Bi-Weekly Discussion - Post-Election Analysis

Hosted by Brian B.

Super Organizer

Philadelphia Political Agnostics

Details

This is going to be an online meetup using Zoom. If you've never used Zoom before, don't worry — it's easy to use and free to join.

Click on the link below at the scheduled date/time to log in...

***

POST-ELECTION ANALYSIS: WHAT CAN WE LEARN FROM THE ELECTION, AND HOW WILL IT AFFECT OUR POLITICAL TRAJECTORY?

INTRODUCTION:

On Nov. 5th, 2024, not only did Donald Trump regain the presidency with both an Electoral College victory and the majority of the popular vote, but the Republican Party also won control of the Senate & House, and with a conservative majority on the Supreme Court this allows the GOP virtually free reign to impose their legislative & executive agendas until at least the 2026 midterms. So how did it happen, and what does it tell us about the political trajectory of the country? Did a multiracial upswell of populism defeat an dysfunctional form of technocratic elitism, or did a reactionary demagogue dupe the majority of the Americans into jettisoning their commitment to liberal democracy - or do the results defy any single, simple narrative?

NOTE: I was originally going to look at various forecasts for Trump's economic policies & foreign policies, but I decided to save those topics for the following meetup.

RELEVANT MATERIALS FROM PAST MEETUPS:

In Mar. 2018, we had a meetup entitled "What Can We Learn From The 2016 Election?" We discussed what the 2016 presidential election meant for (1) the "party decides theory" and "lane theory" of primaries, (2) the "median voter theorem" in an era of high political polarization, (3) the accuracy of polls & election forecasting, and (4) the "white backlash" and "PC backlash" explanations for Trump's victory.

In Nov. 2020, we had a meetup entitled "Political Science & Political Myths, Part 2", where we discussed several findings from political science research including (1) the median voter theorem's applicability in an era of political polarization, (2) why swing voters are mostly "low-information voters" and why the "true independent voter" is rare, (2) why "fundamentals" rather than campaigns tend to determine general election outcomes, and (4) Arrow's impossibility theorem and why the idea of a "presidential mandate" may be a myth.

In Dec. 2020, we had a meetup entitled "Learning from the 2020 Election", where we discussed: (1) polling vs fundamentals-based forecasts vs prediction markets, (2) how race, gender & class affected voting patterns, (3) how the COVID pandemic & economic downturn affected voting, and (4) how the BLM protests & riots affected voting.

In Nov. 2022, we had a meetup entitled "Understanding the Great Realignment" where we discussed (1) how/why political parties & platforms change over time, (2) global trends that may be behind the rise in populism in the US & Europe, (3) whether independent candidates or a third party could revolutionize US politics, and (4) whether Trumpism & wokeness are realigning the two major parties.

In June 2024, we had a meetup entitled "Which Party's Coalition Will Crack First?" where we discussed (1) the growing gender divide among younger voters, (2) the rightward shift of some black & Latino men, (3) the growing split between the GOP & woke corporations, and (4) tensions between Trump's white working class base & the suburban, college-educated white voters (esp. women).

In Oct. 2024, we looked at opinions from various pundits who I'd loosely classify at "enlightened centrists" (e.g. Richard Hanania, Andrew Sullivan, Cathy Young, Yascha Mounk, Ilya Somin) & "bipartisan populists (e.g. Sohrab Ahmari, Michael Lind) to get a sense of how they were deciding whether to support Trump or Harris.

DIRECTIONS ON HOW TO PREPARE FOR OUR DISCUSSION:

The videos & articles you see linked below are intended to give you a basic overview of some of the major debates over the 2024 election. As usual, I certainly don't expect you to read all the articles prior to attending our discussion. The easiest way to prepare for our discussion is to just watch the numbered videos linked under each section - the videos come to about about 37 minutes total. The articles marked with asterisks are just there to supply additional details. You can browse and look at whichever ones you want, but don't worry - we'll cover the stuff you missed in our discussion.

In terms of the discussion format, my general idea is that we'll address the topics in the order presented here. I've listed some questions under each section to stimulate discussion. We'll do our best to address most of them, as well as whatever other questions our members raise. I figure we'll spend about 40 minutes on each section.

