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Biweekly Discussion: Bad History & Our Political Crisis

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Brian B.
Biweekly Discussion: Bad History & Our Political Crisis

Details

This is going to be an online meetup using Zoom. If you've never used Zoom before, don't worry — it's easy to use and free to join.

Here's the link to the event: https://us02web.zoom.us/j/86175162209?pwd=ODI3MGRjeTJxb1NBa0xJOVU0TUhNZz09

Meeting ID: 861 7516 2209
Passcode: 485138

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IS BAD HISTORY DISTORTING OUR THINKING ON THE CURRENT AMERICAN POLITICAL CRISIS?

INTRODUCTION:

In several past meetups, we've discussed "pseudohistory" - i.e. a dishonest form of scholarship that attempts to distort or misrepresent the historical record, often using methods that superficially resemble those used in legitimate historical research but analyze historical evidence in a flawed manner. Pseudohistory frequently presents sensational claims about historical facts which would require a radical revision of the historical record, and this usually entails either: (1) asserting that an event that's assumed to be fictional by mainstream historians actually happened (e.g. Noah's flood, the sinking of Atlantis, aliens visiting ancient human civilizations), or (2) denying that an event that mainstream historians believe happened even occurred or that a historical figure even existed (e.g. Holocaust denial, the Phantom Time Hypothesis about the Middle Ages, the Jesus myth theory), or (3) claiming major details of a historical event were different than they're described in mainstream histories (e.g. the Anti-Stratfordian theory about someone else writing Shakespeare's plays, the "Lost Cause" historiography that claims the Civil War wasn't fought over slavery, JFK assassination conspiracy theories). Many pseudohistory theories also allege a conspiracy theory within the field of historical scholarship that tries to suppress their ideas.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pseudohistory

In this meetup, we'll address the somewhat less egregious phenomena of "bad history" and "misuse of history" - i.e. forms of historical scholarship that violate the historical method in some way without entailing falsification or distortion of the historical record. In the first half of this discussion, we'll look at how many people in recent years have used flawed "historical analogies" to try to understand America's heightened political polarization & the uptick in political violence over the last 5 years. Specifically, we'll look at analogies between our political conflicts today and those in the U.S. in the period leading up to the Civil War and/or in Weimar Germany leading up to the Nazi takeover.

While "comparative history" is generally considered to be a legitimate academic endeavor, historians are often wary of untrained people using historical analogies to try to understand the present or predict the future. The problem is these analogies are often based on the false assumption that if two events separated in time agree in one respect, then they probably agree in many other ways. Amateurs will often make the mistake of focusing too much on a few similarities between two historical events while overlooking major differences in the economies, political structures, demographic trends, cultural norms, etc., of the times and places they're comparing, leading to flawed analogies. Historical analogies can also become incredibly strained when non-historians who have only a cursory knowledge of past events have very small "reference classes" to draw upon, usually very dramatic ones, with the result that any political leader they suspect of wrongdoing might be compared to Hitler or Stalin, or any political conflict is assumed to be escalating towards a "Second Civil War", another Holocaust, or purges & gulags. If you're worried about our current political crisis and your understanding of political violence is based entirely on the Civil War and World War II, you may begin to look for a "Harpers Ferry raid" or "Fort Sumter attack" or a "Kristallnacht" or "Reichstag fire" rather than using a broader understanding of "trigger events" to look for a wider ranger of possible catalysts for political violence. This tendency to focus only one or two well-known dramatic turning points in history is related to the problem of "extension neglect" in scientific research where the sample size is ignored while evaluating a study.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comparative_historical_research
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reference_class_forecasting
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extension_neglect

Another reason that people will often make bad historical analogies to Hitler and the Nazis (or occasionally Stalin & the communists, or some other reviled group like the KKK or Islamic terrorists) is rhetorical - i.e. it's a use of "guilt by association" to demonize a political opponent, and it can be used to derail arguments because such comparisons tend to distract and anger opponents. In the case of Hitler comparisons, it was a common enough tactic in political debates that the philosopher Leo Strauss coined the term "reductio ad Hitlerum" in 1953, less than a decade after WWII ended. In political debates on the internet, it's not uncommon for people to trade recriminations, trying to one-up each other as the debate goes on, to the point that someone eventually compares the other side to the Nazis. This tendency has come to be known as "Godwin's law", one of the so-called "rules of the internet" which states that "as an online discussion grows longer, the probability of a comparison involving Nazis or Hitler approaches 1." It was coined by the lawyer Mike Godwin, who made an observation about Nazi comparisons popping up in Usenet debates way back in in 1990.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reductio_ad_Hitlerum
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Godwin%27s_law

