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Biweekly Discussion - Intelligence Failures vs Conspiracy Theories

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Brian B.
Biweekly Discussion - Intelligence Failures vs Conspiracy Theories

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We're currently hosting our discussions at Café Walnut, near the corner of 7th & Walnut in Olde City, just across the street from Washington Square Park. The cafe's entrance is below street level down some stairs, which can be confusing if it's your first time. Our group meets in the large room upstairs.

Since we're using the cafe's space, they ask that each person attending the meetup at least purchase a drink or snack. Please don't bring any food or drinks from outside. If you're hungry enough to eat a meal, they have more substantial fare such as salads, soups & sandwiches which are pretty good and their prices are reasonable.

The cafe is fairly easy to get to if you're using public transit. With SEPTA, take the Market-Frankford Line & get off at the 5th Street Station (corner of 5th & Market), and walk 2 blocks south on 5th and then turn right on Walnut Street and walk 2 blocks west. With PATCO, just get off at the 9th-10th & Locust stop and walk 3 blocks east & 1 block north. For those who are driving, parking in the neighborhood can be tough to find. If you can't find a spot on the street, I'd suggest parking in the Washington Square parking deck at 249 S 6th Street which is just a half block away.

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INTELLIGENCE FAILURES, BAD POLICIES & CONSPIRACY THEORIES:

EVALUATING THE COMPETING EXPLANATIONS FOR U.S. FOREIGN POLICY DEBACLES IN THE MIDDLE EAST

INTRODUCTION:

The skeptic community often takes a "generalist" approach to debunking conspiracy theories, i.e. they look for general rules that govern their plausibility, such as the Bayesian interpretation of "Hanlon's Razor". For those who don't remember, Hanlon's Razor is a special version of Occam's Razor which states that it's more parsimonious to "never attribute to malice what can adequately be explained by stupidity [or incompetence]". This principle doesn't preclude the possibility of conspiracies, but it leads one to assume that bad outcomes in both domestic & foreign policy are more likely to be accidents rather than conspiracies. To those familiar with military parlance, Hanlon's Razor ties in with beliefs about "Murphy's law" and the "fog of war" as the causes of failure in military operations.

This discussion will look at the notion of "intelligence failures" in what's known as the "intelligence cycle" — the process by which government agencies tasked with monitoring foreign actors collect, analyze, process, and disseminate critical information. See the Wikipedia entry on intelligence failure for a basic overview:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Failure_in_the_intelligence_cycle

Intelligence agencies cannot typically authorize military actions independently, so this opens up the possibility for "policy failures" when they give the President & his national security advisors accurate information but the administration makes the wrong decision.

The idea that bad outcomes in foreign policy generally stem from "intelligence failures" and "policy failures" conflicts with the idea — prevalent among conspiracy theorists — that the U.S. government is far too powerful, well-informed & well-organized to suffer from these types of problems. Conspiracy theorists typically believe that many of the terror attacks, military coups & popular uprisings we see on the news were actually engineered by the CIA or other intelligence agencies, the at the behest of the military-industrial complex & policy elites (sometimes collectively referred to as the "deep state") who have a hidden agenda.

Conspiracy theories about attacks on the US typically come in 3 varieties: (1) belief that the US orchestrated a "false flag" attack on itself to justify retaliation, and (2) belief that the US allowed an enemy attack on "cannon fodder" to justify retaliation, (3) belief that the US created a "hoax" - i.e. falsely reported an attack that never occurred - to justify retaliation. In the context of the 9/11 attacks, the first 2 types of conspiracy theories are known as the "MIHOP" (Made It Happen On Purpose) and "LIHOP" (Let It Happen On Purpose) theories.

Of course, the elaborate MIHOP theories about 9/11 being an "inside job" with "controlled demolition" of the Twin Towers and a missile hitting the Pentagon are relatively easy to debunk. For a comprehensive debunking, see Popular Mechanics & Skeptic Magazine's coverage:
https://www.popularmechanics.com/9-11-conspiracy-theories/
https://www.skeptic.com/eskeptic/06-09-11/
https://www.skeptic.com/eskeptic/11-09-07/#feature

However, some of the LIHOP conspiracy theories for 9/11 are on their face slightly more plausible, and believers in all 3 types of conspiracy theories for other major attacks & threats to the US can muster some circumstantial evidence.