***

I. WHAT MISTAKES DID EACH CAMPAIGN MAKE - AND IN WHAT WAYS WERE THEY SUCCESSFUL?

1a) Fareed Zakaria w/ Ezra Klein & David Frum, "Democrats blew it by making three big mistakes" (video - 10:53 min.)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9yx_re0FyZM

1b) CBS News w/ Olivia Rinaldi & Aaron Navarro, "What was the ground game strategy that helped Trump win the presidency?" (video - 5:53 min, start at 1:37)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AVHbrGXl00M&t=1m37s

Eric Levtiz, "The left’s comforting myth about why Harris lost [i.e. she moved too much to the center]" https://www.vox.com/politics/385394/why-kamala-harris-lost-2024-democrats-moderation
Frank Vogl, "Money Didn’t Buy Trump the Election: Kamala Harris outspent Donald Trump – and lost. Money isn’t everything in politics, but it’s still a big problem."
https://www.usnews.com/opinion/articles/2024-11-15/trump-harris-and-musk-how-money-did-and-didnt-affect-the-election
Peter Aitken, "Kamala Harris' Celebrity Endorsements Didn't Matter. Can They Shift Voters?"
https://www.newsweek.com/kamala-harris-celebrity-endorsements-matter-shift-voters-1982493
Jon Schuppe & Kalhan Rosenblatt, "Yes, Trump improved with young men. But he drew young women, too."
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/yes-trump-improved-young-men-drew-young-women-rcna179019
Kathryn Smith, "ICYMI: New Survey Finds Anti-Trans Ads Ineffective, Disliked by Voters"
https://www.hrc.org/press-releases/icymi-new-survey-finds-anti-trans-ads-ineffective-disliked-by-voters

II. WHAT DID THE ELECTION TELL US ABOUT SHIFTS IN PUBLIC OPINION & VOTING BEHAVIORS OF EACH COALITION?

2a) WSJ, "How Trump Won: A Data Breakdown" (video - 3:13 min.)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S0pD0TJsR9k

2b) CBS w/ Micki McElya, "Women voters turned out less for Harris than the last 3 Democratic candidates" (video - 3:42 min.)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=goHkfV8ntso

John Sides, "Where to start to explain Trump’s win"
https://goodauthority.org/news/where-to-start-to-explain-trumps-win/
Musa al-Gharbi, "A Graveyard of Bad Election Narratives"
https://musaalgharbi.substack.com/p/a-graveyard-of-bad-election-narratives
Noah Smith, "Identity politics isn't working" and "The educated professional class is out of touch with America"
https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/identity-politics-isnt-working
https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/the-educated-professional-class-is
Rogé Karma w/ Patrick Ruffini, "The Strategist Who Predicted Trump’s Multiracial Coalition: Donald Trump made his biggest gains in diverse areas that have supported Democrats for decades. Why?"
https://archive.ph/0pTA5
Jon Judis & Ruy Teixera, "Trump Called His Win a ‘Historic Realignment’ of U.S. Politics. We Have Our Doubts."
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/13/opinion/trump-republicans-realignment.html

III. WITH TRUMP IN OFFICE & THE G.O.P. IN CHARGE OF CONGRESS, HOW WILL THE SOCIAL & POLITICAL LANDSCAPE EVOLVE OVER THE NEXT 4 YEARS?

3a) Reason Roundtable w/ Katherine Mangu-Ward, "The silver lining of a second Trump presidency" (video - 4:56 min.)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=91gpU0o_Dzk

3b) MSNBC w/ Mary Harris, Max Rose, Tom Rogers, Stephanie Gosk, Stephanie Ruhle, "Rebirth over resistance: Where the Democratic Party goes from here" (video - 10:01 min.)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uNBUALcOjyY

Yuval Levin, "What Trump's win doesn't mean"
https://thedispatch.com/article/what-trumps-win-doesnt-mean/
David Brooks, "Voters to Elites: Do You See Me Now?"
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/06/opinion/trump-elites-working-class.html
Zack Beauchamp, "Donald Trump has won — and American democracy is now in grave danger: Trump’s second term poses an existential threat to the republic. But there’s still good reason for hope."
https://www.vox.com/2024-elections/382696/donald-trump-wins-2024-election-results-democracy
Matt Yglesias, "How Donald Trump could succeed - Or, more likely, fail"
https://www.slowboring.com/p/how-donald-trump-could-succeed
Adrian Wooldridge, "It’s Too Soon to Say Wokeism Is Dead: When it comes to reshaping culture, a single victory, however lopsided, is not the end of the war."
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-11-13/trump-ism-hasn-t-killed-wokeism-yet
Richard Hanania, "Is Trump America-Pilling the Left? Why the return of MAGA to the White House might not make us more woke"
https://www.richardhanania.com/p/is-trump-america-pilling-the-left
Jack Despain Zhou (Tracing Woodgrains), "The Centre Must Rise: No centrist who understands the current moment has ever truly laid out their case to the Democratic Party base in the context of a serious political campaign. It’s time to change that."
https://quillette.com/2024/11/13/the-centre-must-rise-trump-harris-democrats-us-election/

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Philadelphia Political Agnostics

Bi-Weekly Discussion - Post-Election Analysis

Philadelphia Political Agnostics

Details

Related topics

You may also like