversity - esp. in the humanities & social sciences - that has slowly shifted the university's purpose from unbiased education to liberal indoctrination. While there's good evidence to support the leftward shift of academics, the "indoctrination" hypothesis appears to be less likely because it's much harder for teachers to change students' pre-existing political alignment than most people think:
https://www.meetup.com/Philadelphia-Political-Agnostics/events/xvbrznyxkbdc/
In a meetup in July of 2018 entitled "Press Freedom, News Quality & News Diversity" we discussed media bias & the echo chamber effect as well as the 3 factors listed in the title. The news media has become increasingly consolidated & journalists have become more left-leaning in recent decades, and press freedom has declined under both Obama & Trump. However, on the bright side, studies of media bias suggest it probably doesn't shift audience's pre-existing political views very much (although it probably reinforces them), and the greater accessibility of online information seems to have partly ameliorated the "echo chamber" effect.
https://www.meetup.com/Philadelphia-Political-Agnostics/events/xvbrznyxjbnb/
Back in December of 2017, the Skeptics had a meetup entitled "The War on Science & Assymetric Irrationality". They looked at arguments that conservatives or liberals are more prone to denying science, endorsing conspiracy theory, voting against their own self-interest, and exhibiting negative psychological traits. According to prominent social psychologists like Jonathan Haidt, Daniel Kahan & Keith Stanovich, there's no clear evidence that one side of the political spectrum is inherently more irrational than the other on every issue:
https://www.meetup.com/Philly-Skeptics/events/241726423/
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DIRECTIONS ON HOW TO PREPARE FOR OUR DISCUSSION:
The videos & articles you see linked below are intended to give you a basic overview of some of the major debates over whether or not "coastal elites" are segregated geographically & ideologically from the rest of the population.
As usual, I certainly don't expect you to read all the articles & watch all the videos prior to attending our discussion. The easiest way to prepare for our discussion is to just watch the numbered videos linked under each section - the videos come to about about 42 minutes total. In the 4th section, I couldn't find video clips that summarize the topic, so I've linked 2 short articles that shouldn't take more than 10 minutes to read.
The articles marked with asterisks are just there to supply additional details. You can browse and look at whichever ones you want, but don't worry - we'll cover the stuff you missed in our discussion.
In terms of the discussion format, my general idea is that we'll address the topics in the order presented here. I figure we'll spend about 30 minutes on each section. Under each section heading, I've listed some questions to stimulate discussion - we'll do our best to answer most of them.
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I. BILL BISHOP'S "BIG SORT" THEORY & RICHARD FLORIDA'S "NEW URBAN CRISIS" - GEOGRAPHIC SELF-SORTING & URBAN CLASS SEGREGATION:
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IS GEOGRAPHIC SELF-SORTING BY POLITICAL VIEWS THE MAJOR FORCE BEHIND THE INCREASE IN LANDSLIDE COUNTIES OVER THE LAST 40 YEARS? OR DID THE PARTY IDEOLOGIES REALIGN IN A WAY THAT SEPARATED RURAL & URBAN VOTERS WITHOUT MUCH MOVING REQUIRED?
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DO MOST AMERICANS NOW LIVE IN NEIGHBORHOODS OF POLITICALLY LIKE-MINDED PEOPLE? IF SO, DOES THAT MEAN THEIR VIEWS ARE REINFORCED BY DAILY INTERACTIONS, OR ARE WE TOO DISCONNECTED FOR PEER PRESSURE TO MATTER MUCH?
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COULD POLITICAL POLARIZATION BE REDUCED BY GETTING MORE TECH COMPANIES & UNIVERSITIES IN RED STATE CITIES, WHICH WOULD ATTRACT LIBERALS TO MOVE THERE? OR COULD THIS SORT OF "CARPET-BAGGING" BACKFIRE?
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IS THE INCREASING RACIAL & CLASS SEGREGATION IN CITIES THE INEVITABLE OUTCOME OF ATTRACTING THE HIGH-INCOME "CREATIVE CLASS", OR CAN INNOVATION BE UNCOUPLED FROM GENTRIFICATION?
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WAS THE SUBURBAN POPULISM THAT ELECTED ROB FORD MAYOR OF TORONTO A BACKLASH AGAINST GENTRIFICATION, AS RICHARD FLORIDA CONTENDS? IF SO, IS IT BECOMING A POLITICAL FORCE IN THE U.S.?
1a) The Village Square, "The Big Sort" (video - 8:49 min.)
https://youtu.be/OvzAUSVnIbo
1b) Richard Florida, "The New Urban Crisis" (video - 2:52 min.)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Khe0_6W00vk
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Greg Martin & Steven Webster, "The Real Culprit Behind Geographic Polarization: Research shows that partisans aren’t purposefully walling themselves off. There is no intentional 'big sort'.”
