Python Ireland

Talk: Skill Estimation, Agents and the Condorcet Jury theorem.

The Condorcet Jury Theorem promises that groups are smarter than individuals — add more voices, get closer to the truth. But the theorem has a poison pill: it only works when people think independently. In this talk we'll use PyMC to build a Bayesian model that stress-tests collective decision-making, simulating how shared training, correlated thinking, and organisational "alignment" can quietly destroy the engine of collective intelligence. The results raise uncomfortable questions about what happens when everyone's reasoning runs through the same foundation model. If you're interested in Bayesian modelling, probabilistic programming, or just want a principled way to think about the epistemic cost of your AI toolchain, this one's for you.