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This is going to be an online meetup using Zoom. If you've never used Zoom before, don't worry — it's easy to use and free to join.

Here's the link to the event: https://us02web.zoom.us/j/84220403766?pwd=a1pXQ296TnRtaGFrKzl6dFhNZEVwZz09

Meeting ID: 842 2040 3766
Passcode: 871588

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WHAT'S CAUSING AMERICA'S POLITICAL POLARIZATION - AND CAN WE REVERSE IT?

INTRODUCTION:

I often see articles right before the holidays suggesting tactics for navigating potentially heated political discussions with the extended family & in-laws around the dinner table. I figured this would be a good time to discuss political polarization, what causes it, and some possible ways to de-polarize American politics. Along the way, we'll consider some advice on how to maintain civility if & when you end up in a conversation about politics with someone you disagree with.

Before we start, we need to define political polarization. Wikipedia has a pretty decent entry which defines polarization as "divergence of political attitudes to ideological extremes" and which distinguishes between 4 types of polarization:
(1) "Elite Polarization", or polarization among politicians;
(2) "Mass Polarization", or polarization among voters;
(3) "Pernicious Polarization", which can mean extreme ideological polarization that prevents compromise but can also indicate high "affective polarization" - i.e. distrust & hatred of the other party;
(4) "Beneficial Polarization", which tends to mean moderate ideological polarization that enables voters to know what policies each party supports but doesn't entail high levels of mutual distrust or prohibit bipartisan compromises.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_polarization

As you can see from my outline, I've broken this topic down into 4 sections. In Part 1, we'll discuss the causes of voter polarization. In Part 2, we'll discuss the causes of party polarization. In Part 3, we'll discuss the possible solutions to voter polarization. In Part 4, we'll discuss the possible solutions to party polarization.

RELEVANT MATERIAL FROM PAST MEETUPS:

In Dec. 2020, we had a meetup entitled "Thinking About The Holidays" and in the 4th section we looked at advice from psychologists & family counselors about how to have civil discussions about politics over the holidays.
https://www.meetup.com/Philadelphia-Political-Agnostics/events/pbplbsybcqbrb/

Back in Mar. 2018, we had a meetup entitled "What Can We Learn From the 2016 Election?" In Part 2, we discussed the effects of political polarization & the way in which many journalists blame gerrymandering. Political scientists doubt this explanation because the Senate just as polarized as the House, even though each state gets 2 senators and gerrymandered districts don't sway their elections.
https://www.meetup.com/Philadelphia-Political-Agnostics/events/xvbrznyxfbgb/

In Aug. 2017, the Skeptics meetup looked at research on how exposure to new information can change people's minds to see if the "marketplace of ideas" concept can be empirically verified, both in terms of getting people to adopt new scientific theories & getting people to develop more empathy for their out-groups. In the 1st section of the outline, we discussed how cognitive dissonance can lead to a backfire effect in some cases, but research by the political scientists Brendan Nyhan & Jason Reifer suggest that in most cases people "heed factual information, even when such information challenges their partisan & ideological commitments". In the 2nd section, we discussed research into how different forms of activism can create more empathy for minority groups, particularly in terms of shifting people's views on same-sex marriage. In general, the research appears to indicate that in-person canvassing that uses rapport-building can work, but shaming people for their beliefs is liable to backfire.
https://www.meetup.com/Philly-Skeptics/events/240812126/

Back in Feb. 2018, we had a meetup on the major points of consensus within political science. One of those points that most political scientists agree upon (addressed in the 2nd section of the discussion outline) is that elections tend to be determined by "the fundamentals" (i.e. how the economy is doing, whether the country is at war, and how long the incumbent party has been in power) and that campaign ads, debates & speeches have an indiscernible (and possibly negligible) effect.
https://www.meetup.com/Philadelphia-Political-Agnostics/events/xvbrznyxdbxb/

In Nov. 2017, we had a meetup on climate change, and the 1st section of the discussion outline looked at how "cultural cognition" tends to lead liberals & conservatives to become MORE polarized in their beliefs about climate change the more they learned about the issue. This suggests that once scientific issues like climate change take on partisan meanings, merely providing the public with more information is unlikely to lead to wider belief.
https://www.meetup.com/Philadelphia-Political-Agnostics/events/zgmddnywnbmc/

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DIRECTIONS ON HOW TO PREPARE FOR OUR DISCUSSION:

The videos & articles you see linked below are intended to give you a basic overview of some of the major debates over political polarization. As usual, I certainly don't expect you to read all the articles & watch all the videos prior to attending our discussion. The easiest way to prepare for our discussion is to just watch the numbered videos linked under each section - the videos come to about about 47 minutes total. The articles marked with asterisks are just there to supply additional details. You can browse and look at whichever ones you want, but don't worry - we'll cover the stuff you missed in our discussion.

In terms of the discussion format, my general idea is that we'll address the topics in the order presented here. I figure we'll spend about 30 minutes on each section.

