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The term “hot stove” goes back to the late 1800s / early 1900s. In the winter, especially in colder cities, people would literally gather around a potbelly stove in general stores, barbershops, train depots—basically anywhere warm—and just talk. And what did they talk about? Baseball.
Since there were no games being played in the winter, fans would speculate about trades, contracts, rumors, who was washed, who was about to break out. Total armchair GM behavior. So the offseason rumor mill became known as “hot stove talk.”
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