In the second half of this discussion, we'll look at the related phenomena of "social cycle theories" that claim that America's current period of heightened political conflict can be understood and even predicted on the basis of a pattern of regular conflicts that repeats throughout American history or all of world history. We'll look at two social cycle theories promoted in a pair of books that have been heavily discussed in the media recently - the "Strauss-Howe generational theory" from William Strauss & Neil Howe's books Generations (1991) and The Fourth Turning (1997) and "structural-demographic theory" as presented in Peter Turchin's books War and Peace and War (2006) and Ages of Discord (2016).
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strauss–Howe_generational_theory
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Structural-demographic_theory

As with historical analogies, historians are often wary of cyclical theories that posit regular, clock-like intervals of (say) 20, 50, 80, or 150 years that can allegedly be used to predict the future. Anyone familiar with the irregular patterns of stock market fluctuations, birth rates, or crime rates will immediately realize that while these do fluctuate over time they don't produce regular cyclical patterns like a sine wave that can easily be predicted. Attempts to correct for this by stacking cycles on top of cycles recalls the "epicycles" of pre-Copernican astronomy's geocentric model of the solar system. These sort of modifications smack of trying to avoid falsification of the cyclical theory of history by developing ever more elaborate ad-hoc justifications. Skeptics also tend to see the creative interpretation of these historical cycle theories as akin to astrological readings. Like a true believer interpreting the ambiguous advice of a fortune-teller, attempts to "prove" a cyclical theory right often involve forms of confirmation bias that Michael Shermer calls "patternicity" - i.e. the tendency to find the tendency to find meaningful patterns in meaningless noise - and "agenticity" - i.e. the tendency to infuse patterns with meaning, intention, and agency.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_cycle_theory
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deferent_and_epicycle#Bad_science
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apophenia#Related_terms

In this discussion, we'll look at how attempts to understand America's current political conflicts using historical analogies & historical cycle theories can often go awry. We'll also consider if these comparative methods have any merit and might shed some light on our current situation, provided we're more careful in our analysis.

RELEVANT MATERIAL FROM PAST MEETUPS:

Since the 1st section of today's discussion involves the Civil War, it's worth noting that we had a meetup where we discussed misconceptions about the Civil War back in July entitled "Slavery & Pseudohistory" - see Part 2 of the outline where we looked at Neoconfederate "Lost Cause" apologetics & discussed whether or not the Civil War could've been averted with better negotiation, e.g. by lowering tariffs as Andrew Jackson did to end the Nullification Crisis in 1833 and/or paying slaveowner's to manumit their slaves as the British Empire also did in 1833. This is pertinent to today's discussion in terms of the federal government's ability to avoid civil unrest & civil war through negotiation & buying off most of the opposition.
https://www.meetup.com/Philly-Skeptics/events/djzwsrybckbjc/

The 2nd section of today's meetup deals with the collapse of the Weimar Republic and rise of the Nazis. Unfortunately, we haven't had a meetup on this subject, but we have discussed the political science research on racism & fascism. Back in October, we had a meetup entitled "Political Pseudoscience & Conservatism" and in Part 3 we looked at why claims that the Republicans are a "crypto-fascist" party and Trump an "evil mastermind" are overblown and fail to understand the much more common American political phenomena of nativism & populism. We also discussed how Thomas Woods' study that claimed "white racism elected Trump" merely measured something like "just world" beliefs - i.e. Trump voters were more likely to say blacks could get ahead through hard work, and didn't need affirmative action.
https://www.meetup.com/Philly-Skeptics/events/djzwsrybcnbgb/

In the 3rd section of today's meetup, we'll look at the Strauss-Howe generational theory & its connection to a period of crisis known as the "Fourth Turning". We had a meetup in Feb. 2020 entitled "Are Generational Theories Bunk?" and in Part 1 we took a critical look at the "pulse rate hypothesis" of generations, and we focused particularly on the Strauss-Howe generational theory as the best known example. We discussed why most sociologists tend to reject the rigid 20-year cycles coming of the "pulse rate hypothesis" and try to determine the chronological boundaries of generational cohorts through empirical analysis. They also use empirical analysis to try to determine the social & psychological tendencies "imprinted" on generational cohorts rather than assuming, as Strauss & Howe do, that a "generational archetype" can be deduced a priori from a cohort's position in a historical cycle.
https://www.meetup.com/Philly-Skeptics/events/fllzgrybcdbvb/