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I. WHAT'S CAUSING AFFECTIVE & IDEOLOGICAL POLARIZATION AMONG VOTERS?

  • AT THE VOTER LEVEL, IS POLITICAL POLARIZATION MORE ABOUT SPECIFIC POLICY DIFFERENCES, CLASHING IDENTITIES, DIVERGENT WORLDVIEWS, OR FEAR & ANGER TOWARDS THE OUT-GROUP?

  • HAVE INCREASINGLY PARTISAN NEWS MEDIA & ONLINE "ECHO CHAMBERS" LED TO MORE POLITICAL POLARIZATION BY INSULATING PEOPLE FROM OPPOSING VIEWS? OR HAS SOCIAL MEDIA ALLOWED MORE CONTACT WITH OPPOSING VIEWS, WHICH CAUSES A BACKFIRE EFFECT THAT POLARIZES US?

  • IS THE INCREASE IN LANDSLIDE DISTRICTS SINCE THE 1970s DUE TO GEOGRAPHIC SELF-SORTING THAT HAS TURNED NEIGHBORHOODS INTO "ECHO CHAMBERS"? IS THIS UNLIKELY TO CAUSE IDEOLOGICAL CONFORMITY SINCE MOST PEOPLE DON'T TALK TO THEIR NEIGHBORS ABOUT POLITICS?

  • ARE SHIFTING RACIAL DEMOGRAPHICS & LEFT-WING IDENTITY POLITICS INSPIRING A "WHITE BACKLASH" THAT INCREASES POLITICAL POLARIZATION?

  • IS WAGE STAGNATION & INCREASING INCOME INEQUALITY CREATING "ECONOMIC ANXIETY" THAT MAGNIFIES POLARIZATION? DOES THIS SPLIT THE WORKING CLASS ALONG RACIAL LINES?

  • DO WE OVERESTIMATE VOTER POLARIZATION BY FOCUSING ON ACTIVISTS & PRIMARY VOTERS AND OVERLOOKING THE "EXHAUSTED MAJORITY"?

1a) PBS w/ Michael Dimock & Amy Walter, "Pew study [in 2014] finds Americans more polarized than ever" (video - 7:31 min.)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tybX6kcJkwA

1b) Yphtach Lelkes, "Affective Polarization: Understanding Division in American Politics [in 2019]" (video - 2:51 min.)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cGzzs72W1LQ

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II. WHAT'S CAUSING THE POLARIZATION OF THE TWO MAJOR PARTIES IN WASHINGTON?

  • DID THE END OF JIM CROW & NIXON'S "SOUTHERN STRATEGY" LEAD TO IDEOLOGICAL POLARIZATION BY SHIFTING RACIST DIXIECRATS TO THE G.O.P. & LIBERAL ROCKEFELLER REPUBLICANS TO THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY? OR WAS IT THE RISE OF THE RELIGIOUS RIGHT & THE REAGAN REVOLUTION'S IMPACT ON ECONOMIC VIEWS THAT CAUSED POLARIZATION?

  • HAS PARTY POLARIZATION BEEN ASYMMETRICAL? DO "DW-NOMINATE SCORES" SHOW THAT CONSERVATIVES HAVE MOVED FURTHER RIGHT THAN DEMOCRATS HAVE MOVED LEFT, OR DOES THIS MERELY MEAN REPUBLICAN VOTES ARE MORE IDEOLOGICALLY CONSISTENT? HOW COULD TODAY'S G.O.P. BE "THE MOST CONSERVATIVE THEY'VE BEEN IN 100 YEARS" IF MOST OF THEIR SOCIAL VIEWS ARE MORE LIBERAL THAN THE AVERAGE AMERICAN IN THE 1960s, AND EVEN MORESO THAN IN THE 1920s?

  • HAS GERRYMANDERING INCREASED POLARIZATION IN THE HOUSE BY DECREASING MODERATE "PURPLE" VOTING DISTRICTS? IF SO, HOW CAN WE EXPLAIN POLARIZATION IN THE SENATE?

  • ARE MAJOR CAMPAIGN DONORS MORE PARTISAN THAN THE AVERAGE AMERICAN? IF SO, DOES RELIANCE ON BIG DONORS CAUSE POLARIZATION?

  • HAVE THE ELECTIONS THAT DETERMINE THE HOUSE MAJORITY BECOME CLOSER SINCE THE 1990s? IF SO, HAS THAT INCREASED POLARIZATION AS HOUSE REPUBLICANS FOUGHT HARDER?

  • IS POLITICAL POLARIZATION AS SEVERE AT THE STATE & LOCAL LEVEL? IF SO, WHY IS THERE LESS GRIDLOCK?

2a) Jane Mansbridge, "3 Causes of Polarization" (video - 3:17 min.)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3kU1-D3rktI

2b) Carol Swain, "Why Did the Democratic South Become Republican?" (video - 5:19 min)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UiprVX4os2Y

2c) Vox w/ Norm Ornstein, "Admit it. Republicans have broken politics." (video - 9:58 min)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mICxKmCjF-4

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III. WHAT CAN BE DONE TO DEPOLARIZE THE AMERICAN ELECTORATE?

