Biweekly Discussion - Are We Approaching "The Singularity" or Stagnating?

Name: Biweekly Discussion - Are We Approaching "The Singularity" or Stagnating?
Start: 2021-02-28T13:00:00-05:00
End: 2021-02-28T15:00:00-05:00

Hosted By

Brian B.

Biweekly Discussion - Are We Approaching "The Singularity" or Stagnating?

Details

This is going to be an online meetup using Zoom. If you've never used Zoom before, don't worry — it's easy to use and free to join.

Here's the link to the event: https://us02web.zoom.us/j/81518408697?pwd=M0xJZnovZkMxVWFEN1daRi9WTmtPQT09

Meeting ID: 815 1840 8697
Passcode: 711253

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THE FUTURE OF TECHNOLOGY: SINGULARITY OR STAGNATION?

INTRODUCTION:

In our last discussion, we briefly covered the World Economic Forum's conception of a "Fourth Industrial Revolution" they're predicting in the near future that will involve a high degree of automation & worker displacement. I thought it would be useful to follow this up with a review of a topic we covered in a meetup back in 2019 - various theories about the future of technology.

This discussion will center around the opposing ideas of an approaching "technological singularity" -- i.e. the idea that advances in computing suggest we're on the cusp on a technological revolution that could dwarf the Industrial Revolution and either transform humans into gods or make us obsolete -- and the "technological stagnation hypothesis" -- i.e. the idea that technological innovation outside of the computer & communications industry has slowed remarkably since the mid 1970s, not only in the U.S. but worldwide.

First, we'll discuss how economists explain & measure innovation & economic growth, and we'll consider the tech industry's track record for predicting the rise of emerging technologies. Specifically, we'll look at the "Gartner hype cycle" and assess its accuracy.

Second, we'll discuss the idea of the technological singularity and the predictions in futurist Ray Kurzweil's book The Singularity Is Near (2005) and GMU economist Robin Hanson's Age of Em (2016). We'll discuss whether or not the predictions of artificial general intelligence being developed by 2030-2045 and/or whole-brain emulation by 2100 are realistic based on the current rate of progress in computer processing speeds and how this relates to trends like Moore's Law, Eroom's Law and Rock's Law.

Third, we'll look at the major arguments for the technological stagnation thesis made by the GMU economist Tyler Cowen in his book, The Great Stagnation (2011), as well as Paypal founder Peter Thiel in his book Zero to One (2014) and NWU economist Robert Gordon in The Rise and Fall of American Growth (2016). We'll discuss how the causes of stagnation can be either "demand-side" (i.e. consumers either have insufficient interest in new tech products or don't have enough money to spend on them) or "supply-side" (i.e. producers are having are harder time innovating, either due to physical constraints, corporate inefficiencies or government regulatory barriers).

Lastly, we'll finish up by looking at some intermediate scenarios that fall somewhere between stagnation & singularity. One of those scenarioa is what the MIT economist Andrew McAfee calls the "Great Decoupling" where automation leads to economic growth but also widespread technological unemployment & growing income inequality. We'll consider the relatively optimistic outcome described by the McAfee & his colleague Erik Brynjolfsson in their books Race Against the Machine (2011) and The Second Machine Age (2014) where we adapt to take advantage of automation & distribute its gains. We'll also look at the gloomier scenario predicted in Tyler Cowen's books Average Is Over (2013) and The Complacent Class (2017) where a failure to help workers adapt to automation leads to a crisis he calls the "Great Reset". (Note: Cowen's concept of the "Great Reset" predates the use of that term by the World Economic Forum for their COVID recovery plan, and they denote two completely different things.)

RELEVANT MATERIAL FROM PAST MEETUPS:

Back in June of 2017, we had a meetup entitled "What Does the Replication Crisis Mean For Science?" that addressed concerns that some fields of science are plagued by errors, statistical manipulation & academic fraud. This has some relevance for Part 1 of this discussion, where we'll analyze the link between the "ideas industry" and the innovation that leads to economic growth.
https://www.meetup.com/Philly-Skeptics/events/239904781/

The skeptic & rationalist communities have been split over the whether or not it's rational to believe that "the Singularity is near". Several prominent skeptics like Michael Shermer, Steven Pinker & Massimo Pigliucci have surmised there's a quasi-religious motive behind futurist visions of "mind uploading" & "artificial superintelligence," whereas several major rationalists like Robin Hanson & Eliezer Yudkowsky & New Atheist author Sam Harris take these developments more seriously. Back in January of 2019, we had a discussion that addressed questions about how rational self-identified skeptics & rationalists really are, as well as allegations that their atheism might make them psychologically vulnerable to secular forms of utopianism. This tangentially relates to Part 2 where we'll briefly address the argument that the Singularity is just the "rapture of the nerds":
https://www.meetup.com/Philly-Skeptics/events/lckqkqyzcbrb/

