Deglobilization, China, and a new Cold War?

Hi everyone and welcome to our inaugural event! For our first event, we will have a discussion about whether we are entering a new era of deglobalization and a potential new Cold War with China.

Globalization (underpinned by a US security umbrella) has been a foundation of global economic growth especially in the last 30 years since the end of the Cold War. During that period millions were lifted out of poverty and living standards were raised across the world. At the same time there are those that argue the price for globalization include losses in blue collar work and the financialization of developed economies, rising inequality, and the damage to our environment.

Yet now it seems we are entering a period of deglobalization, where global trade and relations are deteriorating, not driven by fundamental economic or technological reasons, but by political ones. The main rift appears to be forming between the US and other western/ broadly democratic countries on one hand, and China (and since the Ukraine war, Russia) and her allies on the other. Populist political forces unleashed across the world have also put pressure on global trade and sown doubts on internationalist institutions and frameworks.

Recent policies limiting chip manufacturing and other high tech sectors from exporting to China is seen by many as a shot in the economic front of a new Cold War. Tensions (and spy balloons) are rising while companies are considering re-shoring their manufacturing to reduce political and supply chain risks. Every government seem to be taking a more hard line stance, including our Canadian government which recently described China as a "disruptive global power" in their new Indo-Pacific strategy.

There are those that celebrate this as being good for our national security and allows us to align our economics with our values. But would the splitting of the world once again into competing economic blocks along ideological lines really bring peace? Is this unavoidable or just a temporary dip? Should we be prepared to de-globalize and regionalize? What would that mean for the average person and their livelihood? This meetup will discuss these and other related topics.

Most importantly, we are here to meet interesting people and have stimulating conversations over drinks. It will be casual and we will try to have fun!

Note: We don't claim to be experts here, so any one with an interest in this topic is welcomed! But if you want a little background, here are some links that might give you more context:

A 10 min video on the basic reasons why deglobalization might be happening:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bhGb-BaGw2Q&t=78s

A brief article from Niall Ferguson about what it might not be happening
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/01/17/idea-of-de-globalization-is-a-mirage-says-historian-niall-ferguson.html

A longer article critiquing the idea of degloblization
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4559736-quick-thoughts-deglobalization-myth-or-reality