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2018/11/why-are-americans-so-geographically-polarized/575881/ -
Will Wilkinson, "A Tale of Two Moralities: Regional Inequality and Moral Polarization"
https://niskanencenter.org/blog/tale-two-moralities-part-one-regional-inequality-moral-polarization/ -
Richard Florida, "How Innovation Leads to Economic Segregation"
https://www.citylab.com/equity/2017/10/how-innovation-leads-to-economic-segregation/543759/ -
Steven Malanga, "The Curse of the Creative Class: Richard Florida’s theories are all the rage worldwide. Trouble is, they’re plain wrong."
https://www.city-journal.org/html/curse-creative-class-12491.html
II. TYLER COWEN'S "NEW ERA OF SEGREGATION" & CHARLES MURRAY'S "COMING APART" THEORY:
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DOES RESIDENTIAL SEGREGATION, ASSORTATIVE MATING & ONLINE FILTERING MAKE US MORE "COMPLACENT" AND LOWER THE RATE OF TECHNOLOGICAL & SOCIAL INNOVATION, AS TYLER COWN ARGUES?
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COULD THE "GREAT STAGNATION" THAT COWEN NOTES BE MORE THE RESULT OF AN INADEQUATE SOCIAL SAFEFY NET THAT MAKES RISK-TAKING TOO DANGEROUS, AS DAVID JOHNSON ARGUES? IF SO, ARE THERE HIGHER RATES OF INNOVATION IN DEVELOPED COUNTRIES WITH HIGHER TAXES & LARGER WELFARE STATES?
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DOES THE DATA SUPPORT CHARLES MURRAY'S THEORY THAT THE WHITE UPPER-MIDDLE CLASS & WHITE WORKING CLASS ARE DIVERGING IN INCOME, LIFE EXPECTANCY & CULTURAL NORMS?
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COULD THE ELITE SOMEHOW PERSUADE THE LOWER CLASS TO ADOPT BETTER CULTURAL NORMS, AS MURRAY SUGGESTS?
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DOES THE QUESTIONS IN COWEN & MURRAY'S QUIZZES ACTUALLY MEASURE "COMPLACENCY" OR "SNOBBISHNESS"? IF NOT, WHAT WOULD A BETTER QUIZ ASK?
2a) Tyler Cowen, "The New Era of Segregation" (video - 7:04 min.)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hNlA_Zz1_bM
2b) Charles Murray, "Are You a Snob? Take the Test" (video - 4:57 min.)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MKMbdfbpWvg
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Tyler Cowen, "How Complacent Are You? Take the Quiz!"
https://tylercowen.com/complacent-class-quiz/ -
David V. Johnson, "The Complacent Intellectual Class: Who needs more books from authors who can’t maintain even basic standards of rigor?"
https://thebaffler.com/latest/the-complacent-intellectual-class -
Charles Murray, "The return of the Bubble Quiz: The 100 zip codes with the thickest bubbles"
http://www.aei.org/publication/the-return-of-the-bubble-quiz-the-100-zip-codes-with-the-thickest-bubbles/ -
Ben Adler, "If you live in a city, this PBS quiz tells you you’re an elitist. Don’t believe it."
https://grist.org/cities/if-you-live-in-a-city-this-pbs-quiz-tells-you-youre-an-elitist-dont-believe-it/
III. THE "LIBERAL MEDIA BUBBLE" & THE "BLUE SHIFT" IN ACADEMIA:
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HAS THE CLUSTERING OF NEWS MEDIA OUTLETS IN MAJOR COASTAL CITIES (E.G. NYC, DC, LA) CREATED A "LIBERAL MEDIA BUBBLE" THAT LEADS TO INACCURATE COVERAGE OF CERTAIN ISSUES? IS THIS WHAT CAUSED SO MANY JOURNALISTS TO UNDERESTIMATE TRUMP'S CHANCES IN 2016?
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CAN "PARACHUTE JOURNALISM" HELP COASTAL NEWS OUTLETS UNDERSTAND THE "FLYOVER STATES", OR DO COASTAL JOURNALISTS MERELY BRING THEIR PREJUDICES WITH THEM?
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HAS THE LEFTWARD SHIFT IN THE POLITICAL VIEWS OF COLLEGE PROFESSORS OVER THE LAST 30 YEARS CREATED AN IDEOLOGICAL "PURITY SPIRAL", PARTICULARLY IN THE SOCIAL SCIENCES?
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IS THERE ANY EVIDENCE THE POLITICAL IMBALANCE IN SOCIAL SCIENCE FACULTY BAISES THEIR RESEARCH & LEADS TO STUDIES THAT DON'T REPLICATE?
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IF THERE'S A "LIBERAL BUBBLE" IN ACADEMIA, WHAT SHOULD COLLEGES DO TO "POP" IT: RECRUIT MORE RURAL STUDENTS, AFFIRMATIVE ACTION FOR CONSERVATIVE PROFS, HOST CROSS-PARTISAN DISCUSSIONS WITH CONSERVATIVE COLLEGES (E.G. UCHICAGO & EUREKA'S "BRIDGING THE DIVIDE" PROGRAM)?
