Bi-Weekly Discussion - Coastal Cities & Climate Change

We're currently hosting our discussions at Café Walnut, near the corner of 7th & Walnut in Olde City, just across the street from Washington Square Park. The cafe's entrance is below street level down some stairs, which can be confusing if it's your first time. Our group meets in the large room upstairs.

Since we're using the cafe's space, they ask that each person attending the meetup at least purchase a drink or snack. Please don't bring any food or drinks from outside.

The cafe is fairly easy to get to if you're using public transit. With SEPTA, take the Market-Frankford Line & get off at the 5th Street Station (corner of 5th & Market), and walk 2 blocks south on 5th and then turn right on Walnut Street and walk 2 blocks west. With PATCO, just get off at the 9th-10th & Locust stop and walk 3 blocks east & 1 block north. For those who are driving, parking in the neighborhood can be tough to find. If you can't find a spot on the street, I'd suggest parking in the Washington Square parking deck at 249 S 6th Street which is just a half block away.

SAVING COASTAL CITIES FROM CLIMATE CHANGE

INTRODUCTION:

Our last discussion dealt mostly with estimating the future effects of climate change & how this justifies climate change mitigation efforts - namely cutting carbon emissions & developing renewable energy production. In this discussion, we'll shift to the topic of climate change adaptation, i.e. what should we do to prepare for some of the inevitable negative effects of climate change in the near future?

In the first section of our discussion, we'll look at how coastal cities can use urban planning & engineering principles to prepare for climate change. We'll focus especially on U.S. cities on the Gulf & Atlantic coasts where the problems of sea level rise will be exacerbated by more powerful hurricanes that could cause massive flooding.

In the second section, we'll look at some of the economic policies that can speed recovery after a hurricane & help incentivize residents to avoid building on flood plains and why those policies raise ethical dilemmas. We'll also consider why well-intended recovery policies often tend to worsen wealth inequality.

In the third & fourth sections, we'll look at how hurricanes affect the social fabric & political dynamics of cities, and we'll see why some cities come together & recover quickly from hurricanes while others devolve into civil unrest & corruption in a hurricane's wake.

WHICH COASTAL CITIES ARE THE MOST VULNERABLE TO CLIMATE CHANGE?

Before we discuss what coastal cities should do about the dangers posed by sea level rise & hurricanes, it's important to ask: How can we get a general sense of which coastal cities are the most vulnerable?

A good resource for determining this is a research report at Climate Central that ranks the U.S. cities most vulnerable to major coastal floods using three different metrics:

1. The total population within the FEMA 100-year floodplain
2. The total population within the FEMA 100-year floodplain as augmented by sea level rise projections for the year 2050
3. The total high social vulnerability population within the same areas as group #2
   https://www.climatecentral.org/news/us-cities-most-vulnerable-major-coastal-flooding-sea-level-rise-21748

New York City, Philadelphia, Houston, Baltimore, and Miami were among the big cities with the largest high social vulnerability populations within the future FEMA 100-year floodplain, and Atlantic City and many coastal mid-sized towns in Florida round out the list.

Climate Central determined "social vulnerability" by using the "Social Vulnerability Index" (SoVI) developed by the Hazards and Vulnerability Research Institute, which incorporates 29 different socioeconomic variables to evaluate the ability of communities to prepare and respond to environmental hazards such as floods. These variables include the poverty rate & percentage of children under 5 & seniors over 65, as well as indicators related to family structure, language barriers, vehicle availability, disabilities, and healthcare access: http://artsandsciences.sc.edu/geog/hvri/sovi®-0

RELEVANT MATERIAL FROM PAST MEETUPS:

Back in April, we had a past meetup where we discussed the moral philosophy, economics, psychology & political science research on taxation. There's a moral & economic case for a "value capture" tax on "positive externalities" people gain from the state's provision of public goods (e.g. protections against extreme weather), and there's also a good case for a Pigouvian tax on "negative externalities" like carbon emissions. However, public shortsightedness & the political incentives for lawmakers make this sort of sacrifice for a long-term public benefit very difficult.
https://www.meetup.com/Philadelphia-Political-Agnostics/events/259946508/

In our last meetup, entitled "How Should We Deal With Climate Change?", we looked at the conflicting estimates about the potential economic damages from climate change and how this leads to differing estimates for the "social cost of carbon" - i.e. the appropriate level of carbon tax to cut emissions enough to mitigate climate change while not tanking the economy. We also talked about where revenue from a carbon tax should go. While many economists would like to see this money go to subsidize renewable energy & fund climate change adaptation (e.g. protecting coastal cities), some political scientists fear a carbon tax would be too politically unpopular unless it's revenue neutral or funds a "citizen's dividend".
https://www.meetup.com/Philadelphia-Political-Agnostics/events/chrnnqyzjbmb/