The Philly Political Agnostics looked at both the Strauss-Howe generational theory in a meetup in 2017 entitled "The Tactics & Patterns of Political Violence" that looked at how they were being used to try to forecast the dangers of political violence shortly after Trump took office. Asked whether America could be headed for a Second Civil War, and Howe said he doubted it but noted that the approach of the Civil War wasn't obvious to people at the time even when the Southern states seceded. War broke out suddenly when West Point grads wouldn't surrender Fort Sumter, and Howe theorized that something similar could happen today if California tried to secede and officers at Coronado Naval Base resisted. Howe said he thought Trump's election may have decreased the likelihood of civil war by easing the anger on the political right, and noted that stocks for guns & survival gear dropped after Trump was elected. https://www.meetup.com/Philadelphia-Political-Agnostics/events/239786314/

In the 4th section of this discussion, we'll look at Peter Turchin's "structural-demographic theory" (SDT) for predicting social conflict. Back in May of 2017, we had a meetup entitled "The Historical Study of Violence" where we looked at Steven Pinker's multi-factor explanation for the long-term decline in violence from his book "The Better Angels of Our Nature" and we looked at Nicholas Nassim Taleb's critique of Pinker's theory. Taleb essentially argued Pinker didn’t take proper account of the statistical nature of war as a historical phenomenon, specifically as a time series of events characterized by fat tails. Such processes naturally have long periods of quiescence, which get ripped apart by tumultuous upheavals. We also briefly look at Peter Turchin's SDT and compared it to Safa Motesharrei's HANDY model which both were featured in pop science articles around the same time predicting cycles an imminent civilizational collapse. We noted that the historian Joseph Tainter, famous for his study The Collapse of Complex Societies (1988), critiqued Motesharrei's model which blamed excessive resource extraction & wealth inequality the driving factors of collapse, arguing instead that "there is no evidence that elite consumption caused ancient societies to collapse." Rather, Tainter's research suggested collapses came from "diminishing returns on investments in social complexity".
https://www.meetup.com/Philly-Skeptics/events/239822337/

Turchin's long cycles of social integration & disintegration recall the thesis of the sociologist Robert Putnam's recent book "The Upswing: How America Came Together a Century Ago and How We Can Do It Again". Putnam argues that social trust was very low during the Gilded Age in the late 19th century but was rebuilt by progressive reforms and the New Deal, leading to a peak in social trust in the 1950s & early 1960s. The Philly Political Agnostics had a meetup that looked at Putnam's book back in December, and in the meetup description there's a link to Putnam's 1-hour interview with Jeffrey Rosen at the National Constitution Center:
https://www.meetup.com/Philadelphia-Political-Agnostics/events/275073010/

In terms of quantitive research on violent interstate & intrastate conflict, back in Sept. 2018 the Philly Political Agnostics had a meetup entitled "Can We Predict Geopolitical Conflict?" that looked at how to apply lessons from Philip Tetlock's "Good Judgement Project" (a tournament for geopolitical forecasters). In Part 3 of the discussion, they looked at how one might be able to predict when civil unrest could lead to a military coup or popular revolt, and in Part 4 they looked at how one might be able to predict when social tensions within a society could lead to a civil war or genocide. We talked about how the "Fragile States Index" is a good tool to use to start thinking about which states might suffer a coup or civil war, since it tracks 12 social, political & economic factors that contribute to a government's weakness & social volatility. The states that top this index are all poor, developing countries, with Israel being the highest-ranked wealthy, industrialized country.
https://www.meetup.com/Philadelphia-Political-Agnostics/events/254920242/

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DIRECTIONS ON HOW TO PREPARE FOR OUR DISCUSSION:

The videos & articles you see linked below are intended to give you a basic overview of some of the major debates over whether history repeats itself enough that "cycles" can be identified, and whether historical analogies can help us understand the likely outcome of the current political conflicts in America.

As usual, I certainly don't expect you to read all the articles & watch all the videos prior to attending our discussion. The easiest way to prepare for our discussion is to just watch the numbered videos linked under each section - the videos come to about about 41 minutes total. The articles marked with asterisks are just there to supply additional details. You can browse and look at whichever ones you want, but don't worry - we'll cover the stuff you missed in our discussion.