  • COULD EXPOSURE TO MORE CROSS-PARTISAN CONTENT MODERATE PEOPLE'S VIEWS, OR IS IT MORE LIKELY TO ENRAGE THEM? WOULD THE ALTERNATIVE BE MORE EXPOSURE TO "CENTRIST/MODERATE" VIEWS?

  • COULD SOCIAL MEDIA ALGORITHMS BE TWEAKED TO SHOW LESS POLARIZING CONTENT? WOULD INCREASING THE VISIBILITY OF "CROSS-CUTTING" POLITICAL CONTENT HELP, PROVIDED IT WAS MODERATE?

  • CAN BIPARTISAN POLITICAL MEETUPS LIKE THOSE DONE BY "BETTER ANGELS" HELP BREAK DOWN PARTISAN STEREOTYPES & INCREASE CROSS-PARTISAN TRUST? OR IS THEIR RETAIL APPROACH TOO LIMITED? HOW NECESSARY ARE THE COUNSELING TECHNIQUES THAT "BETTER ANGELS" USES TO AVOID HEATED DEBATES?

  • DOES CONFRONTING THE COMPLEXITIES & TRADEOFFS OF POLICY-MAKING HELP DEPOLARIZE VOTERS' VIEWS? IF SO, HOW CAN WE COAX THEM TO DO THIS?

  • WILL DECLINING RELIGIOUS OBSERVANCE & RACIAL DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE AUTOMATICALLY DEPOLARIZE AMERICAN POLITICS WITHIN THE NEXT 10-20 YEARS? OR ARE THE PARTIES ALREADY SHOWING SIGNS OF POLARIZATION ALONG GEOGRAPHIC & CLASS LINES?

3a) Damon Centola, "Here’s How To Solve Political Polarization on Climate Change" (video - 2:20 min.)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p-qJHyPFyk0

3b) CBS This Morning, "Better Angels help communities ease political tensions" (video - 6:00 min.)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5mLDgtUuK34

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IV. WHAT CAN BE DONE TO DEPOLARIZE THE TWO MAJOR PARTIES & DECREASE PARTISAN GRIDLOCK IN CONGRESS?

  • COULD REDISTRICTING THAT UNDID GERRYMANDERING & DECREASED THE "EFFICIENCY GAP" HELP DEPOLARIZE THE HOUSE?

  • COULD OPEN PRIMARIES THAT ALLOWED INDEPENDENTS TO VOTE FOR REPUBLICAN & DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATES HELP PROMOTE MORE MODERATE CANDIDATES & REDUCE POLARIZATION? OR DO MOST INDEPENDENTS HAVE STRONGLY PARTISAN VIEWS?

  • WOULD RANKED CHOICE VOTING POLARIZE POLITICS MORE BY GIVING EXTREMIST CANDIDATE MORE VOTES IN THE 1st ROUND, OR WOULD IT ENCOURAGE POLITICIANS TO APPEAL TO A BROADER SWATHE OF VOTERS SO THEY GET MORE VOTES IN THE 2nd ROUND?

  • IS "REPRESENT.US" RIGHT THAT PUBLICLY-FUNDED ELECTIONS WOULD DEPOLARIZE CONGRESS BY ENDING THE RELIANCE ON BIG DONORS? OR DO RESULTS FROM THE "CLEAN ELECTIONS" SYSTEMS IN ARIZONA & MAINE SUGGEST IT WOULDN'T HAVE A BIG EFFECT?

  • COULD CONGRESSIONAL TERM LIMITS HELP REDUCE CORRUPTION & POLARIZATION? OR WOULD THEY JUST DECREASE ACCOUNTABILITY & INCREASE THE RELIANCE OF INEXPERIENCED LEGISLATORS ON LOBBYISTS & BUREAUCRATS?

  • COULD THE "UNITE AMERICA" PROJECT DEPOLARIZE CONGRESS BY ELECTING MORE INDEPENDENTS? IF THAT'S TOO HARD, SHOULD THEY FOCUS ON ELECTING MODERATE DEMOCRATS & REPUBLICANS?

  • WOULD GETTING RID OF THE NEED FOR A TWO-THIRDS VOTE IN THE SENATE TO OVERRIDE THE FILIBUSTER DECREASE GRIDLOCK? OR IS FORCING THE MAJORITY PARTY TO SEEK SOME DEGREE OF BIPARTISAN COMPROMISE A GOOD THING?

4a) PBS w/ Martin Frost & Tom Davis, "How can Washington bridge its ‘Partisan Divide’?" (video - 8:23 min.)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zs35VcYPoNI

4b) Unite America, "The Centrist Project: Breakthrough Politics" (video - 1:32 min.)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=enksQuPTFt8

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