One of the arguments for the alleged technological stagnation we'll discuss in Part 3 is inadequate funding for basic research in the sciences and lackluster STEM education programs. We addressed these concerns in a meetup back in February of 2018 entitled "Science Activism & Science Policy".
https://www.meetup.com/Philly-Skeptics/events/246835989/

Also in June of 2017, the Philly Political Agnostics had a meetup entitled "Wage Stagnation, Poverty & Cost Disease" where they looked at debates among economists about why wages & the poverty rate have been fairly stagnant over the last 40 years or so and why the costs of housing, education & healthcare continue to rise. This is relevant to Part 4 of this discussion, where we'll try to assess whether our economy has become distorted in some way by technological change.
https://www.meetup.com/Philadelphia-Political-Agnostics/events/wxsktmywhblc/

HOW TO PREPARE FOR OUR DISCUSSION:

The articles & videos you see linked below are intended to give you a basic overview of the major points in the debates over technological progress. As usual, I certainly don't expect you to watch all the videos & read all the articles prior to attending our discussion. The easiest way to prepare for our discussion is to just watch the videos linked first under each topic, which come to about 58 minutes total. An hour isn't that much time to invest if you're really interested in these type of technology issues.

The articles linked underneath the videos should be considered supplemental. I've jotted down some notes that summarize their major points on the Message Board:
https://www.meetup.com/Philadelphia-Political-Agnostics/messages/boards/thread/50920321

In terms of the discussion format, my general idea is that we'll address the 4 topics in the order presented here and we'll spend about 30 minutes on each section.

I've listed some common questions under each section to help elucidate some of the major points of contention and stimulate discussion. We'll do our best to answer most of them.

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I. THE DIFFICULTIES IN EXPLAINING, PREDICTING & MEASURING INNOVATION:

WHAT DOES IT TAKE TO TURN SCIENTIFIC DISCOVERIES INTO INVENTIONS (I.E. PROTOTYPES), AND WHAT DOES IT TAKE TO TURN INVENTIONS INTO INNOVATION (I.E. MARKETABLE PRODUCTS & SERVICES)? WHAT SOCIAL & ECONOMIC FACTORS AFFECT THE TIME LAG IN THESE STEPS?
IS THE "SOLOW GROWTH MODEL" A GOOD WAY TO UNDERSTAND HOW INNOVATION DRIVES ECONOMIC GROWTH?
IS THE "IDEAS EQUATION" TABBAROCK PRESENTS ACCURATE? WHY DO MOST ECONOMISTS THINK IDEAS GENERATE INCREASING RATHER THAN DIMINISHING RETURNS?
IS AMARA'S LAW ACCURATE - I.E. DO WE TEND TO OVERESTIMATE THE EFFECT OF TECHNOLOGICAL INNOVATION IN THE SHORT RUN BUT UNDERESTIMATE IT IN THE LONG RUN?
WHAT CAN WE LEARN BY REVIEWING THE LAST 20 YEARS OF GARTNER'S TECHNOLOGY PREDICTIONS?
DO MOST NEW TECHNOLOGIES FOLLOW GARTNER'S "HYPE CYCLE", OR DO MANY OF THEM SKIP THE PEAK AND/OR TROUGH PHASES?
ARE OTHER MODELS OF INNOVATION LIKE NASA'S "TECHNOLOGY READINESS LEVELS" MORE ACCURATE?

1A) Alex Tabbarock, "Intro to the Solow Model of Economic Growth" (5:16 min.)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eVAS-t83Tx0

This video introduces a simplified version of the Solow Growth Model that explains long-term economic growth or "total output" (Y) as a function of several "input" variables: Labor (L), Education (e), Physical Capital (K), and Ideas (A). The economy can grow by increasing any of these 4 variables.

This video is the first part of a series that explores all of the variables. The rest of the series goes into the details of why capital accumulation (growth of "K") can skyrocket under good conditions in underdeveloped countries but eventually runs into diminishing returns. A portion of economic output has to be reinvested to repair or replace depreciating capital. Another portion of output has to be invested to sustain & eventually replace the labor supply, which "depreciates" as people age & retire and a new generation of new workers needs to be educated to take their place. The economy grows until all of the economic output is being reinvested into capital or labor -- at that point, the economy reaches a "steady state" and growth stops.