In terms of the discussion format, my general idea is that we'll address the topics in the order presented here. As you can see, I've listed some questions under each section heading to stimulate discussion. We'll try to address most of them. I figure we'll spend about 30 minutes on each section.

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I. CAN WE APPLY LESSONS FROM THE LEAD-UP TO THE CIVIL WAR TO MODERN-DAY AMERICA?

  • DOES THE FACT THAT THE U.S. IS MUCH WEALTHIER (PER CAPITA) IN 2021 THAN IN 1860 & HAS A MUCH SMALLER YOUTH COHORT THAT'S MOSTLY UNACCUSTOMED TO MILITARY SERVICE OR MANUAL LABOR MAKE A FULL-SCALE CIVIL WAR HIGHLY UNLIKELY?

  • IS THE CURRENT RED STATE VS BLUE STATE DIVIDE IN THE U.S. COMPARABLE TO THE NORTH-SOUTH DIVIDE IN 1860, OR DOES A COUNTY-LEVEL BREAKDOWN OF VOTING PATTERNS SHOW THAT TODAY'S POLITICAL SPLIT IS MOSTLY URBAN VS RURAL, WITH "PURPLE" SUBURBS STRADDLING THE DIVIDE? WOULD THIS MAKE THE CONVENTION WARFARE OF THE CIVIL WAR TOO DIFFICULT OR IMPOSSIBLE?

  • ARE THE STREET FIGHTS WE'VE SEEN BETWEEN RIGHT-WING & LEFT-WING GROUPS IN VARIOUS CITIES SINCE 2016 COMPARABLE TO THE "BLEEDING KANSAS" CLASHES IN THE 1850s? OR ARE THE MODERN STREET FIGHTS BASICALLY JUST "LARPING" BECAUSE THEY'RE NOT ABLE TO FORCE POLITICAL CHANGE - WHEREAS THE "BORDER RUFFIANS" AND "FREE-STATERS" FOUGHT TO DETERMINE KANSAS'S STATE AS A FREE OR SLAVE STATE?

  • COULD ANY OF THE VARIOUS FOILED PLOTS BY RADICAL GROUPS IN RECENT YEARS HAVE PULLED OFF SOMETHING LIKE THE MASSACRE AT HARPERS FERRY BY JOHN BROWN'S ABOLITIONIST GANG IN 1859, OR ARE THEY LESS CAPABLE AND/OR LESS COMMITTED?

  • IS THIS RECENT JUMP IN SALES OF ANTI-RACIST BOOKS LIKE ROBIN DIANGELO'S "WHITE FRAGILITY" OVER THE SUMMER OF 2020 COMPARABLE TO THE BESTSELLER STATUS OF HARRIER BEECHER STOWE'S "UNCLE TOM'S CABIN" IN THE 1850s, OR ARE MOST OF THESE NON-FICTION BOOKS TOO "HIGHBROW" & UNLIKELY TO ENERGIZE THE MASSES?

  • ARE THE QANON CONSPIRACY THEORIES ENERGIZING THE FAR-RIGHT THAT IN A WAY THAT'S COMPARABLE TO THE SOUTHERN PRO-SLAVERY PAMPHLETS IN THE 1850s? SINCE QANON'S PROMISED "DAY OF RECKONING" NEVER MATERIALIZED, WILL ITS FANS DISSIPATE?

  • SINCE SLAVERY WAS ABOLISHED, ALONG WITH JIM CROW SEGREGATION, HOW WOULD RACIAL CONFLICTS FACTOR INTO A HYPOTHETICAL CIVIL WAR IN THE 2020s? COULD IT DRIVE BLACK & HISPANIC MILITANTS TO FIGHT WHITE MILITIAS IN THE SUBURBS, OR IS IT MORE LIKELY TO LEAD TO UNREST WITHIN BLUE CITIES - I.E. FIGHTING WITH POLICE, LOOTING STORES & HARASSMENT OF WHITE "GENTRIFIERS"?

  • TO WHAT EXTENT WAS THE CIVIL WAR DRIVEN BY A CLASH BETWEEN TWO VERY DIFFERENT ECONOMIC SYSTEMS THAT BOTH SIDE WERE HEAVILY INVESTED IN (I.E. SLAVE-BASED AGRICULTURE VS INDUSTRIALIZATION)? IS THERE A SIMILAR SPLIT IN THE ECONOMIC SYSTEMS OF RED & BLUE AREAS TODAY (E.G. EXTRACTIVE INDUSTRIES & SKILLED TRADES VS SERVICES, TECH & FINANCE)? COULD "GREEN" POLICIES LIKE BANNING FRACKING TRIGGER OR AUTOMATION THAT DISPLACED BLUE-COLLAR WORKERS SPARK A RED REVOLT?

