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This is going to be an online meetup using Zoom. If you've never used Zoom before, don't worry — it's easy to use and free to join.

Here's the link to the event: https://us02web.zoom.us/j/87145278748?pwd=cmZYTkQyL1BoQ3JIYTlWei9ydFJqUT09

Meeting ID: 871 4527 8748
Passcode: 161107

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LEARNING FROM THE 2020 ELECTION RESULTS:

INTRODUCTION:

In our last meetup, we reviewed some common trends that political scientists have identified in the ways that people vote. However, the 2020 election defied the forecasts of many pollsters -- although Joe Biden won the presidency, the predicted "Blue Wave" never materialized. The Democrats failed to win the Senate, although we'll have to wait for the two Georgia run-offs in January to see if they can achieve a 50-50 tie. The Democrats also lost seats in the House, and failed to gain even one governorship or tip even one state legislature. This is rather strange when we consider the "coattail effect", i.e. the tendency for a popular political party leader to attract votes for down-ballot candidates of the same party in an election, largely due to straight-ticket voting.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coattail_effect

Even more surprisingly, exit polls suggested that despite repeated accusations of racism, Donald Trump appeared to receive increased support from racial minorities, which prompted a wave of theories about why Democrats didn't do better with black & Hispanic voters. Some pundits argued Hispanic voters, especially Cuban-Americans in South Florida, might suffer from "internalized racism" or "aspirational whiteness", while some African-American men might've been drawn to Trump's "Platinum Plan" which was praised over the summer by several hip-hop artists like 50 Cent, Lil Wayne & Ice Cube. Other pundits criticized these somewhat condescending explanations as evidence of a vein of implicit racism among white liberal pundits.

In our last discussion, we discussed how political scientists like Larry Bartels & Christopher Achen have found that most voters are "myopic" - (i.e. voters tend to only focus on conditions in the election year rather than a politician's entire term) and bad at determining causality (i.e. voters tend to blame politicians for the prevailing conditions whether or not it was their fault). Based on this "blind retrospection" theory of voting, it seemed like the COVID pandemic and the economic recession would badly hurt Trump's support. However, predictions about the effects of the protests & riots in the wake of George Floyd's death went both ways -- some predicted Joe Biden would benefit from being seen as the candidate who could broker racial reconciliation & policing reform, while others predicted the riots would cause a conservative backlash in public opinion which could benefit Trump as he positioned himself as the "law & order" candidate. And as Ezra Klein noted in September, despite all the chaos in 2020, Trump's presidential approval rating has remained historically low but displayed an "eerie stability" which challenged basic ideas in political science about "responsive democracy". This suggests the American electorate may be so polarized that most people won't even consider voting for the "other side".
https://www.vox.com/2020/9/2/21409364/trump-approval-rating-2020-election-voters-coronavirus-convention-polls

So what happened? We'll try to figure it out in this meetup...

RELEVANT MATERIAL FROM PAST MEETUPS:

In our last discussion, entitled "Political Science & Political Myths, Part 2", we discussed several findings from political science research including (1) the median voter theorem's applicability in an era of political polarization, (2) why swing voters are mostly "low-information voters" and why the "true independent voter" is rare, (2) why "fundamentals" rather than campaigns tend to determine general election outcomes, and (4) Arrow's impossibility theorem and why the idea of a "presidential mandate" may be a myth.
https://www.meetup.com/Philadelphia-Political-Agnostics/events/pbplbsybcpbtb/

In March of 2018, we had a meetup entitled "What Can We Learn From The 2016 Election?" We discussed what the 2016 presidential election meant for (1) the "party decides theory" and "lane theory" of primaries, (2) the "median voter theorem" in an era of high political polarization, (3) the accuracy of polls & election forecasting, and (4) the "white backlash" and "PC backlash" explanations for Trump's victory - https://www.meetup.com/Philadelphia-Political-Agnostics/events/xvbrznyxfbgb/

Back in June, Perry World House had an event called "Elections and Infections" with former PA representative Charlie Dent and the UPenn political scientist John Lapinski where they discussed how the COVID pandemic might affect the 2020 election.
https://www.meetup.com/Philadelphia-Political-Agnostics/events/270817927/

Back in June, we had a meetup entitled "Understanding Political Violence" and in Section 2 we discussed the Princeton political scientist Omar Wasow's research into the effects of both non-violent protests & riots in the late 1960s on public opinion & the 1968 presidential election. In general, peaceful protests increased the public's concern with civil rights and increased Democratic Party's vote share in the counties where they occurred. Conversely, riots increased the public concern with "law & order" and increased Republican Party's vote share in the counties where they occurred, possibly tipping the '68 election to Nixon.
https://www.meetup.com/Philadelphia-Political-Agnostics/events/271243998/

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DIRECTIONS ON HOW TO PREPARE FOR OUR DISCUSSION:

The videos & articles you see linked below are intended to give you a basic overview of some of the major things we can learn from the results of the 2020 election. As usual, I certainly don't expect you to read all the articles & watch all the videos prior to attending our discussion. The easiest way to prepare for our discussion is to just watch the numbered videos linked under each section - the videos come to about about 39 minutes total. The articles marked with asterisks are just there to supply additional details. You can browse and look at whichever ones you want, but don't worry - we'll cover the stuff you missed in our discussion.

In terms of the discussion format, my general idea is that we'll address the topics in the order presented here. I figure we'll spend about 30 minutes on each section.

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I. POLLING, FUNDAMENTALS-BASED FORECASTS & PREDICTION MARKETS:

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1a) Matter of Fact w/ W. Joseph Campbell, "Problems with Polling After Pollsters Incorrectly Predicted a 'Blue Wave'” (video - 3:40 min.)
https://youtu.be/rSfilKYdKV4

1b) Coleman Hughes w/ David Shor, "Why did the polls under-predict Trump’s success?" (video - 7:40 min.)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RXhWllCaJ4I

Danielle Kurzleben, "Why Were The Polls Off? Pollsters Have Some Early Theories"
https://www.npr.org/2020/11/19/936317341/why-were-the-polls-off-pollsters-have-some-early-theories

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II. WHAT THE RESULTS TELL US ABOUT HOW RACE, GENDER & CLASS AFFECTED VOTING:

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2a) CNBC, "Suburban women voters divided on Donald Trump, Joe Biden due to these key issues" (video - 2:58 min.)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wZhz0QXJQ2Q

2b) France 24 English, "Donald Trump makes surprising gains with minority voters" (video - 7:34 min.)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hgERU7H4NIc

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III. WHAT THE RESULTS TELL US ABOUT HOW THE COVID PANDEMIC & ECONOMIC DOWNTURN AFFECTED VOTING:

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3a) Reuters, "Exit polls: how did coronavirus impact voters?" (video - 1:15 min.)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KbNWqjcyzwc

3b) Nate Silver, "'I buy that COVID was a factor in polls underestimating' GOP" (video - 2:39 min.)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O7bWIvQSvgk

3c) NBC News, "What Impact Will The Economy Have On Trump's Re-election Chances?" (video - 2:57 min.)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-0hr_I21tx8

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IV. WHAT THE RESULTS TELL US ABOUT HOW POLICE BRUTALITY, PROTESTS & RIOTS AFFECTED VOTING:

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4a) PBS w/ Omaw Wasow, "What the 1960s can teach us about modern-day protests" (video - 4:53 min.)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=flEfObwz8VE

4b) Bloomberg, "How the Police Helped Get Biden Elected" (video - 5:46 min.)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1cjv6Dk4jHY

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