Ideas are special in this equation because they increase productivity, allowing us to get more output for the same inputs of capital and labor. If you change the "A" variable in the Solow model from 1 to 2, this means a doubling of productivity. This shifts the entire output curve upward. When output doubles, so does investment. Once investment comes in faster than depreciation, we end up accumulating capital once again. Thus, the economy keeps growing, which further boosts output. If ideas continually improve and the output curve keeps shifting upward, this will continually increase investment and allow us to keep to the left of the steady state and the economy (and perhaps the population) keeps growing. Growth at the cutting edge is determined by two things: (1) how fast new ideas are formed and (2) how much those ideas increase productivity.

1B) Alex Tabbarock, "The Idea Equation" (6:06 min.)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4zhPbYYaV5Y

This video introduces the "Idea Equation": Innovation = Population (% devoted to research) x Incentives (from Markets & Institutions) x Ideas/Hour (i.e. Researcher Productivity). According to this model, technological progress can result from an increase in any of these factors. The video notes that Ideas (A) is the most mysterious factor, and it's not clear if ideas eventually run into diminishing returns as well. There’s evidence that idea creation is becoming more expensive in certain fields. On the other hand, we’re also seeing new technology that makes idea creation easier—things like faster computers, the Internet, and online education.

IGM Experts, "Increasing Returns: Are ideas nonrival, so increasing returns to scale is an essential feature of technological change in a market economy?" (poll of economists - 85% agree, 9% uncertain, 6% disagree)
http://www.igmchicago.org/surveys/increasing-returns
Ben Miller, "Is Technological Change Speeding Up? How Can You Tell?" (short article)
http://www.innovationfiles.org/is-technological-change-speeding-up-how-can-you-tell/
Michael Mullany, "8 Lessons from 20 Years of Hype Cycles" (medium-length blog post)
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/8-lessons-from-20-years-hype-cycles-michael-mullany

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II. THE TECHNOLOGICAL SINGULARITY THESIS:

ARE SKEPTICS RIGHT TO LUMP PREDICTIONS OF ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE & MIND UPLOADING INTO THE SAME CLASS OF "EXTRAORDINARY CLAIMS" AS PARANORMAL PHENOMENA THAT SHOULD REQUIRE "EXTRAORDINARY EVIDENCE"?
HOW WELL HAVE RAY KURZEIL'S PREDICTIONS ABOUT TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENTS FROM THE SINGULARITY IS NEAR (2005) FARED? WHY DOES HE SEEMS TO BE BETTER AT PREDICTING PROTOTYPES AS OPPOSED TO WIDESPREAD ADOPTION?
IS MOORE'S LAW STILL OPERATING, I.E. ARE THE # OF TRANSISTORS ON A MICROCHIP STILL DOUBLING ABOUT EVERY 2 YEARS, OR HAVE WE REACHED A PHYSICAL LIMIT?
COULD QUANTUM COMPUTING ALLOW COMPUTER SPEEDS TO INCREASE AFTER THE END OF MOORE'S LAW?
EVEN IF MOORE'S LAW CONTINUES, WILL "ROCK'S LAW" - I.E. THE DOUBLING OF SEMICONDUCTOR PLANT COSTS EVERY 4 YEARS - MAKING INNOVATION COST-PROHIBITIVE?
HOW POWERFUL DO COMPUTERS HAVE TO BE TO EQUAL THE HUMAN BRAIN? OR IS "ARTIFICIAL GENERAL INTELLIGENCE" (AGI) MORE OF A SOFTWARE PROBLEM?
WHAT ARE THE CHANCES THAT WE DEVELOP AGI BY 2030 & A RECURSIVELY SELF-IMPROVING AGI BY 2045 (I.E. "THE SINGULARITY") AS KURZWEIL PREDICTS?
WHY DOES ROBIN HANSON THINK WHOLE BRAIN EMULATION (EMs) WILL PRECEDE AGI? IS HIS PREDICTION OF EMs IN ABOUT 100 YEARS REALISTIC?
ARE SINGULATARIANS FOCUSING TOO MUCH ON INFORMATION PROCESSING & OVERLOOKING "WHITE'S LAW" - I.E. CULTURAL DEVELOPMENT = ENERGY CAPTURE x TECHNICAL EFFICIENCY? IS DEVELOPING AGI ENOUGH TO CAUSE EXPONENTIAL ECONOMIC GROWTH, OR DO WE NEED MORE POWERFUL TYPES OF ENERGY (E.G. FUSION, SPACE-BASED SOLAR) & PRODUCTION TECHNOLOGIES (E.G. DIGITAL MANUFACTURING, NANOFACTORIES) AS WELL?
WHY AREN'T ADVANCES IN GENETICS LEADING TO ACCELERATING RETURNS IN MEDICINE? WHAT'S CAUSING "EROOM'S LAW" - I.E. THE DOUBLING OF THE COST OF DRUG DISCOVERY EVERY 9 YEARS?