  • DID TRUMP CONTESTING BIDEN'S WIN IN 2020 MAKE THIS ELECTION (ALMOST) COMPARABLE TO THE 1860 ELECTION THAT PRECIPITATED SOUTHERN SECESSION? OR WAS THE DIFFERENT BECAUSE IT WAS A 4-WAY RACE WHERE LINCOLN WON ONLY 40% OF THE POPULAR VOTER?

  • HOW LIKELY IS IT THAT ANGER AT BIDEN'S PRESIDENCY COULD TRIGGER SOME RED STATES TO SECEDE FROM THE U.S., E.G. TEXAS WHERE A STATE REP RECENTLY FILED A BILL CALLING FOR A STATEWIDE REFERENDUM ON TEXAN INDEPENDENCE? OR ARE WE MORE LIKELY TO SEE STATE & LOCAL AUTHORITIES MERELY NULLIFYING FEDERAL POLICIES THEY OPPOSE THROUGH "SOFT SECESSION" (E.G. STATE-LEVEL DRUG LEGALIZATION, SANCTUARY CITIES FOR ILLEGAL IMMIGRANTS, 2ND AMENDMENT SANCTUARY LAWS)?

  • IF BIDEN SENDS FEDERAL AGENTS TO RED STATES TO ENFORCE NEW LAWS (E.G. ASSAULT WEAPONS BAN), COULD THIS TRIGGER ARMED RESISTANCE AS A "FORT SUMTER MOMENT"? OR IS THIS A FLAWED ANALOGY BECAUSE THE U.S. MILITARY IS UNLIKELY TO BECOME INVOLVED IN THESE SORTS OF CLASHES BETWEEN FEDERAL AGENTS & CIVILIANS, AND THE RED STATE POLICE WILL PROBABLY REFUSE TO COOPERATE?

1a) Andrej Preston, "Could the United States Have Another Civil War?" (video - 7:52 min.)
https://youtu.be/GoTlDiIOruI

1b) CGP Grey, "Can Texas Secede from the Union?" (video - 3:31 min.)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S92fTz_-kQE

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II. CAN WE APPLY LESSONS FROM THE COLLAPSE OF THE WEIMAR REPUBLIC INTO FASCISM TO MODERN-DAY AMERICA?

  • IN 2016, DID THE FACT THAT THE U.S. IS AN OLDER "CONSOLIDATED" DEMOCRACY, HADN'T RECENTLY LOST A MAJOR WAR, AND WASN'T FACING HYPERINFLATION OR A GREAT DEPRESSION MAKE THE WIDESPREAD COMPARISONS TO GERMANY'S UNSTABLE WEIMAR REPUBLIC IN THE 1920s-30s INVALID? OR DID THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT (EIU) DOWNGRADING THE U.S. TO A "FLAWED DEMOCRACY" IN 2016 SUGGEST THE COMPARISON WAS MORE APT THAN ONE MIGHT SUSPECT?

  • ARE THERE SIMILARITIES BETWEEN ADOLF HITLER'S VISION OF NATIONAL SOCIALISM & ETHNIC CLEANSING AND DONALD TRUMP'S NATIVIST POPULISM & ANTI-IMMIGRATION STANCE, OR ARE THE DIFFERENCES MORE STRIKING - E.G. TRUMP DEPORTED FEWER PEOPLE THAN OBAMA, DIDN'T START ANY NEW WARS, AND MOST OF HIS TRANSGRESSIONS OF LIBERAL DEMOCRATIC NORMS WERE MERELY RHETORICAL?

  • ARE THE STREET FIGHTS WE'VE SEEN BETWEEN RIGHT-WING & LEFT-WING GROUPS IN VARIOUS CITIES SINCE 2016 COMPARABLE TO THE CLASHES BETWEEN THE NAZI "BROWNSHIRTS" AND COMMUNIST "RED FRONT FIGHTERS" IN WEIMAR? WERE THE LATTER PAIR MORE DANGEROUS BECAUSE OF A HIGHER NUMBER OF WAR VETERANS, AND THUS ABLE TO CARVE OUT THE SHORT-LIVED BAVARIAN REPUBLIC & ORGANIZE THE BEER HALL PUTSCH?

