Skip to content

Details

This is going to be an online meetup using Zoom. If you've never used Zoom before, don't worry — it's easy to use and free to join.

Here's the link to the event: https://us02web.zoom.us/j/89145157631?pwd=VTRYb1lHUUZhN044b216REJoZ2dSQT09

***

***

HARD LESSONS FROM THE "WAR ON TERROR" FOR THE "NEW COLD WAR" & THE "WAR ON DOMESTIC TERRORISM":

CAN WE AVOID REPEATING OUR FAILURES IN THE MIDDLE EAST AS WE TRY TO COUNTER RUSSIA & CHINA WHILE BATTLING EXTREMISM AT HOME?

INTRODUCTION:

For the past two decades, on the anniversary on the 9/11 attacks, we'd often see retrospective op-eds in the news and "Remember 9/11" memes being shared on social media. But a year after the withdrawal of the last U.S. troops from Afghanistan as the country rapidly fell to the Taliban, it's not still clear what the major lessons should be, aside from the high cost and low chance of success of foreign military interventions that involve prolonged occupations and "nation-building" amidst a fight against insurgents. (Total U.S. casualties in the Global War on Terror were around 15,000, but civilian deaths are estimated at 387,000 and allied members of national military & police forces lost about 207,000. The total cost to US taxpayers was about $8 trillion - without much to show for it aside from some increased literacy rates & decreased child mortality rates in Afghanistan that will probably be erased.)

We discussed some of the other possible lessons from the War in Afghanistan in a meetup last September, such as: (1) whether the 9/11 attacks were caused by "blowback" from the CIA sponsoring the Mujahideen in the Soviet-Afghan War or not enough nation-building in its aftermath, (2) the conflict between the Powell Doctrine's emphasis on "exit strategy" and the "Pottery Barn Rule" (you break it, you bought it), (3) the "resource curse" and the problem of kleptocracies developing in U.S. client states, and (4) whether U.S. counterinsurgency doctrine fell prey to the "McNamara fallacy" (too much focus on enemy casualties as a success metric) or the "hearts and minds fallacy" (too much focus on winning popular support instead of crushing the insurgents and their supporters). We also briefly touched upon the debate over whether "persistent presence" (i.e. nation building) or "repetitive raiding" (surgical bombing strikes & short-lived special ops to destroy terrorist networks) is strategically wiser.

But do any of these lessons generalize to other areas of U.S. foreign policy - or domestic conflicts?

In the first part of this discussion, we'll look at recent developments in America's foreign policy towards the Middle East and how we can promote peace & stability in the region while avoiding another costly military intervention like those in Iraq & Afghanistan, or a repeat of the Arab Spring revolts that toppled dictators but failed to bring about a lasting transition to democracy. We'll also consider how this relates to the emerging Iran-Saudi proxy conflict, signs of an Arab-Israeli rapprochement, Turkey's slide into authoritarianism, the spread of Islamic extremist groups in Africa, and the "New Great Game" as Russia, China. India & Iran compete for influence in Central Asia now that the U.S. has withdrawn.

In the second section, we'll discuss whether the trouble we had with insurgencies, corrupt client states & regional players in the Middle East has any applicability for the looming era of "great power conflict" with Russia & China. The most obvious overlaps between the War on Terror and the New Cold War are with U.S. efforts to counter Russia's involvement in Syria and China's involvement in Pakistan & Afghanistan. But we'll also consider how the lessons from the insurgencies in Afghanistan, Iraq & Syria might apply to the current proxy war with Russia in Ukraine, which in turn affects how China perceives its chances of invading & reconquering Taiwan.

In the third section, we'll discuss whether there's anything we can learn from the way ethnic & religious divisions in the Middle East made democracy virtually impossible and apply this to America's current era of intense political polarization. We'll also look at past debates over the possibility of the Patriot Act, GITMO detentions, drone warfare, and the NSA Prism program being used against American citizens. This has increased relevance as we contemplate the difficulties the U.S. military had with combating terrorist networks in Iraq & Afghanistan, and how that might apply to the Biden administration's "War on Domestic Terrorism" in the wake of the storming of the Capitol by Trump supporters. As we'll discuss, if mishandled, this runs the risk of seeming like a "War on Republicans" which could create more of the very right-wing extremism it hopes to combat, erode public support for the administration's foreign policy goals, and hamstring the military's recruiting efforts in red states.

