If you hear hoofbeats, think horses before zebras before unicorns. But if you also hear the distinct barking sound made by zebras, update your first guess. In general terms, make the most simple guess in the light of all available evidence. If necessary, seek more evidence both for and against your hypothesis and its alternatives.

Bayesian philosophy of science clarifies and quantifies these fundamental principles of common sense and scientific reasoning. To this end, it uses *Bayes' rule,* a famous mathematical theorem named after its discoverer Thomas Bayes (1702-1761).

Bayes' rule can be cleverly visualized with building bricks and on the computer screen (see graphic above). This way, we can understand it with nothing more than elementary arithmetic. Thus, no prior knowledge is necessary, but if you'd like to challenge yourself in advance, try and see: [Can you solve the false positive riddle? - Alex Gendler (youtube.com)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1csFTDXXULY).

This meetup is free of any charge or other financial interest. For obvious reasons, however, everyone must purchase a drink from our host, Ajenjo Café.

Christian Schneider

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Common Sense in Numbers - An Introduction to Bayesian Philosophy of Science

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Natural & Social Science Seminars Madrid

Common Sense in Numbers - An Introduction to Bayesian Philosophy of Science

Natural & Social Science Seminars Madrid

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