There's credible evidence that points to "neoimperialist" goals in certain US policy circles & a willingness to deceive the public. For example, proponents can point to policy papers in the public domain that support their claims of an only semi-secret plan to overthrow hostile regimes & establish U.S. hegemony in the Middle East. The classic example is the report published in 2000 by a neoconservative think tank, Project for a New American Century (PNAC), that presciently noted that the process of expanding America's military "is likely to be a long one, absent some catastrophic and catalyzing event – like a new Pearl Harbor."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_for_the_New_American_Century#Rebuilding_America's_Defenses_2

Another oft-cited proof of elaborate neocon plans for the Middle East comes from retired General Wesley Clark, who claimed in 2007 that during a visit to the Pentagon in the autumn of 2001 shortly after 9/11, an unnamed senior general told him that the Bush administration had a confidential paper proposing a series of regime change operations over 5 years in 7 countries: Iraq, Syria, Somalia, Libya, Sudan, Iran & Yemen.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wesley_Clark#Post-2004_campaign

During Barack Obama's presidency, his deputy national security advisor Ben Rhodes continually complained about the intrasigence of foreign policy advisors in DC think tanks, who he referred to collectively as "the Blob". Ben Rhodes' contrarian views caused quite stir when he was interviewed by David Semuels for a NY Times magazine profile, and he laid out all the tricks Obama administration had to play to get the Iran nuclear deal passed over the objections from DC foreign policy hawks who were hell-bent on confrontation with Tehran.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ben_Rhodes_(White_House_staffer)#Controversies

Since Trump's election, many of his supporters with isolationist or "America First" views on foreign policy have worried that if he tries to deviate too much from the interventionism that characterizes the bipartisan foreign policy consensus of the "deep state" (their somewhat analogous term for Rhodes' "Blob"), he'll be framed for something to justify his impeachment. This has come to a head recently with both Democrats & many Republicans in the House voting 354 to 60 to condemn Trump's withdrawal of US troops from Kurdish strongholds in northeastern Syria.

In this meetup, we'll look at 4 common examples of what mainstream scholars describe as failures of U.S. intelligence and/or poor decision-making: (1) the 9/11 attacks, (2) the 2003 Iraq invasion, (3) the Libyan Civil War, and (4) the Syrian Civil War. We'll contrast the "intelligence failure" & "policy failure" explanations of these events with counter-arguments that these events were in fact the intentional result of the U.S. deep state attempting to dominate the Middle East by deposing hostile regimes, establishing puppet states & controlling the flow of oil & other strategic resources.

RELATED MATERIAL FROM PAST MEETUPS:

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DIRECTIONS ON HOW TO PREPARE FOR OUR DISCUSSION:

The videos & articles you see linked below are intended to give you a basic overview of the conflicting theories about 9/11, the Iraq War, and the civil wars in Libya & Syria. As usual, I certainly don't expect you to read all the articles & watch all the videos prior to attending our discussion. The easiest way to prepare for our discussion is to just watch the videos linked under each section - the videos come to about 47 minutes total. The articles marked with asterisks are just there to supply additional details. You can browse and look at whichever ones you want.

In terms of the discussion format, my general idea is that we'll address the topics in the order presented here. I figure we'll spend about 30 minutes on each section.

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I. THE 9/11 ATTACKS & THE "LIHOP" THEORY:

  • DID U.S. INTELLIGENCE FAIL TO FORESEE THE 9/11 ATTACKS? IF SO, WAS THIS DUE TO OVERCOLLECTION OF DATA BY THE NSA AND/OR INADEQUATE INTELLIGENCE SHARING BETWEEN THE NSA, CIA & FBI?
  • DID THE BUSH ADMINISTRATION IGNORE MULTIPLE WARNINGS OF AN IMPENDING ATTACK EARLIER IN 2001? IF SO, WAS THIS MORE LIKELY TO BE DUE TO CONFUSION ABOUT WHEN & WHERE EXACTLY THE ATTACK WOULD OCCUR, OR NEGLECT OF THE WARNINGS DUE TO ISSUES THAT SEEMED MORE PRESSING, OR BECAUSE BUSH DECIDED TO LET THE 9/11 ATTACKS HAPPEN TO CREATE A PRETEXT FOR WAR?
  • WHY DIDN'T BUSH APPEAR SURPRISED WHEN HE WAS FIRST INFORMED OF THE 2nd WTC ATTACK & CONTINUE READING A BOOK TO SCHOOL CHILDREN FOR ANOTHER 7 MINUTES?
  • WHY DID THE BUSH ADMINISTRATION LET MANY SAUDIS LEAVE THE U.S. RIGHT AFTER THE 9/11 ATTACKS, INCLUDING BIN LADEN FAMILY MEMBERS?
  • WAS BUSH SO FRIENDLY WITH PROMINENT SAUDIS LIKE BANDAR BIN SULTAN THAT HE MIGHT'VE BEEN WILLING TO OVERLOOK THEIR ROLE IN THE 9/11 ATTACKS?
  • DID THE 28 REDACTED PAGES IN THE 9/11 REPORT SHOW THERE IS EVIDENCE TO SUGGEST THE SAUDI GOV'T AIDED AL-QAEDA IN PLANNING THE ATTACKS? IF NOT, DOES IT SUGGEST THAT SOME PROMINENT SAUDIS MIGHT HAVE "GONE ROGUE" & HAD SECRET DEALINGS WITH AL-QAEDA?