Joe Scott, "Ray Kurzweil's Craziest Predictions About The Future" (12:16 min.)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YaZRx7qoYdU

Ray Kurzweil, "The Accelerating Power of Technology" (2009 TED Talk transcript w/ video - 22:44 min.)
https://www.ted.com/talks/ray_kurzweil_the_accelerating_power_of_technology/transcript?language=en
Eliezer Yudkowsky, "Undiscriminating Skepticism" (short blog post)
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Jko7pt7MwwTBrfG3A/undiscriminating-skepticism
Pawel Sysiak, "When Will The First Machine Become Superintelligent?"(polls of AI Experts)
https://medium.com/ai-revolution/when-will-the-first-machine-become-superintelligent-ae5a6f128503
Paul Feakins, "The Singularity is Near: How Kurzweil's Predictions Are Faring [in 2017]" (medium-length blog post)
https://www.antropy.co.uk/blog/the-singularity-is-near-how-kurzweils-predictions-are-faring/
YCombinator Forum, "How Ray Kurzweil’s 1998 predictions about 2019 are faring" (discussion of article at militantfuturist.com)
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25610275
Daniel C. Elton, "Moore's Law - Kurzweil vs. Thiel" (medium-length blog post)
http://www.moreisdifferent.com/2015/10/19/moores-law/
Robin Hanson, "Aaronson on Singularity" (short blog post)
http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/09/aaronson-on-sin.html
Robin Hanson, "Tyler Says Never Ems" (short blog post)
http://www.overcomingbias.com/2016/06/tyler-says-never-ems.html

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III. THE GREAT STAGNATION THESIS:

HAS TECHNOLOGICAL PROGRESS REALLY STAGNATED WORLDWIDE SINCE THE MID 1970S?
WHAT FACTORS MIGHT BE BEHIND SUCH A STAGNATION?
IS ROBERT GORDON RIGHT TO ATTRIBUTE TECHNOLOGICAL STAGNATION IN THE U.S TO DEMOGRAPHIC DECLINE, RISING COSTS IN HIGHER EDUCATION, THE GROWING NATIONAL DEBT & INEQUALITY? DO DEVELOPED NATIONS THAT HAVE KEPT THE LATTER 3 FACTORS IN CHECK HAVE MORE TECH INNOVATION?
COULD TYLER COWEN BE RIGHT THAT WE PICKED ALL THE "LOW-HANGING FRUIT" (FREE LAND, MASS LITERACY, INDUSTRIALIZATION) IN THE 19th & EARLY 20th CENTURIES, AND THE LACK OF OTHER EASY IMPROVEMENTS HAS MADE STAGNATION INEVITABLE?
COULD PETER THIEL BE RIGHT THAT STAGNATION HAS MORE TO DO WITH OVER-REGULATION OF INDUSTRY, AND THE TECH SECTOR WAS ABLE TO INNOVATE BECAUSE REGULATORS HADN'T RESTRICTED THEM?
HAVE REAL WAGES STAGNATED SINCE THE 1970s, AND IF SO IS THIS CONNECTED TO TECHNOLOGICAL STAGNATION?
IF WAGES HAVE STAGNATED, COULD THIS CAUSE THE DEMAND-SIDE "SECULAR STAGNATION" THAT LARRY SUMMERS HAS WARNED ABOUT?
DOES JOSE LUIS RICON MAKE A GOOD CASE THAT TECHNOLOGICAL PROGRESS HAS ACTUALLY CONTINUED SINCE THE 1970s?

Robert Gordon, "The Death of Innovation. The End of Growth" (video - 12:14 min.)
https://www.ted.com/talks/robert_gordon_the_death_of_innovation_the_end_of_growth