RELEVANT MATERIAL FROM PAST MEETUPS:

Since the 1st section deals with U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East, it may be worth looking back at a Cato Institute panel discussion from March 2021 entitled "What Does America Need from the Middle East?", as well as a discussion hosted by Perry World House in Oct. 2021 entitled "U.S. Strategic Partnerships in the Middle East" (Oct. 2021).

Since the 2nd section deals with the "New Cold War" with Russia & China, it could be useful to refer back to American Purpose's recent talk with Hal Brands about the thesis of his book, The Twilight Struggle: What the Cold War Teaches Us about Great-Power Rivalry, as well as the Cato Institute's recent talk with Ali Wyne about his book, America’s Great‐​Power Opportunity.

We also dealt with the different threats posed by Russia as a declining power and China as a rising power in a meetup back in March entitled "Are We Headed For World War 3?", and we talked about different frameworks for understanding the Ukraine conflict in a meetup back in April.

Since the 3rd section deals with parallels between democratic failure in the Third World and America, it could be useful to refer back to a pair of discussions that Gary Kasparov's Renew Democracy Initiative hosted back in Oct-Nov. 2021 on this topic.

In terms of assessing the chances of our "Cold Civil War" becoming hot, you can refer back to the 3rd section of the outline of a discussion we had in Feb. 2022 entitled "Understanding Political Violence".

***

DIRECTIONS ON HOW TO PREPARE FOR OUR DISCUSSION:

The videos & articles you see linked below are intended to give you a basic overview of some of the major debates over the lessons we should learn from the 20-year War on Terror in the Middle East. As usual, I certainly don't expect you to read all the articles prior to attending our discussion. The easiest way to prepare for our discussion is to just watch the numbered videos linked under each section - the videos come to about 51 minutes total. The articles marked with asterisks are just there to supply additional details. You can browse and look at whichever ones you want, but don't worry - we'll cover the stuff you missed in our discussion.

In terms of the discussion format, my general idea is that we'll address the topics in the order presented here. I've listed some questions under each section heading to stimulate discussion. We'll do our best to address most of them, as well as whatever additional questions our members raise. I figure we'll spend about 40 minutes on each section.

***

I. LESSONS FROM THE WAR ON TERROR FOR U.S. POLICY IN THE MIDDLE EAST & AFRICA:

.
II. LESSONS FROM THE WAR ON TERROR FOR GREAT POWER CONFLICT WITH RUSSIA & CHINA IN THE "NEW COLD WAR":

  • IS RUSSIA'S INTEREST IN SYRIA'S ASSAD REGIME, AND OBAMA'S EFFORT TO TOPPLE ASSAD, MOSTLY RELATED TO PLANS FOR PIPELINES THAT WILL AFFECT EUROPE'S ACCESS TO OIL?
  • DOES RUSSIA'S SUCCESS IN PROPPING UP THE ASSAD REGIME THROUGH MASSIVE BOMBING CAMPAIGNS SUGGEST IT WILL BE ABLE TO EVENTUALLY CONQUER UKRAINE THIS WAY, OR IS IT MORE LIKELY THEY'LL BE DRAINED BY FIGHTING A PROLONGED INSURGENCY, AS HAPPENED TO BOTH THE SOVIETS & THE U.S. IN AFGHANISTAN?
  • COULD ARMING NEONAZIS LIKE AZOV BATTALION IN UKRAINE CAUSE "BLOWBACK" ON THE U.S. LIKE ARMING THE MUJAHADEEN IN AFGHANISTAN & ANTI-ASSAD MILITIAS IN SYRIA?
  • NOW THAT THE U.S. HAS WITHDRAWN FROM AFGHANISTAN, WILL CHINA GAIN ACCESS TO ITS STRATEGICALLY VALUABLE LITHIUM RESERVES? OR WILL FIGHTING BETWEEN THE TALIBAN & ISIS-K MAKE THIS VERY DIFFICULT?
  • WILL CHINA'S BELT & ROAD INITIATIVE ALLOW IT TO CARVE OUT A SPHERE OF INFLUENCE IN CENTRAL ASIA, OR WILL RUSSIA, IRAN & INDIA CONTEST THAT?
  • DID THE BUNGLED U.S. WITHDRAWAL FROM AFGHANISTAN HURT U.S. STANDING WITH ITS ALLIES BY SHOWING WE WON'T STAY THE COURSE, OR IS IT UNDERSTOOD THAT WE'LL BACK UKRAINE & TAIWAN MORE FORCEFULLY SINCE THEY'RE MORE STRATEGICALLY CRITICAL?