1a) Michael Hayden vs Glenn Greenwald, "9/11 as an intelligence failure" (video - 6:17 min.)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lV3CN7pNGb8

1b) David Pakman, "Docs Show Bush Warned Numerous Times Before 9/11, Ignored Warnings" (video - 3:53 min, listen to 3:25)
https://youtu.be/N6dE3RTX9bY

1c) Trace Dominguez, "What Was Saudi Arabia's Role In 9/11?" (video - 4:35 min.)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wBs19Jkil5Q

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II. THE 2003 IRAQ INVASION & SADDAM'S ALLEGED WMDs & AL-QAEDA TIES:

  • WHAT DID WE KNOW ABOUT IRAQ'S WMD PROGRAMS IN THE 1990s? DID UN WEAPONS INSPECTORS THINK HE WAS HIDING WMDs? WHY WAS SADDAM SO EVASIVE IF HE HAD NOTHING TO HIDE?
  • WAS THE FACT THAT SADDAM WAS IMPORTING ALUMINUM TUBES GOOD EVIDENCE THAT HE WAS USING THEM FOR A URANIUM CENTRIFUGE, OR WAS IT MORE LIKELY HE WAS USING THEM FOR CONVENTIONAL ROCKETS?
  • WERE THE DOCUMENTS INDICATING THAT SADDAM WAS TRYING TO ACQUIRE YELLOW CAKE URANIUM FROM NIGER A FORGERY? IF SO, DID THE BUSH ADMINISTRATION KNOW THIS AT THE TIME?
  • DID SCOOTER LIBBY "OUT" VALERIE PLAME AS A CIA AGENT IN RETALIATION FOR HER HUSBAND, JOE WILSON, QUESTIONING THE INTEL ON SADDAM'S WMD PROGRAM?
  • DOES THE DOWNING STREET MEMO SUGGEST THAT BRITISH INTELLIGENCE KNEW SADDAM DIDN'T HAVE WMDs, OR MERELY THAT THEY WEREN'T AS SURE AS TONY BLAIR SUGGESTED PUBLICLY?
  • DOES THE EVIDENCE SUGGEST THAT BUSH INTENTIONALLY LIED ABOUT SADDAM HAVING WMDs, OR WAS THIS AN INTELLIGENCE FAILURE CREATED BY CONFIRMATION BIAS & MOTIVATED REASONING?
  • IS THERE EVIDENCE THAT SADDAM SPONSORED TERRORIST GROUPS? IF SO, WHICH ONES?
  • DID TERRORISTS UNDERGO AIRPLANE HIJACKING TRAINING AT SALMAN PAK IN IRAQ IN THE LATE 1990s?
  • DID ONE OF THE 9/11 HIJACKERS, MOHAMED ATTA, MEET WITH IRAQI INTELLIGENCE IN PRAGUE IN APR. 2001?
  • DID SADDAM HAVE ANY TIES TO AL-QAEDA? IF NOT, WAS THIS AN INTELLIGENCE FAILURE, OR DID THE BUSH ADMINISTRATION SIMPLY LIE?
  • IS THERE EVIDENCE THAT DICK CHENEY PROMOTED THE IRAQ WAR TO BENEFIT HALIBURTON & US OIL COMPANIES?

2a) Andrew Roberts, "Why America Invaded Iraq" (video - 5:44 min.)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T2tbpUqNwRU

2b) RT, "'We knew Iraq had no WMDs' - former CIA analyst [Ray McGovern]" (video - 5:32 min.)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A_Um-BsAi4M

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III. THE LIBYAN CIVIL WAR & BENGHAZI:

  • DID THE U.S. WANT TO GET RID OF GADDAFI BECAUSE HE WAS MASSACRING LIBYAN CIVILIANS, OR BECAUSE HE WAS ABOUT TO LAUNCH A GOLD-BACKED PAN-AFRICAN CURRENCY THAT WOULD DISPLACE THE DOLLAR AS A MAJOR WORLD RESERVE CURRENCY?
  • WAS THERE ANY TRUTH TO REPORTS THAT GADDAFI WAS RECRUITING "AFRICAN MERCENARIES" AND DISPENSING VIAGRA TO HIS TROOPS TO FACILITATE MASS RAPE, OR WAS THIS JUST WESTERN WAR PROPAGANDA CREATED TO JUSTIFY INTERVENTION?
  • WAS LIBYA BECOMING A FAILED STATE & DEVOLVING INTO CIVIL WAR AFTER GADDAFI'S DEATH PREDICTABLE OR AN UNFORESEEABLE ACCIDENT?
  • DID THE CIA FAIL TO FORESEE THE 2012 BENGHAZI ATTACK, OR WERE REQUESTS FOR MORE SECURITY IGNORED?
  • WAS IT PRECIPITATED BY AN ANTI-MUSLIM VIDEO OR CIA ARMS SMUGGLING FROM LIBYA TO SYRIA?
  • WERE POTENTIAL RESCUERS TOLD TO "STAND DOWN"? IF SO, WHY? IF NOT, WHY WOULD ANYONE THINK THIS?
  • WERE THE BENGHAZI HEARINGS JUST INTENDED TO CREATE A "PSEUDO-SCANDAL" FOR REPUBLICANS TO TARNISH HILLARY CLINTON'S REPUTATION?

3a) RT, "Failed state of Libya ‘serves the purposes of the US’ - foreign policy analyst [Paul Craig Roberts]" (video - 5:16 min.)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hh7P2w8u1qk

3b) Hank Green, "Benghazi Explained" (video - 9:26 min, listen to 7:30)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=btlqXbH1mCM

3c) Wochit News, "Benghazi Report Leaves Weapon Trafficking A Question Mark" (video - 1:32 min.)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7e2wSGZW90w

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IV. THE SYRIAN CIVIL WAR & THE RISE OF ISIS:

  • ARE RUSSIA & NATO INTERESTED IN SYRIA MOSTLY DUE TO COMPETING PROPOSALS FOR OIL PIPELINES & THE DESIRE TO USE OIL TO GAIN LEVERAGE IN EUROPE?
  • IS IT POSSIBLE THAT ASSAD GOT HIS CHEMICAL WEAPONS FROM SADDAM HUSSEIN SHORTLY BEFORE THE 2003 IRAQ INVASION?
  • WAS NOT ENFORCING OBAMA'S "RED LINE" & SETTLING FOR (ALLEGED) DISPOSAL OF ASSAD'S CHEMICAL WEAPONS IN 2013 AN INTELLIGENCE FAILURE, A POLICY FAILURE, OR A SMART MOVE TO AVOID A PROXY WAR WITH RUSSIA THAT PARTIALLY BACKFIRED?
  • ARE DIFFICULTIES IN ESTABLISHING THE SOURCE OF CHEMICAL ATTACKS IN SYRIA AN INTELLIGENCE FAILURE? OR DO WE KNOW THE CHEMICAL ATTACKS CAME FROM ASSAD & STORIES TO THE CONTRARY ARE MERELY CONSPIRACY THEORIES?
  • ARE THE "WHITE HELMETS" MERELY A CIVILIAN SEARCH & RESCUE TEAM, OR ARE THEY A COVER FOR RADICAL ISLAMIC FIGHTERS?
  • DID THE U.S. INTENTIONALLY ARM RADICAL ISLAMISTS TO FIGHT ASSAD OR WAS IT ACCIDENTAL? HOW DID U.S. EQUIPMENT END UP IN THE HANDS OF ISIS?
  • IS IT TRUE ISRAEL FUNDED & ARMED AL-NUSRA FRONT, AN AL-QAEDA BRANCH? OR DID THEY MERELY RENDER MEDICAL AID TO SOME WOUNDED SYRIANS, A FEW OF WHOM BELONGED TO AL-NUSRA?

4a) NPR w/ Susan Rice, "Deadly Attack Highlights Failure To Eliminate Syria's Chemical Weapons" (podcast - 4:05 min.)
https://www.npr.org/2017/04/10/523311385/deadly-attack-highlights-failure-to-eliminate-syria-s-chemical-weapons

4b) RT, "US has ‘zero intelligence’ on Syrian conflict – fmr CIA officer [Philip Giraldi]" (video - 3:18 min.)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s28TtmWXQKk

4c) NowThis News, "How The White Helmets Were Mislabeled as Fake News" (video - 5:48 min.)
https://youtu.be/JJBdggFnJlc

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Cafe Walnut
703 Walnut Street · Philadelphia, PA
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