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1. Summary of China and Taiwan political history as a background to the discussion
- China for the majority of the last 2000 years it is been governed under a centralized structure through various dynasties, security and order are prized above all as guiding political principle
- 17% of world population, 6% of landmass, borders 14 countries
- Main lessons drew from its conflicts with the West and Japan over the last 300 years (Might makes right / rules, long term security can only be achieved through geographical / economical domination)
Treaty of Shimonoseki | Korea, Taiwan, Japan | Britannica
- Taiwan
- an island that is been settled for 6000 years by native tribes, have limited Han farmers / fisherman moving in between 1300 and 1600 without mainland oversight
- Through Dutch and Spanish trade expansion it attracted massive immigration starting after 1620s then the chinese Ming and Qing Dynasty stepped in establish order once the pop and production reached critical mass
- The mainland governments didnt forcefully convert the natives but experienced constant unrest and rebellion from the Han pop (over 100 rebellions from settlers within 150 years), forcing government to repatriate most settlers back to mainland and limit pop inflow to Taiwan until late 1800s.
- Japan took Taiwan as a result from the unequal treaty and ruled it from 1895 until the end of wwII, during which it racially segregated and violently oppressed the Hans and natives while importing 400k japanese natives, on the plus side it build a big part of modern infrastructure on the island and modernized the school system
- Taiwan was under martial law by the ROC from 1949 after it fleeted mainland until 1987. The ROC brought over 2m ppl in addition to the 6m already living on the island, so 1/4 of the population today has direct link to the mainland or one generation removed. During the ROC rule, 140K ppl (mainly the elites / intellectuals) were arrested / executed on suspicion of CCP links in a period called white terror. On the plus side, it was able to executed a successful industrial policy with iron fist and generous US funding by the 1990 and able to peacefully transition to a healthy democracy which today is on the leading edge of a lot of best practices in term of voter participation and systems, digital access / coverage, social welfare, education and health care, supported by its traditional agriculture exports and cutting edge chip manufacturing
Taiwan - Wikipedia

2 Why is the conflict not resolved after much time and negotiations
- Line of demarcation base on victory vs defeat
- the losing party will never give up on changing the line until its capacity / will to fight is completely neutralized
Six Months or Forever: Doctrine to Defeat an Enemy Whose Center of Gravity is Time | Small Wars Journal
- Taiwan along with HongKong and Macao are all considered lines of defeat from the unequal treaties

3 War / Conflict is a real and last resort tool in the political toolbox
- Four phases of great power competition: Hot war, appeasement, Pygmalion, Cold War
- Unless war can be won decisively in short order, all wars become war of attrition
- the two dominating factors in a WOA are the Will to fight and the Capacity to fight
Stephen Kotkin on Ukraine, Russia, China and the World | Russia Matters

4 Strategic Intent of all major participants
- China: Taiwan is viewed as the fulcrum to China gaining a permanent geographical advantage (break the first island chain / allow it fully deploy its blue ocean navy) and economic control over the critical tech production of our time. Dominating the world in technology mfg, prevent Pygmalion tactic from US by introducing a new world order with China as the center
- US: maintain the first island chain containment (ensure operational supremacy in the pacific, secure its trade flow and regional influence), maintain strategic supply of a critical industry, Contain China on technology development and its diplomatic influence
- Taiwan and ASEAN maintain territorial integrity, balance between the 2

5 Current Tactics, Timeline and Pro / Con for a China / Taiwan conflict

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