  • WERE TRUMP'S TIRADES AGAINST THE "DEEP STATE" & "LYING PRESS" COMPARABLE TO HITLER'S CLASH WITH THE GERMAN ESTABLISHMENT, OR WERE THE POLITICAL ELITES OF WEIMAR MORE ACCOMMODATING TO HITLER & COOPERATED WITH HIS "GLEISCHALTUNG" (NAZIFICATION OF ALL INSTITUTIONS) WHEREAS TODAY THE ELITES ARE ALMOST UNIFORMLY ANTI-TRUMP?

  • IF TRUMP WAS TRULY AN ASPIRING DICTATOR, WHY DIDN'T HE TAKE MORE ADVANTAGE OF THE COVID CRISIS TO EXPAND FEDERAL POWERS, OR TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE SUMMER RIOTS TO DO MUCH BEYOND BRIEFLY SENDING SOME FEDERAL AGENTS TO PROTECT A COURTHOUSE IN PORTLAND?

  • IS THE U.S, CONSTITUTION'S SYSTEM OF CHECKS & BALANCES BETTER AT LIMITING EXECUTIVE POWERS THAN THE WEIMAR REPUBLIC'S CONSTITUTION, WHOSE "ARTICLE 48" ALLOWED THE PRESIDENT TO RULE BY EMERGENCY DECREE WITHOUT PARLIAMENTARY APPROVAL?

  • DOES THE FACT THAT TRUMP WAS SUCCESSFULLY VOTED OUT OF OFFICE DISPROVE THE CLAIM THAT HE HAD DICTATORIAL AMBITIONS, OR WAS THE STORMING OF THE CAPITOL A "SELF-COUP" THAT FAILED?

2a) Timothy Snyder, "Why it's useful to compare Trump to Hitler" (video - 1:33 min.)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VZ3XYsUKVTc

2b) Josh Scandlen, "Niall Ferguson: Why The US Will Not Become Weimar Germany" (video - 13:45 min, start at 8:02)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fjoP5nNZrfg&t=8m2s

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III. CAN STRAUSS-HOWE GENERATIONAL THEORY & ITS 80-YEAR "FOURTH TURNING" CYCLE HELP EXPLAIN OUR CURRENT POLITICAL CRISIS IN AMERICA?

  • DOES IT MAKE SENSE TO SEPARATE GENERATIONS INTO ROUGHLY 20-YEAR INCREMENTS, AS STRAUSS & HOWE DO, SINCE THAT'S ABOUT HOW LONG IT TAKES A PERSON TO REACH ADULTHOOD? OR WOULD IT MAKE MORE SENSE TO DETERMINE THE LENGTH OF GENERATIONS BASED ON THE RATE OF CULTURAL, ECONOMIC & TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE?

  • DID STRAUSS & HOWE MERELY TAKE THE PREVAILING POP SOCIOLOGY NARRATIVES ABOUT THE G.I., SILENT, BOOMER & GEN-X GENERATIONS & PROJECT IT FORWARD & BACKWARD ONTO ALL OF U.S. HISTORY, USING "APOPHENIA" (I.E. FALSE PATTERN RECOGNITION BASED ON CONFIRMATION BIAS) TO MAKE THEIR HISTORICAL COMPARISONS SEEM TO LINE UP?

  • WERE STRAUSS & HOWE WRONG TO PREDICT IN THEIR BOOK MILLENNIALS RISING (2000) THAT THE FOURTH TURNING PHASE OF THE HISTORICAL CYCLE WOULD CAUSE MILLENNIALS TO BE A "HERO GENERATION" LIKE THE G.I. GENERATION OF WWII & BE CIVIC-MINDED, OPTIMISTIC & SOMEWHAT CONSERVATIVE PROBLEM-SOLVERS? ARE MILLENNIALS CLOSER TO THE BOOMERS OF THE 1960s-'70s IN THEIR INDIVIDUALISM & LEFT-LEANING POLITICAL VIEWS?

  • IS STRAUSS & HOWE'S "GREY CHAMPION" ARCHETYPE TOO VAGUE, SINCE IT CAN & HAS BEEN APPLIED TO ANY OLDER BOOMER-GENERATION LEADER THAT SOME HOPED WOULD BE TRANSFORMATIONAL (E.G. GEORGE W. BUSH, JOHN McCAIN, RON PAUL, BARACK OBAMA, BERNIE SANDERS, DONALD TRUMP)?

