Python Ireland July 2025 Meetup

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Talk: Modelling Epidemics with Bayesian Models in Python

The presentation will introduce common ODE models for epidemic modeling, focusing on their application and historical advocacy in Ireland. A Jupyter notebook will demonstrate a Markov Chain Monte Carlo model fitted to Irish COVID-19 data, providing insights into infection lifetimes, forecast estimates, and sensitivity analyses for Ireland. The presenter will also discuss Python libraries for this work, comparing the experience to R/STAN. The target audience includes individuals with some Python proficiency and an interest in epidemic modeling but limited prior experience. A key objective is to identify community members who have experience with similar models during the pandemic. Ultimately, the presentation aims to survey how data was collected, applied to decisions, and communicated, fostering a community discussion rather than simply promoting the models.

Author: Peter Nolan

[Dublin-raised and Europe-based risk and data analyst and communicator specialising in financial and economic analysis.
Consultant business and risk analyst, product and programme manager to the financial services industry.]

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Venue: WorkDay

Big thanks to our sponsor for this edition: WorkDay