3a) Michael Tracey @ TYT, “Does the media live in a bubble?” (Video - 13:52 min.)
https://youtu.be/QC9qdR_FPi4
3b) Tucker Carlson w/ Chris Sweeney, "How liberals are slowly killing colleges" (video - 4:04 min.)
https://youtu.be/xFtTJv6EPAU
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Jack Shafer & Tucker Doherty, "The Media Bubble Is Worse Than You Think: We crunched the data on where journalists work and how fast it’s changing. The results should worry you."
https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2017/04/25/media-bubble-real-journalism-jobs-east-coast-215048 -
Will Oremus, "The Media’s 'Bubble' Problem Is Really a Diversity Problem - And it runs much deeper than party or place."
https://slate.com/business/2017/04/the-medias-bubble-problem-is-really-a-diversity-problem.html -
Uri Harris, "Are the Social Sciences Undergoing a Purity Spiral?"
https://quillette.com/2017/07/06/social-sciences-undergoing-purity-spiral/ -
Diego Reinero et al., "Is the Political Slant of Psychology Research Related to Scientific Replicability?"
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/330935931_Is_the_Political_Slant_of_Psychology_Research_Related_to_Scientific_Replicability
IV. THE PROBLEM WITH PUNDITS: "VERY SERIOUS PEOPLE" (VSPs), "INTELLECTUALS YET IDIOTS" (IYIs) & "THOUGHT LEADERS"
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ARE CONSERVATIVE VSPs OFTEN WRONG BECAUSE THEY'RE CAUGHT IN A PARTISAN "ECHO CHAMBER" - A.K.A. "EPISTEMIC CLOSURE" - AS KRUGMAN ARGUES? OR DO VSPs DIVERGE FROM THE EXPERTS BECAUSE THEY REALIZE COMMON SENSE MORALITY MUST RULE POLITICS, AS TYLER COWEN ARGUES?
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WOULD NEWS CONSUMPTION BE A GOOD WAY TO MEASURE "EPISTEMIC CLOSURE"? HOW ABOUT AN "IDEOLOGICAL TURING TEST" TO SEE IF ONE CAN MIMIC THE OTHER SIDE?
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IS "DERPING" - I.E. KRUGMAN'S TERM FOR REPEATING THE SAME FALSE CLAIMS RATHER THAN UPDATING ONE'S PRIOR ASSUMPTIONS BASED ON NEW EVIDENCE - WORSE AMONG CONSERVATIVES? HOW ABOUT "CALVINBALL" - I.E. AD HOC THEORIZING TO KEEP ONE'S THEORIES FROM BEING FALSIFIED?
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IS TALEB RIGHT THAT PUNDITS & ACADEMICS ALIKE ARE OFTEN BLINDSIDED BY "BLACK SWAN" EVENTS BECAUSE THEY OVERLOOK "KURTOSIS RISK" & ASSUME EVENTS WILL HAVE A BELL CURVE DISTRIBUTION?
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IS TALEB RIGHT THAT IYIs TEND TO OVER-VALUE NOVELTY? SHOULD WE FOLLOW TALEB'S "LINDY LAW" & PREFER OLDER THINGS BECAUSE THEY'RE "ANTI-FRAGILE" & LESS PRONE TO CATASTROPHIC FAILURE?
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ARE KRUGMAN & TALEB RIGHT THAT THE PROBLEM WITH PUNDITS IS THEY HAVE NO "SKIN IN THE GAME" & DON'T PAY ANY PENALTY FOR FALSE PREDICTIONS? COULD WE FIX THIS WITH PREDICTION MARKETS, AS ROBIN HANSON SUGGESTS?
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HAVE BLOGS & TED TALKS IMPROVED THE PUBLIC SPHERE BY POPPING THE MSM BUBBLE? OR HAVE THEY LED TO AN OVERABUNDANCE OF "THOUGHT LEADERS" (BIG IDEA SALESMEN) RELATIVE TO "PUBLIC INTELLECTUALS" (NUANCED CRITICS), AS DAN DREZNER ARGUES?
4a) Rationalwiki, "Very Serious People"
https://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Very_Serious_People
4b) Nicholas Nassim Taleb, "The Intellectual Yet Idiot"
https://medium.com/incerto/the-intellectual-yet-idiot-13211e2d0577
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Tyler Cowen, "What makes the Very Serious People so very serious?"
https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2015/07/what-makes-the-very-serious-people-so-very-serious.html -
Henry Farrell, "A Brief Theory of Very Serious People"
http://crookedtimber.org/2015/07/22/a-brief-theory-of-very-serious-people/ -
Brendan Nyhan, "Measuring Epistemic Closure"
https://www.brendan-nyhan.com/blog/2010/04/measuring-epistemic-closure.html -
Tyler Durden, "'There's A Global Riot Against Psuedo-Experts' Nassim Taleb Exclaims"
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-02-07/not-fascism-nassim-taleb-warns-theres-global-riot-against-psuedo-experts -
Jonathan Marks, "We Don’t Need No Stinking Thought Leaders: Despite Daniel Drezner’s arguments to the contrary, now is not the 'worst of times' for public intellectuals."
https://www.insidehighered.com/views/2017/07/11/why-academics-should-strive-be-public-intellectuals-not-thought-leaders-essay
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Bi-Weekly Discussion - Are Coastal Elites Living in a "Bubble"?