  • WHY DIDN'T THE "WAR ON TERROR" & 2008 FINANCIAL CRISIS CREATE THE SENSE OF PURPOSE & NATIONAL UNITY FOR MILLENNIALS THAT WWII DID FOR THE G.I. GENERATION? IS IT BECAUSE THE WAR TURNED POLITICALLY DIVISIVE AFTER THE IRAQ INVASION AND DEBATES OVER TORTURE, GITMO & THE PATRIOT ACT, AND THE TARP BAILOUTS SEEMED TOO UNFAIR, LEADING TO THE TEA PARTY & OCCUPY MOVEMENT?

  • BY PREDICTING A "FOURTH TURNING" PHASE THAT LASTED AN ENTIRE GENERATION (2005-2025), DID STRAUSS & HOWE VIRTUALLY GUARANTEE THAT ONE OR MORE CRISES WOULD OCCUR IN THIS TIMESPAN AND APPEAR TO CONFIRM THEIR PREDICTION? WERE THE 5 POSSIBLE CRISES THEY DISCUSSED IN 1997 PRESCIENT (TERRORIST ATTACK IN NYC, PANDEMIC, WAR PROVOKED BY RUSSIA INVADING A FORMER SOVIET REPUBLIC, DEBT CRISIS, SECESSION), OR WERE ALL THESE POSSIBILITIES WIDELY DISCUSSED IN THE 1990s?

3a) Next Revolution NET, "Neil Howe discusses the Fourth Turning in 1997" (video - 8:53 min.)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KfhRNHWWFf0

3b) Charles @ Worthy House, "The Fourth Turning: What the Cycles of History Tell Us About..." (video - 9:33 min.)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-xIIn8sGcj8

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IV. CAN PETER TURCHIN'S "STRUCTURAL-DEMOGRAPHIC THEORY" & 50-YEAR CONFLICT CYCLES HELP EXPLAIN OUR CURRENT POLITICAL CRISIS IN AMERICA?

  • IS TURCHIN'S 50-YEAR "FATHERS & SONS CYCLE" PLAUSIBLE, DESPITE THE FACT THERE WAS NO SPIKE IN SOCIAL CONFLICT IN 1820 - THE SO-CALLED "ERA OF GOOD FEELINGS" - DUE TO BENEFICIAL ECONOMIC FACTORS? DOES INTER-GENERATIONAL AMNESIA ABOUT THE DOWNSIDES OF SOCIAL CONFLICT & VIOLENCE CAUSE A FLUCTUATION BETWEEN TWO GENERATIONAL ARCHETYPES, RADICALS & MODERATES?

  • HOW GOOD IS THE EVIDENCE FOR THE LONGER 200-300 YEAR "SECULAR CYCLES" OF SOCIAL INTEGRATION & DISINTEGRATION THAT TURCHIN FINDS IN AGRARIAN EMPIRES & ASCRIBES TO INTERNAL DEMOGRAPHIC & ECONOMIC FACTORS? IF THEY EXIST, WOULDN'T THEY BE SHORTER IN INDUSTRIAL SOCIETIES DUE TO MORE RAPID TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE?

  • TURCHIN POSITS A CYCLE OF "POPULAR IMMISERATION" BASED ON THE DEMOGRAPHIC THEORY OF THOMAS MALTHUS & DAVID RICARDO'S "IRON LAWS" OF WAGES & RENT, BUT ARE THESE FORCES STILL APPLICABLE TO INDUSTRIALIZED SOCIETIES WHERE FOOD PRODUCTION OUTSTRIPS POPULATION GROWTH? OR DO WE STILL SEE CYCLICAL FLUCTUATIONS IN WAGES & COST OF LIVING THAT PERIODICALLY ENRICH & IMPOVERISH THE WORKING CLASS, LIKE THE "GREAT COMPRESSION" (c. 1940-1975) AND THE "GREAT DIVERGENCE" (c.1975-TODAY)? TURCHIN THINKS THIS PROBLEM IS CAUSED BY "LABOR OVERSUPPLY", BUT SINCE INDUSTRIAL SOCIETIES BIRTH RATE ARE LOW, IS THIS CAUSED BY LOW-SKILL IMMIGRATION OR CHEAP IMPORTS?