Jonathan Fowler & Elizabeth Rood, "Bits Versus Stuff: Peter Thiel Asks Why Innovation Has Stalled" (medium-length article, video - 21:43 min.)
http://bigthink.com/collective-intelligence/peter-thiel-what-happened-to-innovation
IGM Experts, "Innovation and Growth: Will future innovations worldwide not be transformational enough to promote sustained per-capita economic growth rates in the U.S. and western Europe over the next century as high as those over the past 150 years?" (poll of economists - 7% agree, 59% uncertain, 34% disagree)
https://www.igmchicago.org/surveys/innovation-and-growth/
Tyler Cowen, "Is Innovation Over? The Case Against Pessimism"
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/reviews/review-essay/2016-01-28/innovation-over
Noah Smith, "A Tale of Two Stagnations" (short article)
https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2016-10-20/a-tale-of-two-stagnations
José Luis Ricón,"No Great Technological Stagnation" (long blog post)
https://nintil.com/2016/04/25/no-great-technological-stagnation/
Scott Alexander, "Is Science Slowing Down?" (long blog post)
https://slatestarcodex.com/2018/11/26/is-science-slowing-down-2/
Kemal Derviş, "Have we dodged the secular stagnation bullet?"
https://www.brookings.edu/opinions/have-we-dodged-the-secular-stagnation-bullet/

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IV. INTERMEDIATE SCENARIOS - THE "GREAT DECOUPLING" & THE "GREAT RESET":

WHAT DOES OUR NEAR FUTURE (CIRCA 2030-2050) LOOK LIKE IF WE EXPERIENCE MODERATE GROWTH (~2% PER YR.) RATHER THAN A SINGULARITY OR STAGNATION?
ARE ANDREW McAFEE & ERIK BRYNJOLFSSON RIGHT THAT THE "PRODUCTIVITY PARADOX" (LAGGING TFP GROWTH OVER THE PAST 30 YEARS DESPITE INCREASED COMPUTERIZATION & AUTOMATION) IS MOSTLY DUE TO LACK OF EFFICIENT IMPLEMENTATION?
HAVE DIFFICULTIES IN MEASURING THE BENEFITS OF FREE CONTENT ON THE INTERNET LED ECONOMISTS TO UNDERESTIMATE GROWTH?
HAVE WAGES REALLY STAGNATED SINCE THE 1970s? IF SO, IS IT BECAUSE MOST OF THE GAINS FROM GROWTH HAVE GONE TO THE TOP 1% OF EARNERS?
HOW BAD COULD INCOME INEQUALITY & TECHNOLOGICAL UNEMPLOYMENT GET ONCE MOST SERVICE JOBS CAN BE AUTOMATED?
COULD AUTOMATION LEAD TO MORE "DECOUPLING", I.E. ECONOMIC GROWTH BUT WITH WAGE STAGNATION & RISING UNEMPLOYMENT LEADING TOWARDS A CRISIS?
WOULDN'T STAGNANT WAGES & INCREASING UNEMPLOYMENT LEAD TO A DECLINE IN CONSUMER DEMAND, WHICH IN TURN WOULD REDUCE MANUFACTURER PROFITS & SLOW DOWN AUTOMATION?
IF NOAH SMITH IS RIGHT & PRODUCTIVITY HAS INCREASED IN MANUFACTURING BUT STAGNATED IN THE SERVICE SECTOR, DOES THIS ALLOW US TO MAKE SENSE OF THE TECHNOLOGICAL PROGRESS JOSÉ LUIS RICÓN DEMONSTRATED?
WHY DIDN'T COMPUTERIZATION LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN PRODUCTIVITY IN THE SERVICE SECTOR OVER THE LAST 30 YEARS?

Erik Brynjolfsson, "The Key to Growth? Race With the Machines" (11:56 min.)
https://www.ted.com/talks/erik_brynjolfsson_the_key_to_growth_race_em_with_em_the_machines

IGM Experts, "Missing Productivity Growth: Is the biggest reason for the measured slowdown in US productivity growth since the mid-2000s that productivity increases have gone mismeasured, including new and better products and services that have been insufficiently captured by real output data?" (poll of economists - 8% agree, 38% uncertain, 54% disagree)
http://www.igmchicago.org/surveys/missing-productivity-growth
James Pethokoukis w/ Tyler Cowen, "Will robots terminate the US middle class? A Q&A with Tyler Cowen, author of Average is Over" (medium-length article)
http://www.aei.org/publication/will-robots-terminate-the-us-middle-class-a-qa-with-tyler-cowen-author-of-average-is-over/
Elisabeth Jacobs, "Not Afraid of Tyler Cowen? You will be… A Review of 'Average is Over: Powering America Beyond the Age of the Great Stagnation'"
https://www.brookings.edu/blog/social-mobility-memos/2013/10/15/not-afraid-of-tyler-cowen-you-will-be-a-review-of-average-is-over-powering-america-beyond-the-age-of-the-great-stagnation/
Noah Smith, "About that TFP Stagnation..." (short blog post)
http://noahpinionblog.blogspot.com/2011/04/tfp-and-great-stagnation.html

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Biweekly Discussion - Are We Approaching "The Singularity" or Stagnating?