2a) WION, "Cold War 2.0: Who will shape the new world order?" (video - 8:47 min.)

2c) CRUX, "From Vietnam, To Afghanistan & Ukraine: Why Mighty Nations Like US & Russia Indulge In Proxy Wars" (video - 7:08 min.)

2c) WSJ, "Why China and the U.S. Are Vying for Dominance in Pakistan" (video - 4:52 min.)

.

.
III. LESSONS FROM THE WAR ON TERROR FOR THE "COLD CIVIL WAR" AND THE MILITARY RECRUITING CRISIS

  • HAS "GOVERNANCE FAILURE" IN THE U.S. BRED RIGHT-WING EXTREMISM, SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW IN THE MIDDLE EAST, OR IS THIS THE "HEARTS & MINDS FALLACY"?
  • CAN OUR FOREIGN POLICY'S BALACING ACT BETWEEN PROMOTING HUMAN RIGHTS & ACCOMODATING THE CONSERVATIVE SOCIAL VIEWS OF MOST MUSLIMS IN THE MIDDLE EAST BE APPLIED IN THE U.S. TO REDUCE POLITICAL POLARIZATION?
  • DO THE BUSH & OBAMA ERA DOMESTIC SURVEILLANCE PROGRAMS POSE A GREATER THREAT TO OUR CIVIL LIBERTIES IN A "WAR ON DOMESTIC TERRORISM", OR WILL THESE PROGRAMS BE MORE RESTRAINED BY LEGAL PROTECTIONS FOR U.S. CITIZENS?
  • COULD CHINA & RUSSIA WEAKEN U.S. COMMITMENT OVERSEAS BY INCITING OR EVEN SPONSORING DOMESTIC TERRORISTS?
  • DO WE HAVE ACCURATE STATS ON THE NUMBER OF RADICALS AMONG THE GOP & VETERANS?
  • DO BIDEN’S CLAIMS THAT GUNOWNERS WOULD NEED F-15s & NUKES TO OVERTHROW THE GOV'T SUGGEST HE DIDN'T LEARN THE DANGERS OF GUERILLA FIGHTERS WITH RIFLES & IEDs FROM AFGHANISTAN?
  • IS THE U.S. MILITARY RECRUITING CRISIS PRIMARILY DUE TO PERCEPTIONS OF A "WOKE MILITARY" UNDER BIDEN, OR OTHER ISSUES LIKE A TIGHT LABOR MARKET & TOO MANY YOUTH WHO CAN'T PASS MUSTER?
  • DID BIDEN'S RECENT SPEECH WHERE HE CONDEMNED "MAGA REPUBLICANS" AS "SEMI-FASCISM" RALLY HIS BASE FOR MIDTERMS BUT WORSEN OUR POLITICAL POLARIZATION?
  • ARE DEMOCRAT GROUPS SUPPORTING "MAGA REPUBLICANS" IN GOP PRIMARIES BECAUSE THEY FIGURE THEY'LL BE EASIER TO BEAT?

3a) MSNBC w/ Clint Watts & Dean Obeidallah, "The Rise of Domestic Terrorism 20 Years After 9/11/2001" (video - 4:04 min.)

3b) Fox News w/ Glenn Greenwald, "This is the new 'war on terror'" (video - 5:08 min.)

3c) Task & Purpose, "4 Reasons Nobody is Joining the Military" (video - 10:52 min, start at 3:54)

.

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Related topics

Military
U.S. Politics
International Relations
Foreign Policy Topics
Middle East

You may also like