  • TURCHIN ALSO POSITS A CYCLE OF "ELITE OVERPRODUCTION" THAT'S OFFSET FROM THE "POPULAR IMMISERATION" CYCLE, WITH THE ELITES INITIALLY PROFITING OFF THE CHEAP LABOR & HIGH RENT, ONLY TO SUCCUMB TO INTRA-ELITE CONFLICT WHEN THERE'S NOT ENOUGH CUSHY RENT-SEEKING POSITIONS AVAILABLE? IF SO, CAN WE SEE THIS TODAY PRIMARILY WITH LAW DEGREES & MBAs, WHICH TURCHIN FOCUSES ON, OR USELESS UNDERGRAD DEGREES WHICH MIRE GRADS IN DEBT & PREDISPOSE THEM TO RADICALISM?

  • DOES "ELITE OVERPRODUCTION" THEORY FAIL TO ACCOUNT FOR THE RISE OF "PRODUCTIVE ELITES" IN INDUSTRIAL SOCIETIES (I.E. ENTREPRENEURS & INVESTORS), AS OPPOSED TO THE MOSTLY PARASITIC ELITES OF AGRARIAN EMPIRES (I.E. KNIGHTS & CLERGY)?

  • DOES THE "ELITE OVERPRODUCTION" ALSO ROUGHLY ALIGN WITH THE STATE'S FISCAL CYCLE, WHERE A LEAN GOV'T DEVELOPS A BLOATED BUREAUCRACY OVER TIME AND EVENTUALLY RUNS INTO A DEBT CRISIS WHEN POPULAR IMMISERATION ERODES THE TAX BASE? CAN THE DEBT CRISIS BE AVOIDED BY TAXING ELITES & THEREBY REDUCE ELITE OVERPRODUCTION, OR ARE ELITES TOO ADEPT AT TAX AVOIDANCE? CAN THE U.S. AVOID A DEBT CRISIS BY PRINTING MONEY AS LONG AS THE DOLLAR IS THE WORLD'S RESERVE CURRENCY?

  • DOES TURCHIN'S 3-CYCLE THEORY OVERLOOK THE POSSIBILITY OF 50-YEAR "KONDRATIEV WAVES" BASED ON TECHNOLOGICAL INNOVATION? IF INNOVATION CAN GROWTH THE ECONOMY & STAY AHEAD OF ELITE OVERPRODUCTION & STATE SPENDING, CAN THIS FORESTALL A CRISIS INDEFINITELY?

  • DOES PETER TURCHIN'S "META-ETHNIC FRONTIER THEORY" THAT BUILDS ON IBN KHALDUN'S OBSERVATIONS ON WHY NOMADS OCCASIONALLY CONQUER AGRARIAN KINGDOMS (I.E. THOSE ON THE FRONTIER HAVE HIGHER "ASABIYYAH" - SOCIAL SOLIDARITY) MAKE SENSE? IF SO, DOES IT HAVE ANY BEARING ON MODERN INDUSTRIAL SOCIETIES WHICH TYPICALLY CAN'T BE CONQUERED BY PREINDUSTRIAL PEOPLES, BUT DO EXPERIENCE DISRUPTIONS IN SOCIAL SOLIDARITY FROM INFLUXES OF IMMIGRANTS (I.E. ROBERT PUTNAM'S WORK ON DIVERSITY & SOCIAL CAPITAL)?

  • DOES TURCHIN'S THEORY ASSUME THAT MOST OR ALL STATES HAVE SYNCHRONIZED CYCLES? IF NOT, WOULDN'T INTERACTION BETWEEN STATES (E.G. TRADE, IMMIGRATION, WARS) DISRUPT EACH OTHER'S CYCLES? AND WOULDN'T "BLACK SWAN EVENTS" LIKE THE 9/11 ATTACK OR THE COVID PANDEMIC PERIODICALLY DISRUPT THE CYCLES AS WELL?

  • ARE THEORIES ABOUT LONG-TERM TRENDS IN INDUSTRIAL SOCIETIES UNPROVABLE FOR NOW BECAUSE, UNLIKE AGRARIAN KINGDOMS THAT HAVE EXISTED FOR SEVERAL THOUSAND YEARS, INDUSTRIAL SOCIETIES JUST HAVEN'T EXISTED FOR VERY LONG (~200 YEARS) & THUS THE SMALL SAMPLE SIZE LEADS TO LOW STATISTICAL POWER?

4a) Laurie Laybourn-Langton w/ Daniel Hoyer, "The Cycles of Societies and Where We Find Ourselves" (video - 10:39 min, listen to 5:20)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Do-wcWNBedA

4b) Paul Zimmy Finn, "Politics, Ages of Discord, and the Merits of The Fourth Turning" (video - 18:53 min, start at 5:18 & listen to 12:30)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nIeguHOduzI&t=5m18s

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